Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Modelling determinants of geographical Patterns in the Marital Statuses of Women in Nigeria

  • Published:
Spatial Demography Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Marriage is an important social, cultural, and biological aspect of human life but is often affected by societal changes leading to differences in family formation and reproductive behaviour. Changes in marital patterns are component of transformations in a society’s social structure. Variations in marriage patterns exist within and across countries and over time. We examine the trends and spatial patterns of marital statuses among women of reproductive age (15–49 years) in Nigeria and further determine the associated factors based on the country’s north–south divide. Data were sourced from the Nigeria demographic and health survey conducted in 2003, 2008, 2013, and 2018, and the marital patterns were classified into four categories: never married, married, cohabiting, and formerly married. A Bayesian multinomial spatial model that simultaneously estimates parameters of different forms through a geo-additive predictor was adopted, and inference was based on Markov chain Monte Carlo. Findings reveal a north–south divide in marriage patterns. Women in the northern part of the country have a higher likelihood of being in marital union, while those in the south have a higher likelihood of cohabitation. A somewhat east–west divide was obtained for formerly married. Religion and ethnicity were found to be the major factors that account for differences in marital patterns across the divide and based on rural and urban residency. Cultural practices dictated by these variables would, therefore, continue to shape marital patterns and, by extension, fertility in Nigeria. The factors are hence important to be considered in marriage related policy formulation.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Adamu, H., Yusuf, A., Tunau, K., & Yahaya, M. (2017). Perception and fctors influencing early marriage in a semi-urban community of Sokoto state, North-West Nigeria. Annals of International Medical and Dental Research, 3(5), 6–12.

    Google Scholar 

  • Adebayo, S. B., Gayawan, E., Ujuju, C., & Ankomah, A. (2013). Modelling geographical variations and determinants of use of modern family planning methods among women of reproductive age in Nigeria. Journal of Biosocial Science, 45(1), 57–77. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0021932012000326.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Adebowale, A. S., Fagbamigbe, A. F., & Adebayo, A. M. (2016). Regional differences in adolescent childbearing in Nigeria. Journal of Population and Social Studies, 24(2), 101–116.

    Google Scholar 

  • Adebowale, A. S., Fagbamigbe, A. F., Okareh, T. O., & Lawal, G. O. (2012). Survival analysis of timing of first marriage among women of reproductive age in Nigeria: Regional differences. African Journal of Reproductive Health, 16(4), 95–107.

    Google Scholar 

  • Adedini, S. A., Odimegwu, C. O., Imasiku, E. N., Ononokpono, D. N., & Ibisomi, L. (2015). Regional variations in infant and child mortality in Nigeria: A multilevel analysis. Journal of Biosocial Science, 47(2), 165–187.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Adedini, S. A., Somefun, S. D., Odimegwu, C. O., & Ntoimo, L. F. C. (2020). Union dissolution–divorce, separation, and widowhood in Sub-Saharan Africa: Trends, patterns, and determinants. In C. O. Odimegwu (Ed.), Family demography and post-2015 development agenda in Africa. Cham: Springer.

    Google Scholar 

  • Adekanmbi, D. B., Enang, E. I., Obisesan, K. O., & Oniyide, O. R. (2010). Statistical investigation of the impact of timing of marriage on marital stability of female Nigerians. Global Journal of Pure and Applied Sciences., 16(1), 93–113.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Alabi, O., Shamaki, M. A., Omisakin, O. A., Giro, M., & Odusin, E. K. (2020). Family and household issues in Northern Nigeria: Change and continuity. In C. O. Odimegwu (Ed.), Family Demography and Post-2015 Development Agenda in Africa. Cham: Springer.

    Google Scholar 

  • Anglewicz, P. (2012). Migration, marital change, and HIV infection in Malawi. Demography, 49(1), 239–265.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Animasahun, R. A., & Fatile, E. A. F. (2011). Patterns of marital instability among married couples in Lagos, Nigeria. Journal of African Studies and Development, 3(10), 192–199.

    Google Scholar 

  • Belitz, C., Brezger, A., Klein, N., Kneib, T., Lang, S., & Umlauf, N. (2015). BayesX - Bayesian inference in structured additive regression models. Retrieved 20 March, 2016, from http://www.uni-goettingen.de/de/bayesx/550513.html.

  • Bianchi, S., Lesnard, L., Nazio, T., & Raley, S. (2014). Gender and time allocation of cohabiting and married women and men in France, Italy, and the United States. Demographic Research, 31(8), 183–216.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Caldwell, J. C., Orubuloye, I. O., & Caldwell, P. (1992). Fertility decline in Africa: A new type of transition. Population and Development Review., 18(2), 211–242.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Callaghan, J. E. M., Gambo, Y., & Fellin, L. C. (2015). Hearing the silences: Adult Nigerian women’s accounts of early marriages. Feminism and Psychology, 25(4), 506–527. https://doi.org/10.1177/0959353515590691.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Clark, S., & Brauner-Otto, S. (2015). Divorce in sub-Saharan Africa:- Are unions becoming less stable? Population and Development Review, 41(4), 583–605.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dintwat, K. (2010). Changing family structure in Botswana. Journal of Comparative Family Studies, 42(3), 281–297.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fahrmeir, L., & Kneib, T. (2011). Bayesian smoothing and regression for longitudinal, spatial and event history data (Vol 36, Oxford Statistical Science Series). New York: Oxford University Press Inc.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fahrmeir, L., Kneib, T., Lang, S., & Marx, B. (2013). Regression: Models, methods and applications. Berlin Heidelberg: Springer.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Flowerdew, R., & Al-Hamad, A. (2004). The relationship between marriage, divorce and migration in a British data set. Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, 30(2), 339–351.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • FMWASD. (2016). National strategy to end child marriage in Nigeria (2016–2021). Abuja: Federal Ministry of women Affairs and Social Development, Nigeria.

    Google Scholar 

  • Garenne, M. (2004). Age at marriage and modernisation in sub-Saharan Africa. Southern African Journal of Demography, 9(2), 59–79.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gayawan, E., & Adebayo, S. B. (2013). A Bayesian semiparametric multilevel survival modelling of age at first birth in Nigeria. Demographic Research, 28(45), 1339–1372.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gayawan, E., & Adebayo, S. B. (2014). Spatial pattern and determinants of age at marriage in Nigeria using a geoAdditive survival model. Mathematical Population Studies, 21(2), 112–124. https://doi.org/10.1080/08898480.2014.892336.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gayawan, E., Adebayo, S. B., Ipinyomi, R. A., & Iyebola, B. (2010). Modeling ferility curves in Africa. Demographic Research., 22(10), 211–236.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gungor, D. (2020). Religious acculturation. In S. Hupp & J. D. Jewell (Eds.), The Encyclopedia of Child and Adolescent Development. Willy.

  • Isiugo-Abanihe, U. C., Ebigbola, J. A., & Adewuyi, A. A. (1993). Urban nuptiality patterns and marital fertility in Nigeria. Journal of Biosocial Science, 25(4), 483–498.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kalmijn, M. (2007). Explaing cross-national differences in marriage, cohabitation, and divorce in Europe 1990–2000. Population Studies, 61, 243–263.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Klein, N., Kneib, T., Lang, S., & Sohn, A. (2015). Bayesian structured additive distributional regression with an application to regional income inequality in Germany. Annals of Applied Statistics, 9(2), 1024–1052.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Koski, A., Clark, S., & Nandi, A. (2017). Has child marriage declined in sub-Saharan Africa? An analysis of trends in 31 countries. Population and Development Review, 43(1), 7–29.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lerman, R.I. (2002). How do marriage, cohabitation and single parenthood affect the material hardships of families with children? United States Department of Health and Human services.

  • Little, W., & McGivern, R. (2013). Introduction to Sociology (1st Canadian). Houston: OpenStax College.

    Google Scholar 

  • Magadi, M. A., & Agwanda, A. O. (2009). Determinants of transitions to first sexual intercourse, marriage and pregnancy among female adolescents: Evidence from South Nyanza Kenya. Journal of Biosocial Science, 41(3), 409–427.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Marston, M., Slaymaker, E., Cremin, I., Floyd, S., McGrath, N., Kasamba, I., et al. (2009). Trends in marriage and time spent single in sub-Saharan Africa: A comparative analysis of six population-based cohort studies and nine Demographic and Health Surveys. Sexually Transmitted Infections, 85(Suppl 1), i64–i71.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mcginn, K. L., & Oh, E. (2017). Gender, social class, and women’s employment. Current Opinion in Psychology, 18, 84–88.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Michel, G. (2014). Trends in marriage and contraception in Sub-Saharan Africa: A longitudinal perspective on factors of fertility decline. DHS Analytical Studies No. 42. Rockville, Maryland: ICF International.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mobolaji, J. W., Fatusi, A. O., & Adedini, S. A. (2020). Ethnicity, religious affiliation and girl-child marriage: A cross-sectional study of nationally representative sample of female adolescents in Nigeria. BMC Public Health. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-020-08714-5.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Modo, I. V. O. (2001). Migrant culture and changing face of family structure in lesotho. Journal of Comparative Family Studies, 32(3), 443–452.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mumcu, A., & Saglam, I. (2008). Marriage formation/dissolution and marital distribution in a two-period economic model of matching with cooperative bargaining. Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, 11(4), 3.

    Google Scholar 

  • National Bureau of Economic Research (2020). The changing nature of marriage and divorce Massachusetts Ave., Cambridge. Retrieved 8 February, 2020, from www.Nber.Org/Digest/Nov07/W12944.Htm.

  • NPC, & ICF International (2009). Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey 2008. Abuja, Nigeria and Rockville, Maryland, USA: National Population Commission [Nigeria] and ICF International.

  • Nwokocha, E. E. (2015). In D. Layiwola (Ed.), The Igbo in Ibadan: Migration, integration and challenges. The City State of Ibadan Texts and Contexts. Book Builders.

  • Odimegwu, C. O., Wet, N. D., Adedini, S. A., & Appunni, S. (2020). Family demography in Sub-Saharan Africa: Systematic review of family research. In C. O. Odimegwu (Ed.), Family demography and post-2015 development agenda in Africa (pp. 9–56). Cham: Springer.

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Olutayo, A. O. (1999). The Igbo entrepreneur in the political economy of Nigeria. African Study Monographs., 20(3), 147–174.

    Google Scholar 

  • Omideyi, A. K., & Omideyi, A. K. (1986). Trends in nuptiality patterns of women in Nigeria. Genus, 42(1/2), 113–123.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ononokpono, DN, Odimegwu, CO, Adedini, SA, & Imasiku, ENS (2016). Ethnic diversity and maternal health care in Nigeria. Women's Reproductive Health, 3 (1), 45–59.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Otite, O. (1991). Marriage and family systems in Nigeria. International Journal of Sociology of the Family, 21(2), 15–54.

    Google Scholar 

  • Pazvakawambwa, L., Indongo, N., & Kazembe, L. N. (2013). Explaining marital patterns and trends in Namibia: A regression analysis of 1992, 2000 and 2006 demographic and survey data. PLoS ONE, 8(8), e70394. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0070394.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rashid, S. F. (2006). Emerging changes in reproductive behaviuor among married adolescent girls in urban slum in Dhaka Bangladesh. Reproductive Health Matters, 14(27), 151–159.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sassler, S., & Lichter, D. T. (2020). Cohabitation and marriage: Complexity and diversity in union formation patterns. Journal of Marriage and Family, 82, 35–61.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shapiro, D., & Gebreselassie, T. (2014). Marriage in Sub-Saharan Africa: Trends, determinants, and consequences. Population Research Policy Review, 33, 229–255. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11113-013-9287-4.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Taghizadeh, Z., Behmanesh, F., & Ebadi, A. (2016). Marriage patterns and childbearing: Results from a quantitative study in North of Iran. Global Journal of Health Science, 8(3), 1–9.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Takyi, B. K., & Broughton, C. L. (2006). Marital stability in sub-Saharan Africa: Do women’s autonomy and socioeconomic situation matter? Journal of Family and Economic Issues, 27(1), 113–132.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • United Nations. (2016). Changing patterns of marriage and unions across the world population Facts. Geneva: Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

The authors wish to thank MEASURE DHS and ICF International for permission to use the Nigeria DHS data.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Sociology and Anthropology, University of Uyo, Uyo, Nigeria

    Dorothy N. Ononokpono

  2. Department of General Studies, Federal University of Technology, Akure, Nigeria

    Olukemi G. Adebola

  3. Department of Statistics, Federal University of Technology, Akure, Nigeria

    Ezra Gayawan

  4. Center for Population Studies , State University of Campinas , Campinas , Brazil

    Ezra Gayawan

  5. College of Medicine, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria

    Adeniyi F. Fagbamigbe

Authors
  1. Dorothy N. Ononokpono
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Olukemi G. Adebola
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Ezra Gayawan
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Adeniyi F. Fagbamigbe
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Dorothy N. Ononokpono.

Ethics declarations

Conflict of interest

On behalf of all authors, the corresponding author states that there is no conflict of interest.

Additional information

Publisher's Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Ononokpono, D.N., Adebola , O.G., Gayawan , E. et al. Modelling determinants of geographical Patterns in the Marital Statuses of Women in Nigeria. Spat Demogr 10, 283–310 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40980-020-00072-5

Download citation

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40980-020-00072-5

Keywords

Search

Navigation