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Modelling the impact of hydrological parameter effect on streamflow due to futuristic climate change scenarios in the South Omo-Gibe River basin, Ethiopia

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Abstract

The impacts of climate change on the catchment hydrology, especially streamflow, were assessed as a function of rainfall and evapotranspiration in Ethiopia’s lower Omo-Gibe River basin. The region’s climate data is bias-corrected by comparing present and historical observed data and applied in the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to calibrate and validate the streamflow outputs from the basin. The bias-corrected forecast models for the region suggest an increase in percentage change in the future precipitation in the basin. However, the evapotranspiration rates decreased in the futuristic scenarios for the basin. The mean annual temperature in the mid-term year (the 2050 s) are projected to increase by 1.34, 1.58, and 1.47 oC for the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. In contrast, in the future long-term (the 2080 s), it is projected to decrease by 0.98, 1.03, and 1.35 oC for the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. The minimum error in geostatistical analysis substantiates the use of ordinary kriging and inverse distance weighted (IDW) interpolation methods. The Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) criteria, R2, and percent bias (PBIAS), for both simulated and measured streamflow for calibration and validation, were within the acceptable range. Climatic situations that influence evapotranspiration and precipitation processes, directly affect the basin’s surface runoff and soil moisture. The comparison of annual precipitation, evapotranspiration, and streamflow for the baseline period, mid-term, and long-term for the South Omo-Gibe indicated increasing trends. The analysis revealed the impact of climate change on future annual streamflow to be directly and indirectly correlated with an annual change in precipitation and evaporation.

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Acknowledgements

The authors thank the Ministry of Education, Ethiopia, Ministry of Water, Irrigation and Electricity, Ethiopia, National Meteorological Agency, Ethiopia, Ministry of Agriculture, Ethiopia, and Arbaminch University Water Technology Institute, Ethiopia, for providing financial support and necessary data for this study. The first author would like to acknowledge the Department of Civil Engineering, IIT Guwahati, for providing the opportunity and necessary facilities to do research.

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  1. Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Guwahati, Guwahati, Assam, 781039, India

    Shiferaw E. Chaemiso & Suresh A. Kartha

  2. Hydrological Investigations Division, National Institute of Hydrology, Roorkee, India

    Santosh Murlidhar Pingale

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  1. Shiferaw E. Chaemiso
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  2. Suresh A. Kartha
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SEC: conceptualization, methodology, investigation, software, formal analysis, validation, writing—original draft. SAK: supervision, writing- reviewing and editing, visualisation. SP: visualization, writing- reviewing and editing.

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Correspondence to Shiferaw E. Chaemiso.

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Chaemiso, S.E., Kartha, S.A. & Pingale, S.M. Modelling the impact of hydrological parameter effect on streamflow due to futuristic climate change scenarios in the South Omo-Gibe River basin, Ethiopia. Sustain. Water Resour. Manag. 9, 34 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40899-022-00812-z

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