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Poverty, emergence, boom and affluence: a new classification of economies

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Abstract

The paper offers a new country classification system defined in relative terms and jointly based on the level and the medium–long term rate of growth of per capita income. The classification system identifies four categories of economies: poor (low income–low growth), emerging (low income–high growth), booming (high income–high growth) and affluent (high income–low growth). After classifying 122 countries in periods 1985–1999 and 2000–2014, the paper focuses on the comparison of poor and emerging economies and, in parallel, of emerging and high-income economies, and characterizes their transitions across categories. In line with the empirical literature on economic growth, the results of multinomial logit analysis suggest that higher growth rates of export and investment are the main factors distinguishing emerging from poor economies. Further, a better institutional setting, measured by various dimensions of economic freedom, plays an important role in driving the transition of low income countries from low to high growth. Moreover, along with a better technological advancement, it also represents the crucial attribute differentiating high-income from emerging economies.

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Notes

  1. As Vaggi (2017, p. 64–65) notices “the original thresholds were meant to provide a comparative classification of countries and were supposedly considered as being relative thresholds […]. However, the annual adjustment of the thresholds is based only on “international inflation”, which leads to the fact that the thresholds are rather ‘sticky’; they become similar to absolute thresholds and provide a partial view of the changes in the global economic scenario.”

  2. In the World Economic Outlook, the IMF classifies the world into two groups—advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies—according to per capita income level, export diversification and the degree of integration into the global financial system.

  3. The average per capita income of country i (i = 1,…,n) over period T (T = 1,….,t) is calculated as \(\bar{y}_{i,T} = \frac{{\mathop \sum \nolimits_{T = 1}^{t} y_{i,T} }}{t}\), while the average annual rate of growth of country i’s per capita income is given by \(\bar{r}_{i.T} = \left( {\sqrt[{t - 1}]{{\frac{{y_{i,t} }}{{y_{i,1} }}}} - 1} \right) \times 100\).

  4. An alternative way of determining the two thresholds is to weight countries’ per capita income by their share of world population in the computation of \(\bar{y}_{T}\), that corresponds to calculate the individual world average income and its rate of growth. In this case, the benchmark would not be the average economy but rather the average individual at a world level. Even if it is a common approach adopted by many studies about global income inequality and poverty (Deaglio 1994, 2004; Milanovic 2013), it does not match our focus, that is to evaluate each country’s economic conditions against an average condition. Another alternative way would be to select as a benchmark the median economy. However, Nielsen (2011) formally demonstrates that using the mean outcome as the threshold value dividing countries into two categories is the most appropriate choice, since it minimizes the error associated to treating all countries belonging to the same category as alike. Moreover, it is interesting to note that both the median economy and the average individual methods, applied to periods 1985–1999 and 2000–2014, get thresholds of per capita income close to the cut-off level used by the World Bank in order to divide high-income countries from low and middle-income countries, that has been highly criticized for undervaluing the number of low income countries (to this purpose, see Vaggi 2017).

  5. The concept of emerging markets, introduced in 1981 by economists at the International Finance Corporation (WB Group), has been largely defined by global institutions as well as financial companies and is mainly based on countries’ financial structure.

  6. In both periods, the percentage of countries clustered around the averages (with a deviation lower than 10%) was below one-tenth and only one country had a ‘light’ membership in terms of both income and rate of growth (Malaysia in 2000–2014).

  7. Our calculations based on the Total Economy Database, Conference Board.

  8. Estonia, Korea, Malaysia, Slovak Republic, and Trinidad and Tobago.

  9. Unfortunately, we cannot consider booming and affluent economies—i.e. the two high income economies- as two different outcomes because the number of countries in these categories is limited. In particular, in period 1985–1999 our sample counts only ten economies classified as affluent, while for period 2000–2014 booming economies are just 9. We then merge the two categories and consider them as one single group.

  10. In order to identify the model, a reference outcome j must be arbitrarily selected and the respective coefficients \(\beta_{j}\) must be set equal to 0.

  11. The same hypothesis can be tested through a Wald test, that however turns out to be less reliable for small samples, as in our case (Agresti 2007).

  12. The two additional observations for period 2000–2014 correspond to Ethiopia and Tajikistan.

  13. For each of the independent variables, the LR test is performed as follows. First, the full model is estimated. Second, a reduced model that excludes the tested variable is estimated. The difference in the LR2 is then computed and used to test the hypothesis that the tested variable does not affect the outcome (Freese and Long 2000).

  14. When the beginning-of-period value is not available, we use the first non-missing value over the first 5 years of the fifteen-year period.

  15. More easily, it may also be a reflection of the sample composition by category.

  16. When a proxy for technological advancement is added to the full model by ignoring the rule of ten observations per regressor (necessary to guarantee the empirical validity in multinomial logit models), predictably some coefficients lose their significance (even if the most part of them maintains the same sign and size) and this is very likely due to the violation of the rule and the subsequent lack of validity, while the coefficient of technological advancement is never significant in the two periods.

  17. We also use a dummy variable indicating whether the country is landlocked, but the coefficient is not significant.

  18. The WVS also provides a series of detailed data on religion and religiousness that, although more refined than the variables here used, can not be exploited in our analysis because of the significant drop in the number of observations.

  19. Guiso et al. (2003) showed that religious denominations are strictly related to trust, whose level increases if a person is Catholic or Protestant.

  20. If we look at the mean level of the variables, in both periods they were characterized by a higher fertility rate, a lower educational attainment of people aged 20–24, a higher Gini index and a lower share of urban population.

  21. The fourth Asian Tiger, South Korea, was a booming economy in the second period but in the first period it was classified as emerging.

  22. This is of course an average relation, that does not capture single cases of huge inequalities like experienced by China and India during their process of emergence.

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Acknowledgements

We thank the members of the Turin Centre on Emerging Economies (OEET) and, in particular, Professor Vittorio Valli for their stimulating discussions and suggestions.

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Correspondence to Donatella Saccone.

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Appendices

Appendix I: List of indicators and sources

Age dependency ratio, World Development Indicators, World Bank.

Agricultural raw materials exports (% of merchandise exports), World Development Indicators, World Bank.

Conflicts, Polity IV Project, Center for Systemic Peace.

Educational attainment (15 + and 2024), Barro-Lee Educational Attainment Data, Barro and Lee (2013).

Export and import growth rates, our calculations on World Development Indicators, World Bank.

Exports and imports as a percentage of GDP, World Development Indicators, World Bank.

FDI as a percentage of GDP, World Development Indicators, World Bank.

FDI growth rates, our calculations on World Development Indicators, World Bank.

Fertility rate, World Development Indicators, World Bank.

Fiscal balance, World Development Indicators, World Bank.

Geographical variables, GeoDist, CEPII.

Gini index, Global Income Dataset, Global Consumption and Income Project (GCIP).

Illiteracy rate, Barro-Lee Educational Attainment Data, Barro and Lee (2013).

Income share of top 1 %, Global Income Dataset, Global Consumption and Income Project (GCIP).

Index of economic freedom, Economic Freedom of the World, Fraser Institute.

Inflation, World Development Indicators, World Bank.

Investment as a percentage of GDP, World Development Indicators, World Bank.

Investment growth rates, our calculations on World Development Indicators, World Bank.

Percentage of urban population, World Development Indicators, World Bank.

Political regime, Polity IV Project, Center for Systemic Peace.

Real GDP per capita with EKS PPP, Total Economy Database, Conference Board.

Religious diversity index and dominant religions, Pew Research Center.

Researchers in R&D (per million people), World Development Indicators, World Bank.

R&D expenditure (% GDP), World Development Indicators, World Bank.

Appendix II: Country membership by period and transition matrix

2.1 Country membership by period

Country

1985–1999

Level of membership stability

2000–2014

Level of membership stability

Albania

Emerging

Nearly stable

Emerging

Nearly stable

Algeria

Poor

Stable

Poor

Nearly stable

Angola

Poor

Unstable

Emerging

Stable

Argentina

Emerging

Unstable

Poor

Stable

Armenia

Poor

Nearly stable

Emerging

Stable

Australia

Booming

Stable

Affluent

Stable

Austria

Booming

Stable

Affluent

Stable

Azerbaijan

Poor

Nearly stable

Emerging

Nearly stable

Bahrain

Affluent

Nearly stable

Affluent

Stable

Bangladesh

Emerging

Nearly stable

Emerging

Stable

Barbados

Emerging

Nearly stable

Poor

Stable

Belarus

Poor

Unstable

Emerging

Stable

Belgium

Booming

Stable

Affluent

Stable

Bolivia

Emerging

Unstable

Poor

Unstable

Bosnia and Herzegovina

n.a.

Unstable

Poor

Unstable

Brazil

Poor

Nearly stable

Poor

Stable

Bulgaria

Poor

Stable

Emerging

Nearly stable

Burkina Faso

Emerging

Stable

Poor

Nearly stable

Cambodia

Emerging

Nearly stable

Emerging

Stable

Cameroon

Poor

Stable

Poor

Nearly stable

Canada

Booming

Stable

Affluent

Stable

Chile

Emerging

Stable

Emerging

Nearly stable

China

Emerging

Stable

Emerging

Stable

Colombia

Emerging

Nearly stable

Emerging

Nearly stable

Congo, Dem. Rep.

Poor

Stable

Poor

Nearly stable

Costa Rica

Emerging

Stable

Emerging

Unstable

Cote d’Ivoire

Poor

Nearly stable

Poor

Nearly stable

Croatia

Affluent

Unstable

Poor

Nearly stable

Cyprus

Booming

Nearly stable

Affluent

Stable

Czech Republic

Booming

Unstable

Affluent

Nearly stable

Denmark

Booming

Unstable

Affluent

Stable

Dominican Republic

Emerging

Stable

Emerging

Nearly stable

Ecuador

Poor

Nearly stable

Emerging

Nearly stable

Egypt, Arab Rep.

Emerging

Nearly stable

Poor

Nearly stable

Estonia

Emerging

Unstable

Booming

Nearly stable

Ethiopia

Poor

Nearly stable

Emerging

Nearly stable

Finland

Booming

Nearly stable

Affluent

Stable

France

Booming

Nearly stable

Affluent

Stable

Georgia

Poor

Nearly stable

Emerging

Stable

Germany

Booming

Nearly stable

Affluent

Stable

Ghana

Emerging

Stable

Emerging

Nearly stable

Greece

Booming

Stable

Affluent

Nearly stable

Guatemala

Emerging

Nearly stable

Poor

Stable

Hong Kong SAR, China

Booming

Nearly stable

Booming

Nearly stable

Hungary

Affluent

Unstable

Affluent

Nearly stable

Iceland

Booming

Stable

Affluent

Stable

India

Emerging

Stable

Emerging

Stable

Indonesia

Emerging

Nearly stable

Emerging

Nearly stable

Iran, Islamic Rep.

Poor

Unstable

Poor

Unstable

Iraq

Poor

Unstable

Emerging

Nearly stable

Ireland

Booming

Stable

Affluent

Nearly stable

Israel

Booming

Nearly stable

Affluent

Stable

Italy

Booming

Nearly stable

Affluent

Stable

Jamaica

Emerging

Nearly stable

Poor

Stable

Japan

Booming

Nearly stable

Affluent

Stable

Jordan

Poor

Nearly stable

Poor

Unstable

Kazakhstan

Poor

Nearly stable

Emerging

Stable

Kenya

Poor

Nearly stable

Poor

Nearly stable

Korea, Rep.

Emerging

Nearly stable

Booming

Stable

Kuwait

Affluent

Unstable

Affluent

Unstable

Kyrgyz Republic

Poor

Nearly stable

Emerging

Stable

Latvia

Poor

Unstable

Emerging

Nearly stable

Lithuania

Poor

Unstable

Emerging

Unstable

Luxembourg

Booming

Stable

Affluent

Stable

Macedonia, FYR

Poor

Stable

Poor

Nearly stable

Madagascar

Poor

Stable

Poor

Stable

Malawi

Poor

Unstable

Poor

Nearly stable

Malaysia

Emerging

Nearly stable

Booming

Unstable

Mali

Emerging

Nearly stable

Poor

Nearly stable

Malta

Booming

Nearly stable

Affluent

Nearly stable

Mexico

Emerging

Unstable

Poor

Stable

Moldova

Poor

Nearly stable

Emerging

Stable

Morocco

Emerging

Stable

Emerging

Stable

Mozambique

Emerging

Stable

Emerging

Stable

Myanmar

Emerging

Nearly stable

Emerging

Stable

Netherlands

Booming

Stable

Affluent

Stable

New Zealand

Booming

Unstable

Affluent

Stable

Niger

Poor

Stable

Poor

Nearly stable

Nigeria

Emerging

Stable

Emerging

Stable

Norway

Booming

Nearly stable

Affluent

Stable

Oman

Booming

Unstable

Affluent

Unstable

Pakistan

Emerging

Nearly stable

Poor

Nearly stable

Peru

Poor

Nearly stable

Emerging

Nearly stable

Philippines

Emerging

Unstable

Emerging

Unstable

Poland

Emerging

Nearly stable

Emerging

Unstable

Portugal

Booming

Stable

Affluent

Stable

Qatar

Affluent

Unstable

Affluent

Nearly stable

Romania

Poor

Stable

Emerging

Stable

Russian Federation

Affluent

Nearly stable

Booming

Nearly stable

Saudi Arabia

Affluent

Nearly stable

Affluent

Nearly stable

Senegal

Poor

Nearly stable

Poor

Stable

Serbia and Montenegro

Poor

Stable

Emerging

Nearly stable

Singapore

Booming

Nearly stable

Booming

Unstable

Slovak Republic

Emerging

Nearly stable

Booming

Unstable

Slovenia

Affluent

Nearly stable

Affluent

Nearly stable

South Africa

Poor

Stable

Poor

Stable

Spain

Booming

Stable

Affluent

Stable

Sri Lanka

Emerging

Stable

Emerging

Nearly stable

St. Lucia

Emerging

Stable

Poor

Stable

Sudan

Emerging

Unstable

Poor

Unstable

Sweden

Booming

Stable

Affluent

Stable

Switzerland

Booming

Nearly stable

Affluent

Stable

Taiwan, China

Booming

Nearly stable

Booming

Unstable

Tajikistan

Poor

Stable

Emerging

Stable

Tanzania

Poor

Stable

Emerging

Stable

Thailand

Emerging

Nearly stable

Emerging

Nearly stable

Trinidad and Tobago

Emerging

Nearly stable

Booming

Nearly stable

Tunisia

Emerging

Nearly stable

Poor

Unstable

Turkey

Emerging

Nearly stable

Poor

Unstable

Turkmenistan

Poor

Nearly stable

Emerging

Stable

Uganda

Emerging

Nearly stable

Emerging

Nearly stable

Ukraine

Poor

Nearly stable

Emerging

Unstable

United Arab Emirates

Affluent

Stable

Affluent

Stable

United Kingdom

Booming

Stable

Affluent

Stable

United States

Booming

Stable

Affluent

Stable

Uruguay

Emerging

Nearly stable

Emerging

Nearly stable

Uzbekistan

Poor

Stable

Emerging

Stable

Venezuela, RB

Affluent

Unstable

Poor

Nearly stable

Vietnam

Emerging

Stable

Emerging

Stable

Yemen, Rep.

Emerging

Unstable

Poor

Stable

Zambia

Poor

Stable

Emerging

Stable

Zimbabwe

Poor

Nearly stable

Poor

Nearly stable

2.2 Transition matrix

 

2000–2014

Poverty

Emergence

Boom

Affluence

Total

1985–1999

 Poverty

15

23

0

0

38

 Probability

39.5

60.5

0.0

0.0

100

 Emergence

16

22

5

0

43

 Probability

37.2

51.2

11.6

0.0

100

 Boom

0

0

3

28

31

 Probability

0.0

0.0

9.7

90.3

100

 Affluence

2

0

1

7

10

 Probability

20.0

0.0

10.0

70.0

100

Total

33

45

9

35

122

Appendix III: Classification of economies by region

 

1985–1999

2000–2014

n

%

n

%

Poor economies

East Asia and Pacific

0

0.0

0

0.0

Europe and Central Asia

17

44.7

4

12.1

LAC

3

7.9

9

27.3

MENA

4

10.5

6

18.2

North America

0

0.0

0

0.0

South Asia

0

0.0

1

3.0

Sub Saharan Africa

14

36.8

13

39.4

Total

38

100.0

33

100.0

Emerging economies

East Asia and Pacific

9

20.9

7

15.6

Europe and Central Asia

6

14.0

18

40.0

LAC

13

30.2

7

15.6

MENA

4

9.3

2

4.4

North America

0

0.0

0

0.0

South Asia

4

9.3

3

6.7

Sub Saharan Africa

7

16.3

8

17.8

Total

43

100.0

45

100.0

Booming economies

East Asia and Pacific

6

19.4

5

55.6

Europe and Central Asia

20

64.5

3

33.3

LAC

0

0.0

1

11.1

MENA

3

9.7

0

0.0

North America

2

6.5

0

0.0

South Asia

0

0.0

0

0.0

Sub Saharan Africa

0

0.0

0

0.0

Total

31

100.0

9

100.0

Affluent economies

East Asia and Pacific

0

0.0

3

8.6

Europe and Central Asia

4

40.0

22

62.9

LAC

1

10.0

0

0.0

MENA

5

50.0

8

22.9

North America

0

0.0

2

5.7

South Asia

0

0.0

0

0.0

Sub Saharan Africa

0

0.0

0

0.0

Total

10

100.0

35

100.0

  1. Source: our calculations based on the Total Economy Database, Conference Board

Appendix IV: Likelihood-ratio tests on independent variables

4.1 Period 1985–1999

 

Chi2

P > Chi2

Age dependency ratio

4.494

0.106

Export growth

4.930

0.085

Investment growth

3.247

0.197

Urban population  %

9.409

0.009

Inflation

0.731

0.694

Gini

1.383

0.501

Illiteracy rate

0.405

0.817

Economic freedom index

6.236

0.044

4.2 Period 2000–2014

 

Chi2

P > Chi2

Age dependency ratio

23.004

0.000

Export growth

19.980

0.000

Investment growth

15.823

0.000

Urban population  %

14.483

0.001

Inflation

3.440

0.179

Gini

16.429

0.000

Illiteracy rate

4.496

0.106

Economic freedom index

9.146

0.010

Appendix V: Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Bayesian information criterion (BIC) values

5.1 Period 1985–1999

 

Full model

(column 3)

Reduced model

(column 4)

AIC

1.536

1.528

BIC

− 210.528

− 235.834

BIC′

− 16.520

− 41.826

5.2 Period 2000–2014

 

Full model (column 3)

Reduced model (column 4)

AIC

0.959

0.968

BIC

− 260.724

− 269.786

BIC′

− 69.014

− 78.076

Appendix VI: Sensitivity analysis

6.1 Period 1985–1999

 

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

(7)

(8)

(9)

Poor economies

Demography

 

1.0289***

 

0.0325*

     

Economic openness

− 0.1386*

− 0.1632*

− 0.2267**

− 0.1757**

− 0.1585*

− 0.3222**

− 0.1411*

− 0.0129

− 0.1169

Physical capital accum.

         

Structural change

0.0048

0.0311

0.0103

− 0.0762

0.0211

0.0168

0.0032

0.0427

0.0151

Macroeconomic policy

     

− 0.0603

   

Inequality

    

0.1052*

    

Human capital

 

− 0.0395

       

Institutional quality

− 0.2854

 

− 0.3851

− 0.1556

− 0.2898

− 0.6086

− 0.2670

− 0.3416

0.0613

Latitude

      

0.1893

  

Technological advancement

       

0.2021

0.0001

Booming and affluent economies

 Demography

 

− 2.6895***

 

− 0.1264***

     

Economic openness

0.0178

0.0671

− 0.1024

− 0.0364

0.0370

− 0.0282

− 0.0003

0.0164

− 0.0467

Physical capital accumulation

         

Structural change

0.0898***

0.1011***

0.0885***

− 0.1745*

0.0844***

0.0905***

0.0695***

0.0623*

0.0438

Macroeconomic policy

     

− 0.3817*

   

Inequality

    

− 0.2419*

    

Human capital

 

0.0788

       

Institutional quality

1.1050***

 

1.0320***

1.4613***

1.2061***

1.5032**

1.1004**

0.7732

1.1085**

Latitude

      

5.4802*

  

Technological advancement

       

2.1338**

0.0013***

Obs.

87

87

87

87

87

70

87

60

55

  1. The table reports the results of the reduced forms obtained by using alternative proxies for the regressors. Column 1 replicates the original reduced form (as in Table 1) in order to facilitate comparisons; in column 2 the age dependency ratio is substituted by the fertility rate; in column 3 economic openness is measured by the rate of import growth; in column 4 the structural change is proxied by the share of agricultural raw materials exports as a percentage of merchandise exports; in column 5 the Gini coefficient is replaced by the share of income held by the top 1 %; in column 6 the fiscal balance (% of GDP) is a proxy for macroeconomic policy; in column 7 a variable measuring the distance from the equator is added to the reduced form; in columns 8 and 9 technological advancement is added to the reduced form and is measured respectively by the R&D expenditure (% GDP) and the number of researchers (per million people)
  2. Results are not reported for the regressions where the alternative proxies did not pass the likelihood-ratio test at a 90 % confidence level. This is the case of exports/GDP, imports/GDP, FDI/GDP and FDI growth for economic openness; investment as a percentage of GDP for physical capital accumulation; average years of schooling (people aged 15 + and 20–24) for education; access to sound money (sub-component of economic freedom), regulation of credit, labor and business (sub-component of economic freedom), conflicts (dummy = 1 if presence of conflicts), and political regime (dummy = 1 if democratic regime) for institutional quality. Constants are not reported in order to save space. ***p < 0.01, **p < 0.02, *p < 0.05

6.2 Period 2000–2014

 

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

(7)

(8)

Poor economies

Demography

0.1498***

2.0025***

0.1239***

0.1422***

0.1974**

0.1917*

0.2236**

0.2395**

Economic openness

− 0.2517

− 0.2441

− 0.0377

− 0.0050

− 0.4175*

− 0.3281

− 0.0108

− 0.3579°

Physical capital accumulation

− 0.4806***

− 0.6974***

− 0.4807***

− 0.4517***

− 0.7892***

− 0.5035**

− 1.2080***

− 0.4311**

Structural change

0.0593*

0.0721**

0.0535*

0.0475*

0.1004**

0.0627*

0.0991*

0.1111*

Inequality

0.0960

0.0993

0.1199

 

− 0.0366

0.0139

13.6398

9.6998

Human capital

    

0.1141

   

Institutional quality

− 1.3047°

− 1.4680*

− 1.2194

− 1.0345°

− 0.7775

− 1.4534°

− 1.7985°

− 1.3649*

Latitude

     

6.0869

  

Technological advancement

      

1.8248

0.0021

Booming and affluent economies

Demography

− 0.3157*

− 1.3439

− 0.2509*

− 0.2399

− 1.1965*

− 0.5526*

− 0.3397

4.8682

Economic openness

− 1.1959**

− 0.8520***

− 0.4778***

0.1534*

− 3.1321*

− 1.3200*

− 1.6038**

− 22.5280

Physical capital accumulation

0.1046

− 0.0531

− 0.0824

0.6036**

− 0.3900

0.2104

− 0.2632

− 6.2078

Structural change

0.0699*

0.0597*

0.0656*

0.1109**

0.1917*

0.1478*

0.0471

2.7244

Inequality

− 0.2908*

− 0.2346*

− 0.1216

 

− 0.0292*

− 0.0486*

− 33.6174°

− 426.6601

Human capital

    

1.1999**

   

Institutional quality

3.2408**

2.2720**

2.3375**

2.4083**

8.1259*

3.3499*

4.1343**

38.3601

Latitude

     

− 12.5449

  

Technological advancement

      

2.8668

0.0847

Obs.

87

87

87

87

87

87

79

79

  1. The table reports the results of the reduced forms obtained by using alternative proxies for the regressors. Column 1 replicates the original reduced form (as in Table 3) in order to facilitate comparisons; in column 2 the age dependency ratio is substituted with the fertility rate; in column 3 and 4 economic openness is measured by the rate of import growth and the exports-to-GDP ratio respectively; in column 5 the Gini coefficient is replaced with the share of income held by the top 1 %; in column 6 a variable measuring the distance from the equator is added to the reduced form; in columns 7 and 8 technological advancement is added to the reduced form and is measured respectively by the R&D expenditure (% GDP) and the number of researchers (per million people)
  2. Results are generally not reported for the regressions where the alternative proxies did not pass the likelihood-ratio test at a 90 % confidence level. This is the case of imports/GDP, FDI/GDP and FDI growth for economic openness; investment as a percentage of GDP for physical capital accumulation; share of agricultural raw materials exports as a percentage of merchandise exports for structural change; average years of schooling (people aged 15 + and 20–24) for education; sub-components of economic freedom, conflicts (dummy = 1 if presence of conflicts) and political regime (dummy = 1 if democratic regime) for institutional quality. Constants are not reported in order to save space. ***p < 0.01, **p < 0.02, *p < 0.05, °p < 0.10

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Saccone, D., Deaglio, M. Poverty, emergence, boom and affluence: a new classification of economies. Econ Polit 37, 267–306 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40888-019-00166-4

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