Skip to main content

Effect of Road, Environment, Driver, and Traffic Characteristics on Vehicle Emissions in Egypt

Abstract

Vehicles are a major source of transportation greenhouse gas emissions and the need to accurately quantify and monitor transportation-related emissions from vehicles is nowadays essential. Vehicle emissions are complex functions to be approximated in practice due to many variables affecting their outcome. The aim of this research is to study factors affecting different types of vehicle emissions on Egyptian roads. Models were calibrated using vehicle emissions records collected in the period 2018/2019 and data were recorded in the field for eight types of vehicles. Emission data were classified into three categories according to the fuel type (diesel, natural gas, and petrol vehicles). A comparative analysis of various statistical modelling techniques was used to predict vehicle emission rates as a function of six independent variables for vehicle emissions. The linear regression model with link function of a Log was found to be the best generalized regression model to represent the correlation Between CO2, CO and NOX emissions for diesel vehicles, whereas the Linear Regression Model with Link Function of Identity was a good representative for the relationship of HC emission for diesel vehicles. Natural gas and petrol vehicle emissions (CO2, CO, HC, and NOX) were best represented with the linear regression model with link function of Log. Amongst the studied independent variables, changes in the ambient pressure (P) and numbers of rotations per minute for vehicle engine (RPM) were found to be directly proportional with gas emission for all the three types of vehicles in this study. In addition to these factors, increase of emissions from diesel vehicles was also related to increasing vehicle speed (V), ambient temperature (T) and relative humidity (RH), whereas emissions from natural gas and petrol vehicles were found to increase also with road grade (G) (both), and ambient temperature (T) (natural gas only).

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution.

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4

Data availability

Data will be made available upon request.

References

  1. EEAA (2016) Egypt Third National Communication under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). In: Cairo, Egypt: Egyptian Environmental Affairs Agency, Ministry of State for Environmental Affairs

  2. Lamb WF, Wiedmann T, Pongratz J, Andrew R, Crippa M, Olivier JGJ, Wiedenhofer D, Mattioli G, Al Khourdajie A, House J (2021) A review of trends and drivers of greenhouse gas emissions by sector from 1990 to 2018. Environ Res Lett 16:073005

    Article  Google Scholar 

  3. Creutzig F, Roy J, Lamb WF et al (2018) Towards demand-side solutions for mitigating climate change. Nat Clim Change 8:260–263. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0121-1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  4. Mattioli G, Roberts C, Steinberger JK, Brown A (2020) The political economy of car dependence: a systems of provision approach. Energy Res Soc Sci 66:101486. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2020.101486

    Article  Google Scholar 

  5. Milovanoff A, Posen ID, MacLean HL (2020) Electrification of light-duty vehicle fleet alone will not meet mitigation targets. Nat Clim Change 10:1102–1107

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. Mei H, Wang L, Wang M, Zhu R, Wang Y, Li Y, Zhang R, Wang B, Bao X (2021) Characterization of exhaust CO, HC and NOx emissions from light-duty vehicles under real driving conditions. Atmosphere 12:1125

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. Nobili F, Bella F, Llopis-Castelló D, Camacho-Torregrosa FJ, García A (2019) Environmental effects of road geometric and operational features. Transport Res Procedia 37:385–392

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. De Nunzio G, Laraki M, Thibault L (2021) Road traffic dynamic pollutant emissions estimation: from macroscopic road information to microscopic environmental impact. Atmosphere 12:53

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. Liu Y, Yuan Y, Guan H, Sun X, Huang C (2021) Technology and threshold: an empirical study of road passenger transport emissions. Res Transp Business Manage 100487:2210–5395

    Google Scholar 

  10. Murrell D (1980) Passenger car fuel economy EPA and road. In: US Environmental Protection Agency, p 305

  11. Ko J, Park D, Lim H, Hwang I (2011) Who produces the most CO2 emissions for trips in the Seoul metropolis area? Transp Res Part D 16:358–364

    Article  Google Scholar 

  12. US Environmental Protection Agency (1997) Development of speed correction cycles. In: Carlson TR, Austin TC (eds) Sierra Research, Report No. M6.SPD.001. US Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC

  13. Shirmohammadi H, Hadadi F, Saeedian M (2019) Clustering analysis of drivers based on behavioral characteristics regarding road safety. Int J Civ Eng 17:1327–1340

    Article  Google Scholar 

  14. Shirmohammadi H, Hadadi F (2017) Assessment of Drowsy drivers by fuzzy logic approach based on multinomial logistic regression analysis. Int J Comput Sci Netw Secur 17(4):298–305

    Google Scholar 

  15. Husch D (1998) Synchro 3.2 user guide. Trafficware, Berkeley

  16. Marsden G, Bell M, Reynolds S (2001) Towards a real-time microscopic emissions model. Transp Res Part D 6(1):37–60

    Article  Google Scholar 

  17. Hallmark SL, Randall G, Fomunung I (2002) Characterizing on-road variables that affect passenger vehicle modal operation. Transp Res Part D: Transp Environ 7(2):81–98

    Article  Google Scholar 

  18. Houk J (2004) Making use of MOBILE60s capabilities for modeling start emissions. In: Proceedings of the A and WMA’s 97th annual conference and exhibition (1884), pp 5115–5130

  19. Int-Panis L, Beckx C, Broekx S, Ronghui L (2006) Modelling instantaneous traffic emission and the influence of traffic speed limits. Sci Total Env 371(1–3):270–285

    Article  Google Scholar 

  20. Int-Panis L, Beckx C, Broekx S, De-Vlieger I, Schrooten L, Degraeuwe B, Pelkmans L (2011) Pm, No X and CO2 emission reductions from speed management policies in Europe. Transp Policy 18(1):32–37

    Article  Google Scholar 

  21. Ya-Wen K, Chi-Hung C (2006) Characterization of large fleets of vehicle exhaust emissions in middle Taiwan by remote sensing Y.-W. Ko, C.-H. Cho. Sci Total Env 354:75–82

    Article  Google Scholar 

  22. Nesamani KS, Chu L, McNally MG, Jayakrishnan R (2007) Estimation of vehicular emissions by capturing traffic variations. Atmos Env 41(14):2996–3008

    Article  Google Scholar 

  23. Boriboonsomsin K, Barth M (2009) Impacts of road grade on fuel consumption and carbon dioxide emissions evidenced by use of advanced navigation systems. Transp Res Rec J Transp Res Board 2139(1):21–30

    Article  Google Scholar 

  24. Zhang W (2015) Moving towards sustainability: road grades and on-road emissions of heavy-duty vehicles—a case study. Sustainability 7:12644–12671. https://doi.org/10.3390/su70912644

    Article  Google Scholar 

  25. Sider T (2016) Quantifying the effects of input aggregation and model randomness on regional transportation emission inventories. Transportation 43:315–335

    Article  Google Scholar 

  26. US Environmental Protection Agency (2011) Air emissions sources. http://www.epa.gov/air/emissions/index.htm

  27. Abou-Senna H (2011) Microscopic Assessment of transportation emissions on limited access highways, electronic theses and dissertations, p 2461

  28. Myunghoon K (2016) Incorporating vehicle emission models into the highway planning and design process: application on vertical crest curves Ph.D. In: thesis, Texas A&M Transportation Institute, Texas A&M University, TAMU, p 3135

  29. Llopis-Castelló D (2018) Impact of horizontal geometric design of two-lane rural roads on vehicle co2 emissions. Transp Res Part D 2018:59

    Google Scholar 

  30. Perugu H (2018) Emission modeling of light-duty vehicles in India using the revamped VSP-based MOVES model: the case study of Hyderabad Perugu, H. Transp Res Part D. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2018.01.031

    Article  Google Scholar 

  31. Cicero-Fernández P, Long JR, Winer AM (1997) Effects of grades and other loads on on-road emissions of hydrocarbons and carbon monoxide. J Air Waste Manag Assoc 47:898–904

    Article  Google Scholar 

  32. Nelder JA, Wedderburn RWM (1972) Generalized linear models. J R Stat Soc Ser A (Stat Soc) 135(3):370–384

    Article  Google Scholar 

  33. AASHTO (2018) Green book-a policy on geometric design of highways and streets (5th ed.). American Association of State and Highway Transportation Officials, Washington, DC

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Fabio Tosti.

Ethics declarations

Conflict of interest

On behalf of all authors, the corresponding author states that there is no conflict of interest.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Ramadan, I., El Toukhy, M., Hussien, K.Z. et al. Effect of Road, Environment, Driver, and Traffic Characteristics on Vehicle Emissions in Egypt. Int J Civ Eng (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40999-022-00729-w

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Revised:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40999-022-00729-w

Keywords

  • Vehicle emissions
  • Diesel vehicles
  • Natural gas vehicles
  • Petrol vehicles
  • Multi-factor emission modelling