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Non-integer Time Fractional-Order Mathematical Model of the COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts on the Societal and Economic Aspects of Nigeria

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Abstract

The economic and social consequences of the COVID-19 outbreak in Nigeria are examined in this study, utilizing a novel fractional-order model with Laplace Adomian Decomposition (LADM). Using this novel methodology, the study provides insights into the efficacy of control methods in restricting virus spread, the research sheds light on the effectiveness of control measures in containing the virus's spread, addressing a significant gap in the literature concerning the impact of COVID-19 in African nations. Given Nigeria's status as one of the continent's most populous countries, it encounters distinct challenges in pandemic management, making this study particularly pertinent for regional policymakers and public health authorities. Key findings include optimal results at a fractional-order parameter value of one as well as the numerical solution's rapid convergence. The basic reproduction number (\(R_{0} < 0\)) is calculated using the next-generation matrix approach and conducts sensitivity analysis and comparative assessments with traditional methods, emphasizing the importance of selecting appropriate modeling approaches. Overall, the findings have important implications for policymakers managing the pandemic and underscore the need for interdisciplinary collaboration in public health research.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Basic and Applied Sciences, Osun State University, Osogbo, 210001, Osun State, Nigeria

    Morufu O. Olayiwola & Akeem O. Yunus

  2. Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Osun State College of Technology, Esa-Oke, Osun State, Nigeria

    Akeem O. Yunus

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  1. Morufu O. Olayiwola
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Contributions

M.O.O.: Conceptualization, Investigation, Project administration, Supervision, Visualization, Writing - review & editing. A.O.Y.: Formal analysis, Writing - original draft, Methodology, Investigation, Project administration, Supervision, Visualization, Writing - original draft, Writing - review & editing.

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Correspondence to Akeem O. Yunus.

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Olayiwola, M.O., Yunus, A.O. Non-integer Time Fractional-Order Mathematical Model of the COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts on the Societal and Economic Aspects of Nigeria. Int. J. Appl. Comput. Math 10, 90 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40819-024-01726-4

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