Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

The impacts of climate change based on regional and global climate models (RCMs and GCMs) projections (case study: Ilam province)

  • Original Article
  • Published:
Modeling Earth Systems and Environment Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The climate change is one of the most important challenges facing the environment. In this study, climate change by air temperature and precipitation parameters is evaluated and compared for observational and future data. For the baseline period (1981–2016) and for future (2020–2080) detemined. To estimate future data, utilized the CNRM-CM5 and HadGEM2-ES models output the global climate models (GCMs) from the MarksimGCM database and the CNRM-CERFACS and MIROC-ESM models as regional climate models (RCMs) from the CORDEX project for the domain of south Asia is based on the representation concentration pathway RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios were considered. The results showed that is an increasing and decreasing trend for air temperature and precipitation in the baseline period, respectively. The validation of the models showed that the CNRM-CM5 model as a GCM model and the CNRM-CERFACS model as an RCM model have a higher performance in simulating climate change for study area. In fact, output of these models have close relation to the observed data. Evaluation of the temperature components (minimum and maximum temperatures) showed these components had an increasing trend in the baseline period and would have an upward deviation in the future. With respect to the changes in air temperature, precipitation and reference evapotranspiration (Eto) for the future, the status of water resources in the study area will decline significantly. Therefore, the effects of climate change are significant for the study area, which need to consider adaptive strategies such as; optimal water management, cropping pattern and resource management.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11
Fig. 12
Fig. 13

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Ahmadi H, Ghalhari GF, Baaghideh M (2019) Impacts of climate change on apple tree cultuvation areas in Iran. Clim Change 153(1–2):91–103

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ansari S Massah Bavani, Roozbahani A (2016) Effects of climate change on groundwater recharge (case study: Sefid Dasht plain). J Water Soil 30(2):416–431

    Google Scholar 

  • Bates B, Kundzewicz Z, Wu S (2008) IPCC Technical paper on climate change and water. Ntergovernmental panel on climate change secretariat. Climate change and water. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • Chen H, Xu CY, Guo S (2012) Comparison and evaluation of multiple GCMs, statistical downscaling and hydrological models in the study of climate change impacts on runoff. J Hydrol 434:36–45

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Christensen NS, Wood AW, Voisin N, Lettnmarier DP, Palmer RN (2004) The effects of climate change on hydrology and water resources of the colorado river basin. Clim Change 62:337–363

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Djaman K, Balde AB, Sow A, Muller B, Irmak S, Diaye MKN, Manneh B, Moukoumbi YD, Futakuchi K, Saito K (2015) Evaluation of sixteen reference evapotranspiration methods under sahelian conditions in the Senegal River Valley. J Hydrol Reg Stud 3(2015):139–159

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fronzek S, Carter TR (2007) Assessing uncertainties in climate change impacts on resource potential for Europe based on projections from RCMs and GCMs. Clim Change 81(1):357–371

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gebrechorkos SH, Bernhofer C, Hülsmann S (2019) Impacts of projected change in climate on water balance in basins of East Africa. Sci Total Environ 682:160–170

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Giorgi F, Jones C, Asrar GR (2006) Addressing climate information needs at the regional level: the CORDEX framework. Bull World Meteorol Organ 58(3):175–183

    Google Scholar 

  • Jones PG, Thornton PK (2013) Generating downscaled weather data from a suite of climate models for agricultural modelling applications. Agric Syst 114:1–5

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jones C, Giorgi F, Asrar G (2011) The coordinated regional downscaling experiment: CORDEX An international downscaling link to CMIP. CLIVAR Exchanges 16(2):34–40

    Google Scholar 

  • Joseph J, Ghosh S, Pathak A, Sahai AK (2018) Hydrologic impacts of climate change: comparisons between hydrological parameter uncertainty and climate model uncertainty. J Hydrol 566:1–22

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Karimi H, Naderi F, Mehdizadeh Z (2011) Preparation of irrigation capability map of Mehran plain water in GIS environment. J Irrig Water Eng 2(6):1–9

    Google Scholar 

  • McCarthy JJ, Canziani OF, Leary NA, Dokken DJ, White KS (Eds) (2001) Climate change 2001: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability: contribution of Working group II to the third assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, vol 2. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • Nouri M, Homaee M, Bannayan M, Hoogenboom G (2017) Towards shifting planting date as an adaptation practice for rainfed wheat response to climate change. Agric Water Manag 186:108–119

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Raziei T, Pereira L (2013) Estimation of Eto with Hargreaves—Samani and FAO-PM temperature methods for a wide range of climates in Iran. Agric Water Manag 121:1–18

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shresths S, Bajjracharya AR, Babel MS (2016) Assessment of risks due to climate change for the Upper Tamakoshi Hydropower Project in Nepal. Clim Risk Manag 14:27–41

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Singh V, Goyal MK (2016) Analysis and trends of precipitation lapse rate and extreme indices over north Sikkim eastern Himalayas under CMIP5ESM-2 M RCPs experiments. Atmos Res 1(167):34–60

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Singh V, Jain SK, Singh PK (2019) Inter-comparisons and applicability of CMIP5 GCMs, RCMs and statistically downscaled NEX-GDDP based precipitation in India. Sci Total Environ 697:1–18

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tabari H, Somee BS, Zadeh MR (2011) Testing for long-term trends in climatic variables in Iran. Atmos Res 100:132–140

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tapiador FJ, Moreno R, Navarro A, Sánchez JL, García-Ortega E (2019) Climate classifications from regional and global climate models: Performances for present climate estimates and expected changes in the future at high spatial resolution. Atmos Res 228:107–121

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xue Y, Janjic Z, Dudhia J, Vasic R De, Sales F (2014) A review on regional dynamical downscaling in intraseasonal to seasonal simulation/prediction and major factors that affect downscaling ability. Atmosph Res 1(147):68–85

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

Authors would like to thank the Islamic Republic of Iran Meteorological Organization (IRIMO) and the Regional Water Company of Ilam (RWCI) for providing the necessary data.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Climatology, Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Hakim Sabzevari University, Sabzevar, Iran

    Hamzeh Ahmadi & Javad Azizzadeh

Authors
  1. Hamzeh Ahmadi
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Javad Azizzadeh
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Hamzeh Ahmadi.

Additional information

Publisher's Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Ahmadi, H., Azizzadeh, J. The impacts of climate change based on regional and global climate models (RCMs and GCMs) projections (case study: Ilam province). Model. Earth Syst. Environ. 6, 685–696 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-020-00721-0

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-020-00721-0

Keywords

Search

Navigation