Abstract
Large reservoirs can alter the natural thermal regime and result in the delivery of water with unseasonal water temperatures downstream. Establishing a detailed understanding how a river’s thermal regime has changed from its natural state is a critical step required before mitigation options can be investigated. Our study focussed on one of Australia’s most iconic rivers, the Snowy River which is regulated by multiple headwater regulating structures. We used mean daily pre-dam water temperature (1962–1967) data from the Snowy River to develop generalized additive models (GAMs) to predict the natural (daily mean, max and min) water temperatures in the Snowy River. Daily modelled natural water temperatures were compared with daily observed water temperatures in the regulated Snowy River and two nearby analogue reference streams. Using the GAMs, we identified a reduced thermal range (max and min) and water temperatures ≥ 2 °C warmer than natural between the cooler months of April and July for at least 50 % of the study period. Temperatures rarely (< 15 % of study period) exceeded 4 °C above natural. We show that both GAMs and appropriately selected reference streams are useful for assessing thermal regime change. Future work should focus on clearly identifying if small deviations from natural water temperatures during these periods results in significant ecological consequences in snowmelt streams.
Highlights
• Regulation in the iconic snow-fed Snowy River causes minor warm water pollution during cooler months.
• Predicted natural water temperatures using GAMs and reference streams are both useful to assess thermal change.
• The ecological consequences of minor warm water pollution (i.e., > 2 °C) requires further investigation.
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Data Availability
The data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author, Daniel Coleman, upon reasonable request.
Code of availability
Basic, share upon request.
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Acknowledgements
This work was conducted as part of the Snowy Environmental Flow Response Monitoring and Modelling Program supported by the NSW Department of Planning, Industry and Environment.
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This work was conducted as part of the Snowy Environmental Flow Response Monitoring and Modelling Program supported by the NSW Department of Planning, Industry and Environment.
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All authors contributed to the study conception and design. Material preparation and data collection were performed by Daniel Coleman, Ivars Reinfelds and Robyn Bevitt. Analyses were performed by Daniel Coleman. The first draft of the manuscript was written by Daniel Coleman and all authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.
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Coleman, D., Bevitt, R. & Reinfelds, I. Predicting the Thermal Regime Change of a Regulated Snowmelt River Using a Generalised Additive Model and Analogue Reference Streams. Environ. Process. 8, 511–531 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40710-021-00501-7
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40710-021-00501-7