Advertisement

European Journal for Security Research

, Volume 3, Issue 2, pp 95–114 | Cite as

About Discursive Storylines and Techno-Fixes: The Political Framing of the Implementation of Predictive Policing in Germany

  • Simon EgbertEmail author
Original Article

Abstract

One important reason for the current rise of predictive policing in Germany is the recent boost in the development of digital technologies and the associated possibility of analysing huge data sets at relatively low cost by utilising mathematically deduced algorithms. Economic motives also play a vital role in the implementation process, as it is hoped that policing can be organised more rationally by the more effective allocation of police patrols. However, in addition to technical and economic factors, the rise of predictive policing in Germany is above all a political phenomenon, involving the discursive shaping of domestic burglary as a security problem. Furthermore, the ways, how the technologies utilised for predictive crime data analysis are discursively referred to, play a vital role in this discourse. These new prediction tools facilitate rhetorical links for politicians and police authorities in legitimising their ambitions to fight crime and enhance public security, presenting their methods as innovative and effective and making these technologies important components of corresponding security discourses.

Keywords

Security discourse Security technologies Predictive policing Crime risks Political framing Domestic burglary 

Notes

Acknowledgements

The research for this paper was funded by the Fritz Thyssen foundation (Award Number 10.16.2.005SO).

References

  1. Andrejevic M (2017) To preempt a thief. Int J Commun 11:879–896Google Scholar
  2. Balogh DA (2016) Near repeat-prediction mit ‘PRECOBS’ bei der Stadtpolizei Zürich. Kriminalistik 70:335–341Google Scholar
  3. Bartsch T et al (2014) Phänomen Wohnungseinbruch—Taten, Täter, Opfer. Kriminalistik 68:483–490Google Scholar
  4. Beck C, McCue C (2009) Predictive policing: what can we learn from Wal-Mart and Amazon about fighting crime in a recession? Police Chief LXXVI, 11. http://acmcst373ethics.weebly.com/uploads/2/9/6/2/29626713/police-chief-magazine.pdf. Accessed 23 Aug 2017
  5. Belina B (2016) Predictive policing. Monatsschr Kriminol Strafrecht 99:85–100Google Scholar
  6. Bennett Moses C, Chan J (2016) Algorithmic prediction in policing: assumptions, evaluation, and accountability. Polic Soc.  https://doi.org/10.1080/10439463.2016.1253695 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Berliner-Reporter Live (2016) KrimPro—was ist das? Software soll Einbrüche vorhersagen! (video from press conference), 10.08.2016. https://www.facebook.com/berlinreporterlive/videos/vb.1556917707939425/1592848981012964/?type=2&theater. Accessed 25 Aug 2017
  8. Bijker WE, Hughes TP, Pinch T (eds) (2012) The social construction of technological systems. Anniversary Edition. MIT Press, CambridgeGoogle Scholar
  9. Bogomolov A (2014) Once upon a crime: towards crime prediction from demographics and mobile data. In: ICMI 2014. Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Multimodal Interaction. 12–16 November 2014, Istanbul, Turkey, pp 427–434. http://dx.doi.org/10.1145/2663204.2663254
  10. Borchers D (2015) Precrime per Predictive Policing: Das Internet der Dinge im Zeugenstand, 26.02.2015. https://www.heise.de/newsticker/meldung/Precrime-per-Predictive-Policing-Das-Internet-der-Dinge-im-Zeugenstand-2559840.html. Accessed 25 Aug 2017
  11. BR (Bayerischer Rundfunk) (2016) “Predictive Policing” bei LKA München. http://www.br.de/mediathek/video/sendungen/nachrichten/lka-muenchen-predictive-policing-100.html. Accessed 23 Aug 2017
  12. Bratton W, Morgan J, Malinowski S (2009) Fighting crime in the information age: the promise of predictive policing. LAPD Research Paper. https://publicintelligence.net/lapd-research-paper-fighting-crime-in-the-information-age-the-promise-of-predictive-policing/. Accessed 20 Sep 2017
  13. Bratton WJ, Morgan J, Malinowski S (2009) Fighting crime in the information age. The promise of predictive policing. In: Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Society of Criminology 2009, PhiladelphiaGoogle Scholar
  14. BSTMI (Bayerisches Staatsministerium des Innern, für Bau und Verkehr [The Bavarian Ministry of the Interior, for Building and Transport]) (2014) Sicherheitsbericht zum Beschluss des Bayer. Landtags vom 30. September 2014. http://www.stmi.bayern.de/assets/stmi/med/aktuell/161207_sicherheitsbericht_gesamt_n.pdf. Accessed 24 Aug 2017
  15. BSTMI (Bayerisches Staatsministerium des Innern, für Bau und Verkehr [The Bavarian Ministry of the Interior, for Building and Transport]) (2014) Bayernweite Kontrollaktion gegen Diebesbanden, 26.11.2014. https://www.stmi.bayern.de/med/pressemitteilungen/pressearchiv/2014/395b/index.php. Accessed 24 Aug 2017
  16. BSTMI (Bayerisches Staatsministerium des Innern, für Bau und Verkehr [The Bavarian Ministry of the Interior, for Building and Transport]) (2015) Wohnungspolitik in Bayern. Rede des Bayerischen Staatsministers des Innern, für Bau und Verkehr, Joachim Herrmann, anlässlich der 19. Generalversammlung des Eigenheimerverbands Bayern am 18. Juli 2015 in Garching. https://www.eigenheimerverband.de/downloads/1329/Wortlaut%20der%20Rede%20von%20Staatsminister%20Herrmann.pdf?1439895135. Accessed 24 Aug 2017
  17. BSTMI (Bayerisches Staatsministerium des Innern, für Bau und Verkehr [The Bavarian Ministry of the Interior, for Building and Transport]) (2015) Herrmann berichtet über Erfahrungen des ‘PRECOBS’-Tests in München und Mittelfranken, 24. June 2015. https://www.stmi.bayern.de/med/pressemitteilungen/pressearchiv/2015/204/index.php. Accessed 24 Aug 2017
  18. BSTMI (Bayerisches Staatsministerium des Innern, für Bau und Verkehr [The Bavarian Ministry of the Interior, for Building and Transport]) (2016) Herrmann stellt Sicherheitsbericht vor, 07.12.2016. https://www.stmi.bayern.de/med/pressemitteilungen/pressearchiv/2016/464/index.php. Accessed 24 Aug 2017
  19. Budras C (2015) Schütze sich, wer kann, 25.05.2015. http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/wie-der-staat-bei-der-hauseinbruch-bekaempfung-versagt-13608811.html. Accessed 23 Aug 2017
  20. Bühl J, Fuchs F (2014) Gesucht: Einbrecher der Zukunft, 12.09.2014. http://www.sueddeutsche.de/digital/polizei-software-zur-vorhersage-von-verbrechen-gesucht-einbrecher-der-zukunft-1.2115086. Accessed 25 Aug 2017
  21. Buzan B, Wæver O, de Wilde J (1998) Security: a new framework for analysis. Lynne Rienner, BoulderGoogle Scholar
  22. CDU BW (2015) Strobl fordert Ministerpräsident Kretschmann zum Handeln auf, 27.05.2017. http://www.cdu-bw.de/aktuelles/presse/presse-detail/artikel/strobl-fordert-ministerpraesident-kretschmann-zum-handeln-auf.html. Accessed 25 Aug 2017
  23. CDU NRW (2017) Zuhören. Entscheiden. Handeln. Regierungsprogramm der CDU für Nordrhein-Westfalen 2017-2022, 01.04.2017, https://www.cdu-nrw.de/sites/default/files/media/docs/2017-04-01_regierungsprogramm_cdu_fuer_nrw_2017-2022.pdf. Accessed 23 Aug 2017
  24. CDU NRW, FDP NRW (2017) Koalitionsvertrag für Nordrhein-Westfalen 2017-2022. https://www.cdu-nrw.de/sites/default/files/media/docs/vertrag_nrw-koalition_2017.pdf. Accessed 23 Aug 2017
  25. Chainey SP, da Silva BFA (2016) Examining the extent of repeat and near repeat victimisation of domestic burglaries in Belo Horizonte, Brazil. Crime Sci.  https://doi.org/10.1186/s40163-016-0049-6 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Chicago Data Portal (2017) Strategic subject list. https://data.cityofchicago.org/Public-Safety/Strategic-Subject-List/4aki-r3np. Accessed 22 Aug 2017
  27. Clarke RV (1993) Routine activity and rational choice. Transaction, New BrunswickGoogle Scholar
  28. Cohen LE, Felson M (1979) Social change and crime rate trends: a routine activity approach. Am Sociol Rev 44:588–608CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Cortesi M (2017) Polizeiliche Kriminalstatistik Stadt Zürich 2016, City of Zurich Security Department, 27.03.17. https://www.stadt-zuerich.ch/content/pd/de/index/stadtpolizei_zuerich/medien/medienmitteilungen/2017/maerz/polizeiliche-kriminalstatistik-stadt-zuerich-2016.html. Accessed 23 Aug 2017
  30. Dreißigacker A et al (2017) Wohnungseinbruchdiebstahl als Verbrechen—Was nützen die Neuregelungen zum Wohnungseinbruch? Neue Kriminalpolitik 29:321–333.  https://doi.org/10.5771/0934-9200-2017-3-321 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Egbert S (2017) Siegeszug der Algorithmen? Predictive Policing im deutschsprachigen Raum. Aus Polit Zeitgesch 67:17–23Google Scholar
  32. Elflein C et al (2014) Der Staat versagt, 13.10.2014. http://www.focus.de/immobilien/wohnen/politik-der-staat-versagt_id_4196533.html. Accessed 23 Aug 2017
  33. Gaskell A (2017) ThirdEye bring predictive policing inside the store. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/adi-gaskell/thirdeye-bring-predictive_b_9437996.html. Accessed 5 Aug 2017
  34. Gent A (2017) Could predictive policing lead to a real-life minority report? https://singularityhub.com/2017/02/02/could-predictive-policing-lead-to-a-real-life-minority-report/. Accessed 23 Sep 2017
  35. Gerstner D (2017) Predictive Policing als Instrument zur Prävention von Wohnungseinbruchdiebstahl. Evaluationsergebnisse zum baden-württembergischen Pilotprojekt P4. https://www.mpicc.de/files/pdf4/rib_50_gerstner_2017.pdf. Accessed 13 Dec 2017
  36. Gluba A (2014) Predictive Policing – eine Bestandsaufnahme. Kriminalistik 6/2014 S:347–352Google Scholar
  37. Gluba A (2016) Mehr offene Fragen als Antworten. Die Polizei 107:53–57Google Scholar
  38. Gluba A (2017) Der Modus Operandi bei Fällen der Near Repeat-Victimisation. Kriminalistik 71:369–375Google Scholar
  39. Gluba A, Pett A (2017) Predictive Policing: Ein (un)bekannter Ansatz. In: Möllers MHW, van Ooyen RC (eds) Jahrbuch Öffentliche Sicherheit 2016/2017. Verlag für Polizeiwissenschaft, Frankfurt, pp 431–440Google Scholar
  40. Groenemeyer A (2015) Soziale Konstruktionen von Ordnungsstörungen. Abweichung als Risiko. In: Dollinger B, Groenemeyer A, Rzepka, Dorothea (eds) Devianz als Risiko. Neue Perspektiven des Umgangs mit abweichendem Verhalten, Delinquenz und sozialer Auffälligkeit, Beltz Juventa, Weinheim, Basel, pp 9–43Google Scholar
  41. Groff ER, La Vigne NG (2002) Forecasting the future of predictive crime mapping. In: Tilley N (ed) Analysis for crime prevention: crime prevention studies, vol 13. Criminal Justice Press, Monsey, pp 29–57Google Scholar
  42. Guerette RT, Bowers KJ (2009) Assessing the extent of crime displacement and diffusion of benefits: a review of situational crime prevention evaluations. Criminology 47:1331–1368.  https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1745-9125.2009.00177.x CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  43. Heitmüller U (2017) Predictive Policing: Die deutsche Polizei zwischen Cyber-CSI und Minority Report, 17. April 2017. https://www.heise.de/newsticker/meldung/Predictive-Policing-Die-deutsche-Polizei-zwischen-Cyber-CSI-und-Minority-Report-3685873.html. Accessed 23 Aug 2017
  44. Herrmann J (2015) Aktuelles, 27.03.2015. https://www.joachimherrmann.de/index.php?ka=1&ska=1&idn=2360. Accessed 24 Aug 2017
  45. Hilscher M and Heeder M (directors) (2017) Pre-Crime [motion picture]. Rise and Shine Cinema, HamburgGoogle Scholar
  46. HMIS (Hessisches Ministerium des Innern und des Sports [Hessian Ministry of the Interior and Sport]) (2016) Innenminister Peter Beuth stellt Prognose-Software „KLB-operativ“vor, 20. July 2016. https://www.hessen.de/pressearchiv/pressemitteilung/innenminister-peter-beuth-stellt-prognose-software-klb-operativ-vor. Accessed 24 Aug 2017
  47. HMIS (Hessisches Ministerium des Innern und des Sports [Hessian Ministry of the Interior and Sport]) (2017) Innenminister Peter Beuth begrüßt Verschärfung bei Einbruchdiebstahl. https://www.hessen.de/presse/pressemitteilung/innenminister-peter-beuth-begruesst-verschaerfung-bei-einbruchdiebstahl-0. Accessed 24 Aug 2017
  48. Hughes TP (2004) Afterword. In: Rosner L (ed) The technological fix: how people use technology to create and solve problems. Routledge, New York, London, pp 208–210Google Scholar
  49. Johnson SD et al (2007) Space-time patterns of risk: a cross national assessment of residential burglary victimization. J Quant Criminol 23:201–219.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s10940-007-9025-3 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  50. Johnson SD, Guerette RT, Bowers KJ (2014) Crime displacement: what we know, what we don’t know, and what it means for crime reduction. J Exp Criminol 10:549–571.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s11292-014-9209-4 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  51. Kaufmann, FX (2012)[1973]) Sicherheit als soziologisches und Sozialpolitisches Problem. Reprint of 2nd ed. LIT, Berlin et alGoogle Scholar
  52. Kaufmann S (2016) Security through technology? Logic, ambivalence and paradoxes of technologised security. Eur J Secur Res 1:77–95.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s41125-016-0005-1 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  53. Keller R (2011) The sociology of knowledge approach to discourse (SKAD). Hum Stud 34:43–65.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s10746-011-9175-z CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  54. Keller R (2013) Doing discourse research: an introduction for social scientists. SAGE, Los AngelesCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  55. Krauel T (2013) Der Staat versagt bei seinem Kernauftrag, 15.05.2013. https://www.welt.de/debatte/kommentare/article116223952/Der-Staat-versagt-bei-seinem-Kernauftrag.html. Accessed 23 Aug 2017
  56. Kreissl R (2014) Assessing security technology’s impact: old tools for new problems. Sci Eng Ethics 20:659–673.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s11948-014-9529-9 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  57. Krempl S (2016) Kriminalitätsprognose: Berliner Polizei setzt auf Predictive Policing, 10.08.2016. https://www.heise.de/newsticker/meldung/Kriminalitaetsprognose-Berliner-Polizei-setzt-auf-Predictive-Policing-3291880.html. Accessed 25 Aug 2017
  58. Kroener IJ (2014) CCTV. A technology under the radar?. Ashgate, FarnhamGoogle Scholar
  59. Landtag NRW (2016) Drucksache 16/122344. Antrag der Fraktion der CDU Maßnahmenpaket zur Bekämpfung des Wohnungseinbruchsdiebstahls, 28.06.2016. https://www.landtag.nrw.de/portal/WWW/dokumentenarchiv/Dokument/MMD16-12344.pdf. Accessed 23 Aug 2017
  60. Latour B (2005) Reassembling the social. An introduction to actor-network-theory. Oxford University Press, OxfordGoogle Scholar
  61. Mantello P (2016) The machine that ate bad people: the ontopolitics of the precrime assemblage. Big Data Soc 3:1–11.  https://doi.org/10.1177/2053951716682538 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  62. Marx GT (1995) The engineering of social control: the search for the silver bullet. In: Hagan J, Peterson RD (eds) Crime and inequality. Stanford University Press, Stanford, pp 225–246Google Scholar
  63. Maguire M, McVie S (2017) Crime data and criminal statistics. A critical reflection. In: Liebling A, Maruna S, McAra L (eds) The Oxford handbook of criminology, 6th edn. Oxford University Press, Oxford, pp 163–189Google Scholar
  64. McCue C, Parker A (2003) Connecting the dots: data mining and predictive analytics in law enforcement and intelligences analysis. In: The Police Chief, 70(10). http://www.policechiefmagazine.org/connecting-the-dots-data-mining-and-predictive-analytics-in-law-enforcement-and-intelligence-analysis/. Accessed 7 Sep 2017
  65. MDR (Mitteldeutscher Rundfunk) (2016) Software sagt Einbruchszentren hervor. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mQvjRILRytU. Accessed 23 Aug 2017
  66. Mendola M (2016) one step further in the surveillance society: the case of predictive policing. http://techandlaw.net/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/One-Step-Further-in-the-Surveillance-Society_The-Case-of-Predictive-Policing.pdf. Accessed 18 Sep 2017
  67. MIK NRW (Ministerium für Inneres und Kommunales [Ministry for Internal and Communal Affairs]) (2017) NRW-Einbruchszahlen gehen im ersten Quartal 2017 30% zurück—Neue Prognose-Software eingesetzt. http://www.mik.nrw.de/startseite/kampf-gegen-einbrueche/skala.html. Accessed 23 Aug 2017
  68. Mohler GO et al (2011) Self-exciting point process modeling of crime. J Am Stat Assoc 106:100–108.  https://doi.org/10.1198/jasa.2011.ap09546 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  69. Mohler GO et al (2015) Randomized controlled field trials of predictive policing. J Am Stat Assoc 110:1399–1411.  https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.2015.1077710 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  70. Norris C, Armstrong G (1999) The maximum surveillance society: the rise of CCTV. Berg, Oxford, New YorkGoogle Scholar
  71. Perry WL et al. (2013) Predictive policing: the role of crime forecasting in law enforcement operations. Santa Monica et al: RAND. http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR200/RR233/RAND_RR233.pdf. Accessed 28 Feb 2017
  72. Polizeipräsident Berlin (2016) Kollege Computer hilft bei der Kriminalitätsprognose, 10.08.2016. https://www.berlin.de/polizei/polizeimeldungen/pressemitteilung.507506.php. Accessed 24 Aug 2017
  73. Saunders J, Hunt P, Hollywood JS (2016) Predictions put into practice: a quasi-experimental evaluation of Chicago’s predictive policing pilot. J Exp Criminol 12:347–371CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  74. Schneier B (2003) Beyond fear: thinking sensibly about security in an uncertain world. Copernicus, New YorkGoogle Scholar
  75. Schürmann D (2015) “SKALA”. Predictive Policing als praxisorientiertes Projekt der Polizei NRW. Presentation on the KI-Forum of the BKA on 25.06.2015, Wiesbaden. https://www.bka.de/SharedDocs/Downloads/DE/Publikationen/ForumKI/ForumKI2015/kiforum2015SchuermannPositionspapier.html. Accessed 23 Aug 2017
  76. Schweer T (2015) “Vor dem Täter am Tatort”—Musterbasierte Tatortvorhersagen am Beispiel des Wohnungseinbruchs. Die Krim 32:13–16Google Scholar
  77. Sidebottom A, Wortley R (2016) Environmental Criminology. In: Piquero AR (ed) The handbook of criminological theory. Wiley, Chichester, pp 156–181Google Scholar
  78. Sommerer L (2017) Geospatial predictive policing—research outlook & a call for legal debate. Neue Kriminalpolitik 29:147–164.  https://doi.org/10.5771/0934-9200-2017-2-147 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  79. Telep CW, Weisburd W (2013) Hot spots and place-based- policing. In: Bruinsma G, Weisburd D (eds) Encyclopedia of criminology and criminal justice. Springer, New York, pp 2352–2363Google Scholar
  80. Townsley M, Homel R, Chaseling J (2003) Infectious burglaries. A test of the near repeat hypothesis. Br J Criminol 43:615–633CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  81. Uchida CD (2014) Predictive policing. In: Bruinsma G, Weisburd W (eds) Encyclopedia of criminology and criminal justice. Springer, New York, pp 3871–3880CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  82. Valverde M (2001) Governing security, governing through security. In: Daniels RJ, Macklem P, Roach K (eds) The security of freedom: essays on Canada’s anti-terrorism bill. University of Toronto Press, Toronto, pp 82–92Google Scholar
  83. Wang X, Gerber MS, Brown DE (2012) Automatic crime prediction using events extracted from twitter posts. In: Shanchieh JY, Greenberg AM, Endsley M (eds) Social computing, behavioral-cultural modeling and prediction. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, pp 231–239CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  84. Weinberg AM (1994) The first nuclear era: the life and times of a technological fixer. AIP Press, New YorkGoogle Scholar
  85. Wieselmann B (2015) Prognosesoftware ‘PRECOBS’: computer gegen Einbrecher, 31.10.2015. http://www.swp.de/ulm/nachrichten/suedwestumschau/prognosesoftware-_’PRECOBS’_-computer-gegen-einbrecher-11815700.html. Accessed 25 Aug 2015

Copyright information

© Springer International Publishing AG, part of Springer Nature 2017

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Institute for Criminological ResearchUniversität HamburgHamburgGermany

Personalised recommendations