Abstract
Following the unconditional definition of drought events, this study presents general mathematical expressions that can be used to evaluate the occurrence probability and the return period of multiyear drought events of extreme magnitude evolved after truncating low order dependent hydrological or meteorological processes. The drought magnitude was fitted using the gamma distribution and the drought run length was defined unconditionally regardless where the run starts as long as it satisfies the continuity. Considering the joint analysis of the drought magnitude and the run length, the characteristics of the multiyear drought of extreme magnitude achieved theoretically was found to match well with empirical results obtained after analyzing the simulated and historical precipitation. After truncating the annual rainy season precipitation for Madaba region in Jordan, the 6-year extreme historical drought that occurred in 1958–1963 was a rare event recurring every 226 years. In the semi-arid region of Madaba, meteorological drought events of a short duration, 2–3 years, and a precipitation deficit of 149 mm or less are frequent events with 7–10 years return period, while events of 4 years or more, tested at deficit threshold of 149 mm, are less frequent events regardless of their magnitude.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Akyuz D, Bayazit M, Onoz B (2013) Markov chain models for hydrological drought characteristics. J Hydrometeorol 13(1):298–309
Alqadi K, Kumar L (2014) Water policy in Jordan. Int J Water Resour Dev 30(2):322–334
Barua S, Perera B, Ng A, Tran D (2010) Drought forecasting using an aggregated drought index and artificial neural network. Water and Climate Change 1(3):193–206
Biondi F, Kozubowski T, Panorska A (2005) A new model for quantifying climate episodes. Int J Climatol 25:1253–1264
Blenkinsop S, Fowler H (2007) Changes in drought frequency, severity and duration for the British isles projected by the PRUDENCE regional climate models. J Hydrol 342:50–71
Bonaccorso B, Peres D, Cancelliere A, Rossi G (2013) Large scale probabilistic drought characterization over Europe. Water Resour Manag 27(6):1675–1692
Byun H, Wilhite D (1999) Objective quantification of drought severity and duration. J Clim 12:2747–2756
Cancelliere A, Salas J (2010) Drought probabilities and return period for annual streamflows series. J Hydrol 391:77–89
Gonzalez J, Valdes J (2003) Bivariate drought analysis using tree ring reconstruction. J Hydrol Eng 8(4):247–257
Halwatura D, Lechner A, Arnold S (2015) Drought severity–duration–frequency curves: a foundation for risk assessment and planning tool for ecosystem establishment in post-mining landscapes. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 19:1069–1091
van Huijgevoot M, van Lanen H, Teuling A, Uijlenhoet R (2014) Identification of changes in hydrological drought characteristics from a multi-GCM driven ensemble constrained by observed discharge. J Hydrol 512:421–434
Lee T, Modarres R, Ouarda T (2013) Data-based analysis of bivariate copula tail dependence for drought duration and severity. Hydrol Process 27:1454–1463
Loaiciga H, Michaelsen J, Garver S, Haston L, Leipnik R (1992) Droughts in river basins of the Western United States. Geophys Res Lett 19(20):2051–2054
Mishra A, Singh V, Desai V (2009) Drought characterization: a probabilistic approach. Stoch Env Res Risk A 23:41–55
Murthy C, Singh J, Kumar P, Sesha Sai M (2016) Meteorological drought analysis over India using analytical framework on CPC rainfall time series. Nat Hazards 81:573–587
Nalbantis I, Tsakiris G (2009) Assessment of hydrological drought revisited. Water Resour Manag 23:881–897
Rossi G, Cancelliere A (2003) At-site and regional drought identification by REDIM model. In: Rossi G et al (eds) Tools for drought mitigation in Mediterranean regions. Kluwer Academic Publishers, The Netherlands
Rossi G, Cancelliere A (2013) Managing drought risk in water supply systems in Europe: a review. Int J Water Resour Dev 29(2):272–289
Salas J, Fu C, Cancelliere A, Dustin D, Bode D, Pineda A, Vincent E (2005) Characterizing the severity and risk of drought in the Poudre River, Colorado. J Water Resour Plan Manag 131(5):383–393
Schwager J (1983) Run probabilities in sequences of Markov-dependent trials. J Am Stat Assoc 78(381):168–175
Serinaldi F, Bonaccorso B, Cancelliere A, Grimaldi S (2009) Probabilistic characterization of drought properties through copulas. Phys Chem Earth 34(10–12):596–605
Sharma T, Panu U (2013) Predicting drought magnitudes: a parsimonious model for Canadian hydrological droughts. Water Resour Manag 27(3):649–664
Shiau J (2006) Fitting drought duration and severity with two-dimensional copulas. Water Resour Manag 20(5):795–815
Shiau J, Shen H (2001) Recurrence analysis of hydrologic droughts of different severity. J Water Resour Plan Manag 127(1):30–40
Tabari H, Zamani R, Rahmati H, Willems P (2015) Markov chains of different orders for streamflow drought analysis. Water Resour Manag 29(9):3441–3457
Tarawneh Z (2011) Water supply in Jordan under drought conditions. Water Policy 13(6):863–876
Tigkas D, Tsakiris G (2015) Early estimation of drought impacts on rainfed wheat yield in Mediterranean climate. Environmental Processes 2:97–114
Tigkas D, Vangelis H, Tsakiris G (2017) An enhanced effective reconnaissance drought index for the characterisation of agricultural drought. Environmental Processes. doi:10.1007/s40710-017-0219-x
Tsakiris G, Loukas A, Pangalou D, Vangelis H, Tigkas D, Rossi G, Cancelliere A (2007) Drought characterization [Part 1. Components of drought planning. 1. 3. Methodological component]. In: Iglesias A, Moneo M, López-Francos A (eds) Drought management guidelines technical annex. Zaragoza : CIHEAM / EC MEDA Water, 2 007. p 85–1 02 (Options Méditerranéennes, Series B, No. 58)
Tsakiris G, Nalbantis I, Vangelis H, Verbeiren B, Huysmans M, Tychon B, Jacquemin I, Canters F, Vanderhaegen S, Engelen G, Poelmans L, De Becker P, Batelaan O (2013) A system-based paradigm of drought analysis for operational management. Water Resour Manag 27:5281–5297
Wong G, van Lanen H, Torfs P (2013) Probabilistic analysis of hydrological drought characteristics using meteorological drought. Hydrol Sci J 58(2):253–270
Woodhouse C (2003) A 431-yr reconstruction of western Colorado snowpack from tree rings. J Clim 16:1551–1561
Yevjevich V (1967) An objective approach to definitions and investigations of continental hydrologic droughts. Hydrology paper 23, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Tarawneh, Z., Hyari, K. & Katkhuda, H. Evaluating the Characteristics of Multiyear Extreme Droughts in Semi-Arid Regions. Environ. Process. 4, 683–696 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40710-017-0246-7
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40710-017-0246-7