Abstract
Building materials and their centennial metabolic patterns offer a perspective from which to understand a city’s past, present, and future, but existing studies mostly focus on short-term metabolism. By investigating Hong Kong’s building material stock and flow (or building material metabolism, BMM), this study aims to understand the centennial evolution of a city with a rich history, international status, advanced economy, and close connection with the world. We quantify BMM using the stock-driven approach, derive flows based on stock changes, and interpret its patterns based on temporal and correlation (with socioeconomic factors) analyses, respectively. We find that, by the mid-2030s, total building material stock may saturate at around 417.93 Mt with a rough inflow–outflow balance of 13.29 Mt/year, but stock per capita has plateaued at about 53.67 t/capita since the mid-2010s. The long-term changes in both building material stock and flow comply with an S-curve, shaped mainly by industrialization and subsequent deindustrialization but also fluctuating due to key socioeconomic events. Based on a stock productivity comparison, we also find that Hong Kong has achieved and sustained an advanced economy via a lower BMM requirement than other typical developed economies, indicating a more material-efficient development pathway. These findings not only provide insights into the centennial BMM trajectory and its interaction with socioeconomic factors, but also offer historical experience and sustainable development implications for developing economies, especially those in mainland China and throughout Asia.
Article highlights
Quantified Hong Kong’s building material stock and flow changes from 1910 to 2050.
Building material stock and flow comply with an S-curve pattern shaped by industrialization and deindustrialization.
Hong Kong has achieved and sustained an advanced economy via a more material-efficient pathway.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
Data availability
No datasets were generated or analysed during the current study.
Change history
24 April 2024
The original version is updated because the University name in the affiliation 1 appears as University of Hong. However, the correct university name should read as University of Hong Kong.
References
Adams D, Hastings E (2001) Urban renewal in Hong Kong: transition from development corporation to renewal authority. Land Use Policy 18(3):245–258. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0264-8377(01)00019-9
Allwood JM, Cullen JM, Milford RL (2010) Options for achieving a 50% cut in industrial carbon emissions by 2050. Environmental science & technology. https://doi.org/10.1021/es902909k
Arora M, Raspall F, Cheah L, Silva A (2019) Residential building material stocks and component-level circularity: the case of Singapore. J Clean Prod 216:239–248
Athanassiadis A, Bouillard P, Crawford RH, Khan AZ (2017) Towards a dynamic approach to urban metabolism: tracing the temporal evolution of Brussels’ urban metabolism from 1970 to 2010. J Ind Ecol 21(2):307–319. https://doi.org/10.1111/jiec.12451
Augiseau V, Barles S (2017) Studying construction materials flows and stock: a review. Resour Conserv Recycl 123:153–164. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2016.09.002
Augiseau V, Kim E (2021) Spatial characterization of construction material stocks: the case of the Paris region. Resour Conserv Recycl 170:105512. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2021.105512
Bleischwitz R, Nechifor V, Winning M, Huang B, Geng Y (2018) Extrapolation or saturation–revisiting growth patterns, development stages and decoupling. Glob Environ Change 48:86–96. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.11.008
Boyden S, Millar S, Newcombe K, O’Neill B (1981) The ecology of a city and its people: the case of Hong Kong. Australian National University. https://doi.org/http://hdl.handle.net/1885/114952
Broto VC, Allen A, Rapoport E (2012) Interdisciplinary perspectives on urban metabolism. J Ind Ecol 16(6):851–861. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1530-9290.2012.00556.x
Cao Z, Shen L, Løvik AN, Müller DB, Liu G (2017) Elaborating the history of our cementing societies: an in-use stock perspective. Environ Sci Technol 51(19):11468–11475. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.7b03077
Cao Z, Shen L, Zhong S, Liu L, Kong H, Sun Y (2018) A probabilistic dynamic material flow analysis model for Chinese urban housing stock. J Ind Ecol 22(2):377–391. https://doi.org/10.1111/jiec.12579
Carroll JM (2007) A concise history of Hong Kong. New York: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers. http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0261-5177(21)00177-1/sref13
Chen W-Q, Graedel T (2015) In-use product stocks link manufactured capital to natural capital. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 112(20), 6265–6270. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1406866112
Chen T, Burnett J, Chau CK (2001) Analysis of embodied energy use in the residential building of Hong Kong. Energy 26(4):323–340. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0360-5442(01)00006-8
Chiu SW (2019) City-States in the global economy: industrial restructuring in Hong Kong and Singapore. Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9780429046704
CMAB (2018) The Greater Bay Area Cities–Hong Kong. Retrieved 20 December 2022 from https://www.bayarea.gov.hk/en/about/hongkong.html
Dai T, Yue Z (2023) The evolution and decoupling of in-use stocks in Beijing. Ecol Econ 203:107606. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2022.107606
DataBank (2022) The World Bank: Hong Kong Urban Population 1960–2022. Retrieved 14 December 2022 from https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS?locations=HK
Deng T, Fu C, Zhang Y (2022) What is the connection of urban material stock and socioeconomic factors? A case study in Chinese cities. Resour Conserv Recycl 185:106494. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2022.106494
Dijst M, Worrell E, Böcker L, Brunner P, Davoudi S, Geertman S, Harmsen R, Helbich M, Holtslag AA, Kwan M-P (2018) Exploring urban metabolism—towards an interdisciplinary perspective. Resour Conserv Recycl 132:190–203. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2017.09.014
Ding Y, Geng X, Wang P, Chen W-Q (2021) How material stocks sustain economic growth: evidence from provincial steel use in China. Resour Conserv Recycl 171:105635. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2021.105635
Dong L, Fujita T, Dai M, Geng Y, Ren J, Fujii M, Wang Y, Ohnishi S (2016) Towards preventative eco-industrial development: an industrial and urban symbiosis case in one typical industrial city in China. J Clean Prod 114:387–400. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2015.05.015
Fishman T, Schandl H, Tanikawa H, Walker P, Krausmann F (2014) Accounting for the material stock of nations. J Ind Ecol 18(3):407–420
Fishman T, Schandl H, Tanikawa H (2016) Stochastic analysis and forecasts of the patterns of speed, acceleration, and levels of material stock accumulation in society. Environ Sci Technol 50(7):3729–3737. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.5b05790
Gassner A, Lederer J, Fellner J (2020) Material stock development of the transport sector in the city of Vienna. J Ind Ecol 24(6):1364–1378. https://doi.org/10.1111/jiec.13024
Gerst MD (2009) Linking material flow analysis and resource policy via future scenarios of in-use stock: an example for copper. Environ Sci Technol 43(16):6320–6325. https://doi.org/10.1021/es900845v
Gerst MD, Graedel TE (2008) In-use stocks of metals: status and implications. Environ Sci Technol 42(19):7038–7045. https://doi.org/10.1021/es800420p
Gontia P, Thuvander L, Ebrahimi B, Vinas V, Rosado L, Wallbaum H (2019) Spatial analysis of urban material stock with clustering algorithms: a northern European case study. J Ind Ecol 23(6):1328–1343
Grimm NB, Grove JG, Pickett ST, Redman CL (2000) Integrated approaches to long-term studies of urban ecological systems: Urban ecological systems present multiple challenges to ecologists—Pervasive human impact and extreme heterogeneity of cities, and the need to integrate social and ecological approaches, concepts, and theory. BioScience, 50(7), 571–584. https://doi.org/10.1641/0006-3568(2000)050[0571:IATLTO]2.0.CO;2
Guo J, Miatto A, Shi F, Tanikawa H (2019) Spatially explicit material stock analysis of buildings in Eastern China metropoles. Resour Conserv Recycl 146:45–54. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2019.03.031
Guo J, Fishman T, Wang Y, Miatto A, Wuyts W, Zheng L, Wang H, Tanikawa H (2021) Urban development and sustainability challenges chronicled by a century of construction material flows and stocks in Tiexi, China. J Ind Ecol 25(1):162–175. https://doi.org/10.1111/jiec.13054
Han J, Chen W-Q, Zhang L, Liu G (2018) Uncovering the spatiotemporal dynamics of urban infrastructure development: a high spatial resolution material stock and flow analysis. Environ Sci Technol 52(21):12122–12132. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.8b03111
Heeren N, Hellweg S (2019) Tracking construction material over space and time: prospective and geo-referenced modeling of building stocks and construction material flows. J Ind Ecol 23(1):253–267. https://doi.org/10.1111/jiec.12739
HKBD (2023) Monthly Digests of Building Department (December 2022). Retrieved 10 January, 2023 from https://www.bd.gov.hk/doc/en/whats-new/monthly-digests/Md202212e.pdf
HKC&SD (2022) Annual Digest of Statistics. Retrieved 12 December 2022 from https://www.censtatd.gov.hk/en/web_table.html?id=32
HKEPD (2023) Restoration and Afteruse of Closed Landfills. Retrieved 20 February, 2023 from https://reurl.cc/EGZDe0
HKGRO (2022) Hong Kong Government Reports Online 1842–1941. Retrieved 14 December 2022 from https://sunzi.lib.hku.hk/hkgro/browse.jsp
HKHA (2022) Annual report of the Hong Kong Housing Authority. Retrieved 8 December 2022 from https://reurl.cc/pLxGoa
HKHA (2019) Public Housing Development. Retrieved June 23, 2023 from https://shorturl.at/hFGQ5
HKHA (2014) Hong Kong Contractors’ Bid-rigging is Behind Rising Prices. Retrieved June 19, 2023 from https://shorturl.at/eCITX
HKHS (2022) Annual Report of the Hong Kong Housing Society. Retrieved 10 December 2022 from https://reurl.cc/gZzdxb
HKRVD (2021) Hong Kong Property Review. Retrieved 8 December 2022 from https://www.rvd.gov.hk/en/publications/hkpr_previous.html
Huang C, Han J, Chen W-Q (2017) Changing patterns and determinants of infrastructures’ material stocks in Chinese cities. Resour Conserv Recycl 123:47–53. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2016.06.014
Huang B, Zhao F, Fishman T, Chen W-Q, Heeren N, Hertwich EG (2018) Building material use and associated environmental impacts in China 2000–2015. Environ Sci Technol 52(23):14006–14014. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.8b04104
Kennedy C, Cuddihy J, Engel-Yan J (2007) The changing metabolism of cities. J Ind Ecol 11(2):43–59. https://doi.org/10.1162/jie.2007.1107
Kennedy C, Pincetl S, Bunje P (2011) The study of urban metabolism and its applications to urban planning and design. Environ Pollut 159(8–9) 1965–1973. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2010.10.022
Khan AM (2001) Reducing traffic density: the experience of Hong Kong and Singapore. J Urban Technol 8(1):69–87. https://doi.org/10.1080/10630730120052181
Kleemann F, Lederer J, Rechberger H, Fellner J (2017) GIS-based analysis of Vienna’s material stock in buildings. J Ind Ecol 21(2):368–380. https://doi.org/10.1111/jiec.12446
Krausmann F, Wiedenhofer D, Lauk C, Haas W, Tanikawa H, Fishman T, Miatto A, Schandl H, Haberl H (2017) Global socioeconomic material stocks rise 23-fold over the 20th century and require half of annual resource use. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 114(8), 1880–1885. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1613773114
Lauinger D, Billy RG, Vásquez F, Müller DB (2021) A general framework for stock dynamics of populations and built and natural environments. J Ind Ecol 25(5):1136–1146. https://doi.org/10.1111/jiec.13117
Lausselet C, Urrego JPF, Resch E, Brattebø H (2021) Temporal analysis of the material flows and embodied greenhouse gas emissions of a neighborhood building stock. J Ind Ecol 25(2):419–434. https://doi.org/10.1111/jiec.13049
Lederer J, Gassner A, Keringer F, Mollay U, Schremmer C, Fellner J (2019) Material flows and stocks in the urban building sector: a case study from Vienna for the years 1990–2015. Sustainability 12(1):300. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12010300
Li Q, Gummidi SRB, Lanau M, Yu B, Liu G (2022) Spatiotemporally explicit mapping of built environment stocks reveals two centuries of urban development in a Fairytale City, Odense, Denmark. Environ Sci Technol 56(22):16369–16381. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.2c04781
Liang H, Bian X, Dong L, Shen W, Chen SS, Wang Q (2023) Mapping the evolution of building material stocks in three eastern coastal urban agglomerations of China. Resour Conserv Recycl 188:106651. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2022.106651
Liu G, Müller DB (2013) Centennial evolution of aluminum in-use stocks on our aluminized planet. Environ Sci Technol 47(9):4882–4888. https://doi.org/10.1021/es305108p
Liu G, Bangs CE, Müller DB (2013) Stock dynamics and emission pathways of the global aluminium cycle. Nat Clim Change 3(4):338–342. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1698
Liu Q, Cao Z, Liu X, Liu L, Dai T, Han J, Duan H, Wang C, Wang H, Liu J (2019) Product and metal stocks accumulation of China’s megacities: patterns, drivers, and implications. Environ Sci Technol 53(8):4128–4139. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.9b00387
Lu W, Tam VW (2013) Construction waste management policies and their effectiveness in Hong Kong: a longitudinal review. Renew Sustain Energy Rev 23:214–223. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2013.03.007
Lu W, Yuan H (2012) Off-site sorting of construction waste: what can we learn from Hong Kong? Resources, conservation and recycling. 69:100–108. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2012.09.007
Lui H-K (2012) Hong Kong’s Housing Policy: a Case Study in Social Justice. Hous Theory Soc 29(4):435–439. https://doi.org/10.1080/14036096.2011.635445
Marcellus-Zamora KA, Gallagher PM, Spatari S, Tanikawa H (2016) Estimating materials stocked by land‐use type in historic urban buildings using spatio‐temporal analytical tools. J Ind Ecol 20(5):1025–1037. https://doi.org/10.1111/jiec.12327
Miatto A, Schandl H, Forlin L, Ronzani F, Borin P, Giordano A, Tanikawa H (2019) A spatial analysis of material stock accumulation and demolition waste potential of buildings: a case study of Padua. Resour Conserv Recycl 142:245–256
Mohammadiziazi R, Bilec MM (2023) Quantifying and spatializing building material stock and renovation flow for circular economy. J Clean Prod 389:135765
Mollaei A, Ibrahim N, Habib K (2021) Estimating the construction material stocks in two Canadian cities: a case study of Kitchener and Waterloo. J Clean Prod 280:124501. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.124501
Müller DB, Wang T, Duval B, Graedel T (2006) Exploring the engine of anthropogenic iron cycles. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 103(44), 16111–16116. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0603375103
Müller DB, Wang T, Duval B (2011) Patterns of iron use in societal evolution. Environ Sci Technol 45(1):182–188. https://doi.org/10.1021/es102273t
Müller E, Hilty LM, Widmer R, Schluep M, Faulstich M (2014) Modeling metal stocks and flows: a review of dynamic material flow analysis methods. Environ Sci Technol 48(4):2102–2113. https://doi.org/10.1021/es403506a
Musango JK, Currie P, Robinson B (2017) Urban metabolism for resource efficient cities: from theory to implementation. UN Environment: Paris, France. https://t.hk.uy/buYA
Newcombe K, Kalma JD, Aston AR (1978) The metabolism of a city: the case of Hong Kong. Ambio 3–15. https://doi.org/https://www.jstor.org/stable/4312330
Parker G (2004) Sovereign city: the city-state through history. Univ Chic Press: Chic. https://doi.org/10.2747/0272-3638.28.4.398
Peled Y, Fishman T (2021) Estimation and mapping of the material stocks of buildings of Europe: a novel nighttime lights-based approach. Resour Conserv Recycl 169:105509. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2021.105509
Peng Z, Lu W, Webster CJ (2021) Quantifying the embodied carbon saving potential of recycling construction and demolition waste in the Greater Bay Area, China: Status quo and future scenarios. Sci Total Environ 792:148427. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.148427
Ren Z, Jiang M, Chen D, Yu Y, Li F, Xu M, Bringezu S, Zhu B (2022) Stocks and flows of sand, gravel, and crushed stone in China (1978–2018): evidence of the peaking and structural transformation of supply and demand. Resour Conserv Recycl 180:106173. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2022.106173
Schiller G, Müller F, Ortlepp R (2017) Mapping the anthropogenic stock in Germany: metabolic evidence for a circular economy. Resour Conserv Recycl 123:93–107. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2016.08.007
Soonsawad N, Martinez RM, Schandl H (2022) Material demand, and environmental and climate implications of Australia’s building stock: current status and outlook to 2060. Resour Conserv Recycl 180:106143
Sprecher B, Verhagen TJ, Sauer ML, Baars M, Heintz J, Fishman T (2021) Material intensity database for the Dutch building stock: towards Big Data in material stock analysis. J Ind Ecol 26(1):272–280. https://doi.org/10.1111/jiec.13143
Stephan A, Athanassiadis A (2017) Quantifying and mapping embodied environmental requirements of urban building stocks. Build Environ 114:187–202. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.buildenv.2016.11.043
Streeck J, Dammerer Q, Wiedenhofer D, Krausmann F (2021) The role of socio-economic material stocks for natural resource use in the United States of America from 1870 to 2100. J Ind Ecol 25(6):1486–1502. https://doi.org/10.1111/jiec.13166
Tanikawa H, Fishman T, Okuoka K, Sugimoto K (2015) The weight of society over time and space: a comprehensive account of the construction material stock of Japan, 1945–2010. J Ind Ecol 19(5):778–791
Tanikawa H, Fishman T, Hashimoto S, Daigo I, Oguchi M, Miatto A, Takagi S, Yamashita N, Schandl H (2021) A framework of indicators for associating material stocks and flows to service provisioning: application for Japan 1990–2015. J Clean Prod 285:125450. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.125450
Torres A, Simoni MU, Keiding JK, Müller DB, Ermgassen zu, Liu SO, Jaeger J, Winter JA, M., Lambin EF (2021) Sustainability of the global sand system in the Anthropocene. One Earth 4(5):639–650. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2021.04.011
URA (2023) Urban Renewal Authority (URA) Ordinance and Urban Renewal Strategy. Retrieved June 23, 2023 from https://www.ura.org.hk/en/about-ura/ura-ordinance-and-urban-renewal-strategy
Van Berkel R, Fujita T, Hashimoto S, Geng Y (2009) Industrial and urban symbiosis in Japan: analysis of the Eco-town program 1997–2006. J Environ Manage 90(3):1544–1556. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2008.11.010
Wang X, Zhang Y, Zhang J, Fu C, Zhang X (2021) Progress in urban metabolism research and hotspot analysis based on CiteSpace analysis. J Clean Prod 281:125224. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.125224
Xue CQ (2014) Contextualizing modernity: Hong Kong Architecture 1946–2011. Commercial, Hong Kong
Yan H, Shen Q, Fan LC, Wang Y, Zhang L (2010) Greenhouse gas emissions in building construction: a case study of one Peking in Hong Kong. Build Environ 45(4):949–955. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.buildenv.2009.09.014
Yang D, Guo J, Sun L, Shi F, Liu J, Tanikawa H (2020) Urban buildings material intensity in China from 1949 to 2015. Resources, conservation and recycling, 159, 104824. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2020.104824
Yuan L, Lu W, Xue F, Li M (2023) Building feature-based machine learning regression to quantify urban material stocks: a Hong Kong study. J Ind Ecol 00:1–14. https://doi.org/10.1111/jiec.13348
Z/Yen (2023) & CDI. The Global Financial Centres Index. Retrieved June 30, 2023 from https://en.cdi.org.cn/component/k2/itemlist/category/74-the-global-financial-centres-index
Zhang L, Yang J, Cai Z, Yuan Z (2015) Understanding the spatial and temporal patterns of copper in-use stocks in China. Environ Sci Technol 49(11):6430–6437. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.5b00917
Zhang T, Liu L, Lv X (2019) The change in the material stock of urban infrastructures in China. Struct Change Econ Dyn 51:24–34. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2019.06.014
Zhang R, Guo J, Yang D, Shirakawa H, Shi F, Tanikawa H (2022) What matters most to the material intensity coefficient of buildings? Random forest-based evidence from China. J Ind Ecol 26(5):1809–1823. https://doi.org/10.1111/jiec.13332
Zhong X, Deetman S, Tukker A, Behrens P (2022) Increasing material efficiencies of buildings to address the global sand crisis. Nat Sustain 5(5):389–392. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-022-00857-0
Acknowledgements
This research is supported by the Hong Kong Research Grants Council (RGC) Humanities and Social Sciences Prestigious Fellowship Scheme (HSSPFS) (Project No.: 37000622).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
Liang YUAN: Research proposal, data collection and analysis, manuscript drafting and review.Weisheng LU: Funding acquisition, data collection, manuscript review and polishing.
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Ethical approval
This study does not involve human participants and artefacts. The Human Research Ethics Committee of the University of Hong Kong has confirmed that no ethical approval is required.
Competing interest
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
Additional information
Publisher’s Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Electronic supplementary material
Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.
Rights and permissions
Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
About this article
Cite this article
Yuan, L., Lu, W. Centennial evolution of Hong Kong 1910–2050: a building material metabolism perspective. Energ. Ecol. Environ. (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40974-024-00322-y
Received:
Revised:
Accepted:
Published:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40974-024-00322-y