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Modeling of peak discharges and frequency analysis of floods on the Jhelum river, North Western Himalayas

Abstract

The modeling of peak flood discharges and flood frequency analysis at various sites on a river is essential for planning, design, and management of hydraulic structures. The first and the foremost aim of this study is to choose the best-fit flood model among Log Pearson type 3 (LP3), Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), and Gumble (EV1) for each of the eight sites on the Jhelum River and for the same purpose goodness-of-fit tests like Anderson–Darling (A–D) and Kolmogorov–Smirnow (K–S) and distribution graphs (P–P plot and Probability difference graph) were used. The parameters of these models were determined by L-moments. The outcomes of the study reveal that the LP3 model is best-fit for Khanabal, Sangam, Awantipora, Padshahi Bagh, Ram Munshi Bagh, and Asham, and GEV is the best fit for Sopore, and Baramullah sites. Furthermore, peak discharges for 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, 200-, and 500-year return periods were estimated and the analysis depicts that the discharge rate determined by distribution models at a return period of 5 years or more would surpass the safe carrying capacity (990.85 cumecs) of the Jhelum river. The study further shows that there exists a high positive correlation (R2 = 0.99) between observed and predicted peak discharges of LP3 and GEV models. Thus, indicating LP3 and GEV as best-fit models for modeling and flood frequency analysis of annual peak discharges on the Jhelum River.

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Data availability

The data used for this research are available from the Planning Division of the Irrigation and Flood Control Department Jammu and Kashmir, India. Data are available from the authors with the permission of the said department.

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Acknowledgements

Acknowledgements are due to the Ministry of Human Resources Development (MHRD), Government of India for providing Doctoral Fellowship, the planning division of the Irrigation and Flood Control Department Jammu and Kashmir, India for providing the discharge data of the Jhelum river and to NIT Srinagar for providing work space for computational analysis.

Funding

The research is funded by MHRD, Government of India.

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Correspondence to Sheikh Umar.

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Umar, S., Lone, M.A. & Goel, N.K. Modeling of peak discharges and frequency analysis of floods on the Jhelum river, North Western Himalayas. Model. Earth Syst. Environ. 7, 1991–2003 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-020-00957-w

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Keywords

  • River Jhelum
  • Flood frequency analysis
  • l-moments
  • Probability distributions
  • Goodness of fit
  • Return periods