Abstract
The purpose of this study was the quantification of today’s surface water resources of the Republic of Belarus and the prognostic assessment of their transformation in the future by means of mathematical modeling. The assessment of surface water resources in Belarus for the period 1960–2009 was made. Redistribution of water resources in the basins of major rivers and administrative areas was registered. Comparative analysis of maps of annual runoff in Belarus showed that the Western Dvina river basin was characterized by insignificant increase of the values of runoff and the increase of the water content of the Pripyat Basin for different probabilities of exceedance of the level varied from 0.4 to 1.7 km3. For the Neman and Viliya, a decrease in runoff was revealed. For other watersheds, changes in runoff were not found. Obtained results are important for water resources management and forecasting of their changes both in Belarus and internationally. The studied model can be effectively used in flood management.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Bubeck P, De Moel H, Bouwer LM, Aerts JCJH (2011) How reliable are projections of future flood damage? Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 11:3293–3306
Eum H-I, Dibike Y, Prowse T (2016) Comparative evaluation of the effects of climate and land-cover changes on hydrologic responses of the Muskeg River, Alberta, Canada. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies 8:198–221
Falter D, Schroter K, Dung NV, Vorogushyn S, Kreibich H, Hundecha Y, Apel H, Merz B (2015) Spatially coherent flood risk assessment based on long-term continuous simulations with a coupled model chain. J Hydrol 524:182–193
Hall JW, Evans EP, Penning-Rowsell EC, Sayers PB, Thorne CR, Saul AJ (2003) Quantified scenarios analysis of drivers and impact of changing flood risk in England and Wales: 2013–2100. Environ Hazards 5:51–65
International guidance on methods of calculation of the basic hydrological characteristics (1984) Hydrometizdat, Leningrad (in Russian)
Istomina MN, Kocharian AG, Lebedeva IP (2005) Floods: genesis, socio-economic and environmental impacts. Water Resources 4:389–398 (in Russian)
Kalinin MU, Volchak АА (2001) Water resources of the Belarusian Polesie: modern state, problems of studying the concept, use and resources. Natural Resources 4:35–48 (in Russian)
Korneev VN, Volchak AA Hertman LN, Usava IP, Anufriev VN, Pakhomau AV, Rusaya IE, Bulak IA, Bahadziazh EP, Dubenok SA, Zavyalov SV, Rachevsky AN, Rimkus E, Stonevičius E, Šepikas A, Buijs P, Crema G, Denisov NB, Koeppel S (2015) The strategic framework for adaptation to climate change in the Neman river basin / United Nations development Programme in Belarus and United Nations economic Commission for Europe. Brest
Kundzewich ZW (2014) Adapting flood preparedness tools to changing flood risk conditions: the situation in Poland. Oceanologia 56:385–407
Loginov VF (2003) Prognosis of the environmental change for 2010–2020. Minsk, Tipproekt (in Russian)
Mezentsev VS (1995) Hydrological and climatic hypothesis and examples of its use. Natural Resources 3:299–301 (in Russian)
Mironenko ZI (1966) Resources of surface water of USSR. Belarus and the upper reaches of the Dnieper. Hydrometizdat, Leningrad (in Russian)
Pluzhnikov VN, Fadeeva MV, Buchurin VI (1996) Water resources of Belarus, their use and protection. Natural Resources 1:24–29 (in Russian)
Te Linde AH, Bubeck P, Dekkers JEC, de Moel H, Aerts JCJH (2011) Future flood risk estimates along the river Rhine. Nat Hazards Earth Sust Sci 11:459–473
The BACC II Author Team (2015) Second assessment of climate change for the Baltic Sea basin. Springer, Geesthacht
The Ministry of Architecture and Construction of the Republic of Belarus (2010) Technical code of good practice. Calculated hydrological parameters. TCP 45–3.04-168-2009(02250)//Minsk: «Strojtecnorm». (in Russian)
The National Atlas of Belarus (2002) Minsk: Belkartografiya. (in Belarusian)
Volchak AA (2011) Regularities of formation of water balance of river catchments of Belarus: the formation of water balance of Belarus. LAP LAMBERT Academic Publishing GmbH & Co. KG, Saarbrucken (in Russian)
Volchak AA, Parfomuk SI (2007) Estimation of water resources transformation of water regime of small rivers of Belorussian Polesie (on the example of river Yaselda). Russian water management: problems, technologies, administration 1:50–62 (in Russian)
Volchak AA, Luksha VV, Parfomuk SI (2011) Water resources of Belarus: current situation and forecast. LAP LAMBERT Academic Publishing GmbH & Co. KG, Saarbrucken (in Russian)
Volchak A, Kirvel I, Parfomuk S, Makhambetova R (2013) The present-day condition of water resources in Belarus. Limnological Review 13(4):221–227
Volchak A, Kirvel I, Parfomuk S (2016a) The changes of water resources in Belarus Geography in the Face of Modern World Challenges. – Krakow: 63–72
Volchak AA, Meshyk AP, Sheshka MM, Bulskaya IV (2016b) Floods on the territory of Polesie. Procedia Engineering 162:91–97
Acknowledgments
A previous version of the paper has been presented in the 2nd EWaS International Conference: “Efficient & Sustainable Water Systems Management toward Worth Living Development”, Chania, Crete, Greece, 1-4 June 2016.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Volchak, А...А., Bulskaya, I.V. Water Resources of Belarus under Changing Climate Conditions: Current Status and Prognosis. Environ. Process. 4 (Suppl 1), 125–136 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40710-017-0231-1
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40710-017-0231-1