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Finding the Fingerprint of Anthropogenic Climate Change in Marine Phytoplankton Abundance

Current Climate Change Reports volume 6, pages 37–46 (2020)Cite this article

Abstract

Purpose of Review

We review how phytoplankton abundance may be responding to the increase in stratification associated with anthropogenic climate change, providing context on the utility of remote sensing datasets and Earth system model output to understand these perturbations.

Recent Findings

Assessing disruption in the ocean biosphere using remote sensing datasets is challenged by the relatively short length of the observational record, restricting our ability to disentangle fluctuations due to internal climate variability from those imposed by externally forced anthropogenic trends. Ensembles of Earth system models can be used to quantify past and future drivers, but may not skillfully predict observed spatial patterns and temporal dynamics in marine phytoplankton.

Summary

To better understand the role of internal climate variability in the observational record, we construct a synthetic ensemble of global chlorophyll concentration over the MODIS satellite mission using statistical emulation techniques. We emphasize the use of a synthetic ensemble to illuminate the role of internal climate variability in the evolution of the ocean biosphere over time.

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Funding

GWE, NSL, KMK, and RXB are funded by the National Science Foundation (OCE-1752724, OCE-1558225).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Geological Sciences and Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado Boulder, Campus Box 450, Boulder, CO, 80309-0450, USA

    Geneviève W. Elsworth

  2. Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA

    Nicole S. Lovenduski & Riley X. Brady

  3. Department of Statistics and Institute of the Environment and Sustainability, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA

    Karen A. McKinnon

  4. Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA

    Kristen M. Krumhardt

Authors
  1. Geneviève W. Elsworth
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  2. Nicole S. Lovenduski
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  3. Karen A. McKinnon
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  4. Kristen M. Krumhardt
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  5. Riley X. Brady
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Correspondence to Geneviève W. Elsworth.

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Elsworth, G.W., Lovenduski, N.S., McKinnon, K.A. et al. Finding the Fingerprint of Anthropogenic Climate Change in Marine Phytoplankton Abundance. Curr Clim Change Rep 6, 37–46 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-020-00156-w

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-020-00156-w

Keywords

  • Ocean biosphere
  • Phytoplankton abundance
  • Climate variability
  • Anthropogenic trends
  • Stratification
  • Global carbon cycle