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Predicting impact of climate change on geographical distribution of major NTFP species in the Central India Region

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Abstract

This study used MaxEnt model to determine the potential distribution of M. longifolia, B. lanzan, E. officinalis, T. bellirica, T. chebula and S. urens under current climatic conditions and subsequently map the their potential future distribution under four representative concentration pathways for 2050 and 2080 in the Madhya Pradesh, India. The results showed that rainfall of wettest (Bio_16) and driest (Bio_17) quarters together contributes nearly 60% to the total variations under all RCP scenarios. The results indicated that under current climatic conditions south eastern region of Madhya Pradesh has higher potential of all the studied species. M. longifolia will be able to withstand the future climate change, while B. lanzan and T. chebula will be impacted negatively. T. bellirica and E. officinalis are expected to expand to new areas under RCP 4.5 in near-term future. S. urens is expected to gain area under RCP 2.6 and 4.5 for 2080. All species are expected to show shift in range towards wetter forest type in north eastern region of the state. Our results will be useful for identifying potential growth regulating factors and suitable areas to support scientific management of these economically important NTFP species. These results can also be useful in gauging the behaviour of other associate species in the area with similar bioclimatic requirements.

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Acknowledgments

Authors are grateful to M.P forest department for permitting the work and providing the timely field support during field visits, whenever required. Sincere thanks go to the Dean, University school of environment management, GGSIP University, Delhi, for providing institutional support. Permission provided by Director, WWF India, Delhi, for work in IGCMC lab is greatly acknowledged. Thanks are due to University Grants Commission, New Delhi, for providing financial support to Seema Yadav in the form of junior research fellowship. We would also like to thank Mr. Ravi Singh, CEO, WWF India and Dr. Sejal Wohra, Programme Director, WWF-India for allowing me to carry out our project in the esteemed organization. We would also like to extend our gratitude to the library staff of WWF India for helping us with the resources for the literature review.

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The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Guru Gobind Singh Indraprastha University, New Delhi, India

    Seema Yadav & Prodyut Bhattacharya

  2. IGCMC, WWF-India, New Delhi, India

    G. Areendran, Mehebub Sahana & Krishna Raj

  3. Department of Geography, Jamia Millia Islamia (A Central University), New Delhi, India

    Haroon Sajjad

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  1. Seema Yadav
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Correspondence to Mehebub Sahana.

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Yadav, S., Bhattacharya, P., Areendran, G. et al. Predicting impact of climate change on geographical distribution of major NTFP species in the Central India Region. Model. Earth Syst. Environ. 8, 449–468 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-020-01074-4

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