Abstract
Using administrative data on the entire Italian population of students at their first enrolment in the tertiary system during the academic years 2008–2014, we investigate the major choice process and the subsequent behaviour after the first academic year, namely university persistence, switching major or dropout, of students enrolled in two majors perceived as similar, that are Economics and Business. We investigate the two sequential stages separately for the universes of Economics and Business students. Our main findings suggest that on average, well-prepared students are more likely to switch major than dropout. Moreover, a better student intake at degree level entails a progressive reduction in dropout rates. Likewise, a peer group more homogeneous in terms of academic grades has a higher propensity to stay in the initial major, whereas a student cohort characterised by high competitiveness, proxied by the number of credits achieved, is less persistent, especially once enrolled in Economics.
Similar content being viewed by others
Notes
We refer to dropouts as students who leave the university system without earning a degree. All in all, they denote a non-smooth university path which decreases the share of graduates available to the economic system.
Figures available online at https://www.collegeatlas.org/college-dropout.html.
Certainly, investigating the academic progression of students at large, looking at both dropout and stopout behaviours enrolled in all fields of study is also an interesting topic. Nevertheless, in this empirical exercise we focus only on Economics and Business degree courses to fulfil the gap in the existing literature about this issue, leaving for a future study this more comprehensive analysis.
See Sect. 5 and footnote 8, where we explain our robustness check for a possible negative view.
The CFU system is equivalent to the European Credit Transfer and accumulation System (ECTS).
Database MOBYSU.IT [Mobilità degli Studi Universitari in Italia], research protocol MUR—Universities of Cagliari, Palermo, Siena, Torino, Sassari, Firenze and Napoli Federico II, scientific reference Prof. Massimo Attanasio (UNIPA), Data Source ANS-MUR/CINECA.
We applied several thresholds of distance to distinguish between stayers and movers. Despite the cutoff point used to define the two groups, the descriptive statistics always reported that our academic outcomes are unaffected by distance. For further robustness, we also checked the distribution of the average mark obtained in the first year (i.e. whether above or below the average mark) among the two categories and still no differences emerged.
For the sake of brevity, we do not include the tables for the descriptive analysis and for the test of validity of our instrument in the paper, but they are available upon request.
Since we are interested in modelling academic progression after the initial choice, the sample is composed of only freshmen (i.e. first time observed in the HE system), although they can enrol at university in subsequent years than the one of high school diploma attainment (i.e. gap years).
Our model is estimated using the routine cmp written in STATA by Roodman (2011).
As a robustness check, we included in our specification university-specific fixed effects to account for possible heterogeneity in the way programmes are organized and taught across institutions (as well as to consider possible institutional failures to deal with students’ abilities and ambitions) according to the negative view explained in the Introduction. The results remained basically unchanged. For the sake of brevity, we do not report these findings. These are available upon request.
For a detailed discussion of the instrument choice and its validity, see Sect. 4.
As a robustness check, we estimated our model without the variables CFU and GPA, as they might be considered a potential source of endogeneity. The results remained the same for all variables with only few exceptions. For after one year equations, we find difference for females for switching major. Without the control variables, female in Economics do not (significantly) switch, while for Business the probability is positive. Other small changes are observed for the dummy variables of both HS and lyceum diploma share distributions. Estimates are reported in the Online Appendix (see Tables A1, A2 and A3).
Rho coefficient estimates for both Economics and Business suggest that selection exists. This reassures on our model choice.
References
Aina C (2011) The determinants of success and failure of Italian university students. evidence from administrative data. Rivista Internazionale Di Scienze Sociali 2:85–108
Aina C, Nicoletti C (2018) The intergenerational transmission of liberal professions. Labour Econ 51:108–120
Aina C, Bratti M, Lippo E (2020) Ranking high schools using university student performance in Italy. Econ Polit
Aina C, Baici E, Casalone G, Pastore F (2021).The determinants of university dropout: A review of the socio-economic literature. Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, forthcoming
Alon S, DiPrete TA (2017) Gender differences in the formation of a field of study choice set. Sociol Sci 2:50–81
Altonji J (1993) The demand for and return to education when education outcomes are uncertain. J Law Econ 11(1):48–83
Altonji J, Arcidiacono P, Maurel A (2016) The analysis of field choice in college and graduate school: determinants and wage effects. Handb Econ Educ, pages 305–396.
Anvur (2018) Rapporto biennale sullo stato del sistema universitario e della ricerca 2018.
Arcidiacono P (2004) Ability sorting and the returns to college major. J Econ 121(1–2):343–375
Arulampalam W, Naylor R, Smith J (2004a) Factors affecting the probability of first year medical student dropout in the UK: a logistic analysis for the intake cohorts of 1980–92. Med Educ 38:492–503
Arulampalam W, Naylor R, Smith J (2004b) A hazard model of the probability of medical school dropout in the UK. J R Stat Soc Ser A 167(1):157–178
Arulampalam W, Naylor R, Smith J (2007) Dropping out of medical school in the UK: Explaining the changes over ten years. Med Educ 38:385–394
Asarta CJ, Butters RB (2012) The discouraged-business-major hypothesis revisited: could economics be the encouraged-business-major? J Econ Educ 43(1):19–32
Asarta CJ, Scott MF, Perumal A (2013) How to transfer students perform in economics? Evidence from intermediate macroeconomics. J Econ Educ 44(2):110–128
Astorne-Figari C, Speer J (2018) Drop out, switch majors, or persist? The contrasting gender gaps. Econ Lett 164:82–85
Astorne-Figari C, Speer J (2019) Are changes of major major changes? The roles of grades, gender, and preferences in college major switching. Econ Educ Rev 70:75–93
Bauer P, Riphahn RT (2006) Timing of school tracking as a determinant of intergenerational transmission of education. Econ Lett 91(1):90–97
Belloc F, Maruotti A, Petrella L (2010) University drop-out: and Italian experience. High Educ 60:127–138
Bennet R (2009) Determinants of undergraduate student dropout rates in a university business studies department. J Furth High Educ 27:123–141
Berger M (1988) Predicted future earnings and the choice of college major. Ind Labor Relat Rev 41(3):418–429
Blom E, Cadena B, Keys B (2020) Investment over the business cycle: in-sights from college major choice. J Labor Econ
Bound J, Lovenheim M, Turner S (2009) Why have college completion rates declined? An analysis of changing student preparation and collegiate resources. Am J Appl Econ 2(3):129–157
Bowen W, Chingos M, McPherson M (2009) Crossing the finish line: Completing college at America’s public university. Princeton University Press, Princeton
Bradley S, Migali G (2019) The Effects of the 2006 tuition fee reform and the Great Recession on university student dropout behaviour in the UK. J Econ Behav Organ 164:331–356
Bratti M, Checchi D, DeBlasio G (2008) Does the expansion of higher education increase the equality of educational opportunities? Evidence from Italy. Labour 22:53–88
Brunello G, Checchi D (2007) Does school tracking affect equality of opportunity? New International evidence. Econ Policy 22(52):783–861
Cappellari L, Lucifora C (2009) The “bologna process” and college enrollment decisions. Labour Econ 22(52):638–647
Card D, Payne A (2017) High school choices and the gender gap in stem. Technical report, National Bureau of Economic Research.
Carrieri V, D’Amato M, Zotti R (2015) On the causal effects of selective admission policies on students’ performances: evidence from a quasi-experiment in a large Italian university. Oxf Econ Pap 67(4):1034–1056
Cattaneo M, Malighetti P, Meoli M, Paleari S (2017) University spatial competition for students: the Italian case. Reg Stud 51(5):750–764
Checchi D, Flabbi L (2013) Intergenerational mobility and schooling decisions in Germany and Italy: The impact of secondary school tracks. Rivista Di Politica Economica 3:7–57
Checchi D, Ichino A, Rustichini A (1999) More equal but less mobile? Education financing and intergenerational mobility in Italy and in the US. J Public Econ 74(3):351–393
Checchi D, Fiorio C, Leonardi M (2013) Intergenerational persistence of educational attainment in Italy. Econ Lett 118:229–232
Contini D, Scagni A (2011) Inequality of opportunity in secondary school enrolment in Italy, Germany and Netherlands. Qual Quant Int J Methodol 45(2):441–464
Contini D, Cugnata F, Scagni A (2018) Social selection in higher education. enrolment, dropout and timely degree attainment in Italy. High Educ 75:785–808
Correll SJ (2001) Gender and the career choice process: the role of biased self-assessments. Am J Sociol 106:1691–1730
Cottini E, Ghinetti P, Moriconi S (2019) Higher education supply, neighborhood effects and economic welfare. Cesifo Working Papers N.7483.
Cunha F, Heckman J, Navarro S (2005) Separating uncertainty from heterogeneity in life cycle earnings, the 2004 hicks lecture. Oxford Econ Pap 57(2):191–261
D’Agostino A, Ghellini G, Longobardi S (2019) Out-migration of university enrolment: the mobility behaviour of Italian students. Int J Manpow 40(1):56–72
Dale R (2007) Changing meanings of “the Europe of knowledge” and “modernizing the university,” from Bologna to the “new Lisbon.” Eur Educ 39(4):27–42
Deil-Amen R (2011) Socio-academic integrative moments: rethinking academic and social integration among two-year college students in career-related programs. J Higher Educ 82(1):54–91
Di Pietro G (2004) The determinants of university dropout in Italy: a bivariate probability model with sample selection. Appl Econ Lett 11:187–191
Dustmann C (2004) Parental background, secondary school track choice, and wages. Oxf Econ Pap 56(2):209–230
Fischer S (2017) The downside of good peers: how classroom composition differentially affects men’s and women’s stem persistence. Labour Econ 46:211–226
Frenette M (2006) Too far to go on? distance to school and university participation. Educ Econ 14(1):31–58
Goldin C, Katz LF, Kuziemko I (2006) The Homecoming of American college women: the reversal of the college gender gap. J Econ Perspect 20:133–156
Griffith AL (2010) Persistence of women and minorities in stem field majors: Is it the school that matters? Econ Educ Rev 6:911–922
Hanushek E, Wößmann L (2006) Does educational tracking affect performance and inequality? Differences-in-differences evidence across countries. Econ J 116(510):C63–C76
Heckman J (1979) Sample selection bias as a specification error. Econometrica 47(1):153–161
Jacobs JA (1995) Gender and academic specialties: trends among recipients of college degrees in the 1980s. Sociol Educ 68:81–98
Johnes G, McNabb R (2004) Never give up on the good times: Student attrition in the uk. Oxford Bull Stat 66(1):23–48
Manski C (1989) Schooling as experimentation: a reappraisal of the post-secondary dropout phenomenon. Econ Educ Rev 8(4):305–312
Mastekaasa A, Smeby J (2008) Educational choice and persistence in male-and female-dominated fields. High Educ 55(2):189–202
McNabb R, Pal S, Sloane P (2002) Gender differences in educational attainment: the case of university students in England and Wales. Economica 69:481–503
MIUR (2019) La dispersione scolastica nell’anno scolastico 2016/17 e nel passaggio nell’anno scolastico 2017/18, Report Gestione Patrimonio Informativo e Statistica.
Montmarquette C, K., K. C., and Mahseredjian, S. (2002) How do young people choose college majors? Econ Educ Rev 21:543–556
Montmarquette C, Mahseredjian S, Houle., R. (2001) The determinants of university dropouts: a bivariate probability model with sample selection. Econ Educ Rev 20(5):475–484
OECD (2019) Education at a glance: Oecd indicators. OECD Publishing, Paris
Ost B (2010) The role of peers and grades in determining major persistence in the sciences. Econ Educ Rev 46:923–934
Owen A (2010) Grades, gender, and encouragement: a regression discontinuity analysis. J Econ Educ 41(3):217–234
Paglin M, Rufolo A (1990) Heterogenous human capital, occupational choice, and male-female earnings differences. J Law Econ 8(1):123–144
Panichella N, Triventi M (2014) Social inequalities in the choices of secondary school. Eur Soc 16(5):666–693
Pascarella E, Terenzini P (1978a) The relation of students’ precollege characteristics and freshman year experience to voluntary attrition. Res High Educ 9:347–366
Pascarella E, Terenzini P (1978b) Student-faculty informal relationships and freshman year educational outcomes. J Educ Res 71(4):183–189
Pascarella E, Terenzini P, Hiberl J (1978) Student-faculty interactional settings and their relationship to predicted academic performance. J Higher Educ 49(5):450–463
Rask K, Tiefenthaler J (2008) The role of grade sensitivity in explaining the gender imbalance in undergraduate economics. Econ Educ Rev 27(6):676–687
Reilly D (2012) Gender, culture, and sex-typed cognitive abilities. PLoS ONE 7(7):e39904. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0039904
Reize F (2001) Fiml estimation of a bivariate probit selection rule: an application on firm growth and subsidization. ZEW Discussion paper n. 01–13.
Roodman D (2011) Fitting fully observed recursive mixed-process models with cmp. Stata J 11(2):159–206
Roodman D, Morduch J (2014) The impact of microcredit on the poor in Bangladesh: revisiting the evidence. J Dev Stud 50(4):583–604
Salemi MK, Eubanks C (1996) Accounting for the rise and fall in the number of economics majors with the discouraged business-major hypothesis. J Econ Educ 27(3):350–361
Severien SE, Schmidt HG (2009) Academic and social integration and study progress n problem based learning. High Educ 58:59–69
Siegfried, J.J: and Wilkinson, J.T. (1982) The economics curriculum in the United States: 1980. Am Econ Rev 72(2):125–138
Smith J, Naylor A (2001) Dropping out of university: a statistical analysis of the probability of withdrawal for UK university students. J R Stat Soc Ser A 164(2):389–405
Spiess K, Wrohlich K (2010) Does distance determine who attends a university in Germany? Econ Educ Rev 29(3):470–479
Stinebrickner R, Stinebrickner T (2001) How do college students form expectations? Rev Econ Stud 81:289–313
Stinebrickner T, Stinebrickner R (2003) Working during school and academic performance. J Law Econ 21(2):473–491
Stinebrickner T, Stinebrickner R (2006) What can be learned about peer effects using college roommates? Evidence from new survey data and students from disadvantaged backgrounds. J Public Econ 90(8–9):1435–1454
Stinebrickner T, Stinebrickner R (2012) Learning about academic ability and the college dropout decision. J Law Econ 30(4):707–748
Stinebrickner R, Stinebrickner T (2014) A major in science? Initial beliefs and final outcomes for college major and dropout. Rev Econ Stud 81(1):426–472
Stratton L, P’Toole D, Wetzel J (2008) A multinomial logit model of college stopout and dropout behavior. Econ Educ Rev 27(3):319–331
Tinto V (1975) Dropout from higher education: a theoretical synthesis of recent research. Rev Educ Res 45:89–125
Trivellato P, Triventi M (2009) Participation, performance and inequality in Italian higher education in the 20th century. High Educ 57(6):681–702
Ware N, Lee V (1988) Sex differences in choice of college science majors. Am Educ Res J 25(4):593–614
Ware N, Steckler N, Leserman J (1985) Undergraduate women: who chooses a science major? J Higher Educ 56(1):73–84
Zafar B (2011) How do college students form expectations? J Law Econ 29(2):301–348
Zhao C, Kuh GD (2004) Adding value: learning communities and student engagement. Res High Educ 45:115–138
Acknowledgements
Carmen Aina gratefully acknowledges the financial support of the Università del Piemonte Orientale (grant FAR2017). We are grateful to Irene Brunetti, Dalit Contini, Lavinia Parisi, Roberto Zotti and two anonymous referees and the Editor for valuable comments. We thank participants at AIEL and SIE conferences in 2020 for useful comments.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
Carmen Aina: Conceptualization, Methodology, Investigation, Formal Analysis, Writing – review & editing, Funding acquisition. Chiara Mussida: Conceptualization, Methodology, Investigation, Formal Analysis, Writing – review & editing. Gabriele Lomabardi: Data cleaning and Descriptive Statistics.
Corresponding author
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Supplementary Information
Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Aina, C., Mussida, C. & Lombardi, G. Are Business and Economics Alike?. Ital Econ J 9, 557–585 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40797-021-00177-w
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40797-021-00177-w