Adler RF, Gu G, Sapiano M, Wang J-J, Huffman GJ. Global precipitation: means, variations and trends during the satellite era (1979–2014). Surv Geophys. 2017;38:679–99. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-017-9416-4.
American Meteorological Society (AMS) (2013) Drought—an information statement. [https://www.ametsoc.org/ams/index.cfm/about-ams/ams-statements/statements-of-the-ams-in-force/drought/].
Ball JT, Woodrow IE, Berry JA (1987) Progress in photosynthesis research, Biggins J (ed.), Martinus Nijhoff, Dordrecht, The Netherlands, pp. 221–224.
Berg A, et al. Land–atmosphere feedbacks amplify aridity increase over land under global warming. Nat. Clim. Chang. 2016;6(9):869–74. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3029.
Berg A, Sheffield J, Milly P. Divergent surface and total soil moisture projections under global warming. Geophys Res Lett. 2017;44:236–44. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL071921.
Bonfils C, Anderson G, Santer BD, Phillips TJ, Taylor KE, Cuntz M, et al. Competing influences of anthropogenic warming, ENSO, and plant physiology on future terrestrial aridity. J. Climate. 2017;30:6883–904. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0005.1
Bonan G, Williams M, Fisher R, Oleson K. Modeling stomatal conductance in the earth system: linking leaf water-use efficiency and water transport along the soil–plant–atmosphere continuum. Geosci. Model Dev. 2014;7:2193–222.
Burgman RJ, Jang Y. Simulated U.S. drought response to interannual and decadal Pacific SST variability. J. Climate. 2015;28:4688–705.
Burke EJ. Understanding the sensitivity of different drought metrics to the drivers of drought under increased atmospheric CO2. J. Hydrometeor. 2011;12:1378–94. https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JHM1386.1.
Burke EJ, Brown SJ. Evaluating uncertainties in the projection of future drought. J. Hydrometeor. 2008;9:292–9.
Burls NJ, Fedorov AV. Wetter subtropics in a warmer world: contrasting past and future hydrological cycles. Proceed Nat Acad Sci. 2017;28:12,888–93. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1703421114.
Byrne MP, O’Gorman PA. Understanding decreases in land relative humidity with global warming: conceptual model and GCM simulations. J Climate. 2016;29:9045–61. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0351.1.
Chou C, Neelin JD, Chen C-A, Tu J-Y. Evaluating the “rich-get-richer” mechanism in tropical precipitation change under global warming. J. Climate. 2009;22:1982–2005. https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2471.1.
Collins M et al. (2013) Long-term climate change: projections, commitments and irreversibility. In: Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
Cook BI, Smerdon JE, Seager R, Coats S. Global warming and 21st century drying. Climate Dyn. 2014;43:2607–27.
Cook BI, Cook ER, Smerdon JE, Seager R, Williams AP, Coats S, et al. North American megadroughts in the Common Era: reconstructions and simulations. WIREs Clim Change. 2016;7:411–32. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.394.
Dai A. Recent climatology, variability and trends in global surface humidity. J. Climate. 2006;19:3589–606.
Dai A. Drought under global warming: a review. WIREs. Clim Change. 2011a;2:45–65.
Dai A. Characteristics and trends in various forms of the Palmer Drought Severity Index during 1900–2008. J Geophys Res. 2011b;116:D12115.
Dai A. Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models. Nature. Clim Change. 2013a;3:52–8.
Dai A. (2013b) The influence of the inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation on U.S. precipitation during 1923–2010. Climate Dynamics, 41: 633–646. DOI https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1446-5.
Dai A (2016a) Future warming patterns linked to today’s climate variability. Sci Rep, 6: 19110, doi:https://doi.org/10.1038/srep19110.
Dai A (2016b) Historical and future changes in streamflow and continental runoff: a review. Chapter 2 of terrestrial water cycle and climate change: natural and human-induced impacts, Geophysical Monograph 221, edited by Qiuhong Tang and Taikan Oki, AGU, John Wiley & Sons, pp. 17–37.
Dai A, Fung IY, Del Genio AD. Surface observed global land precipitation variations during 1900–1988. J Clim. 1997;10:2943–62.
Dai A, Wigley TML. Global patterns of ENSO-induced precipitation. Geophys Res Lett. 2000;27:1283–6.
Dai A, Trenberth KE, Qian T. A global dataset of Palmer Drought Severity Index for 1870–2002: relationship with soil moisture and effects of surface warming. J Hydrometeorol. 2004;5:1117–30. https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-386.1.
Dai A, Zhao T. Uncertainties in historical changes and future projections of drought. Part I: estimates of historical drought changes. Climatic Change. 2017;144:519–33. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1705-2.
Dai, A., R.M. Rasmussen, C. Liu, K. Ikeda, and A.F. Prein (2017a) A new mechanism for warm-season precipitation response to global warming based on convection-permitting simulations. Clim Dynamics, DOI:https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3787-6.
Dai, A., R.M. Rasmussen, K. Ikeda, and C. Liu (2017b) A new approach to construct representative future forcing data for dynamic downscaling. Clim Dynamics, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3708-8.
Dai, A., and C.E. Bloecker (2018) Impacts of internal variability on temperature and precipitation trends in large ensemble simulations by two climate models. Clim Dynamics, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4132-4
Delworth TL, Zeng F, Rosati A, Vecchi GA, Wittenberg AT. A link between the hiatus in global warming and North American drought. J Climate. 2015;28:3834–45.
Deser C, Phillips AS, Alexander MA, Smoliak BV. Projecting North American climate over the next 50 years: uncertainty due to internal variability. J. Clim. 2014;27:2271–96. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00451.1.
Dong B, Dai A. The influence of the inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation on temperature and precipitation over the globe. Clim Dynamics. 2015;45:2667–81. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2500-x.
Feng S, Fu Q. Expansion of global dry lands under warming climate. Atmos Chem Phys. 2013;13:10081–10,094.
Feng S, Hu Q, Huang W, Ho CH, Li R, Tang Z. Projected climate regime shift under future global warming from multi-model, multi-scenario CMIP5 simulations. Global Planet Change. 2014;112:41–52. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2013.11.002.
Ficklin DL, Novick KA. Historic and projected changes in vapor pressure deficit suggest a continental-scale drying of the United States atmosphere. J Geophys Res Atmos. 2017;122:2061–79. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JD025855.
Findell KL, Delworth TL. Impact of common sea surface temperature anomalies on global drought and pluvial frequency. J Clim. 2010;23:485–503.
Fu Q, Feng S. Responses of terrestrial aridity to global warming. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 2014;119:7863–75.
Fu Q, Lin L, Huang J, Feng S, Gettelman A. Changes in terrestrial aridity for the period 850–2080 from the Community Earth System Model. J. Geop hys. Res. Atmos. 2016;121:2857–73. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD024075.
Giannini A, Saravanan R, Chang P. Oceanic forcing of Sahel rainfall on interannual to interdecadal time scales. Science. 2003;302:1027–30.
Gu G, Adler RF. Interdecadal variability/long-term changes in global precipitation patterns during the past three decades: global warming and/or Pacific decadal variability? Clim Dyn. 2013;40:3009–22. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1443-8.
Gu G, Adler RF. Spatial patterns of global precipitation change and variability during 1901–2010. J Clim. 2015;28:4431–53. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00201.1.
Hartmann DL et al. (2013) Observations: atmosphere and surface. In: Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
Hartmann DL. Global physical climatology. 2nd ed. Amsterdam: Elsevier; 2016. p. 485.
Hegerl, G. C. et al. 2007: Understanding and attributing climate change. Climate change 2007: the physical science basis, S. Solomon et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, 663–745.
Hegerl GC, et al. Challenges in quantifying changes in the global water cycle. Bull Am Met Soc. 2015;96:1097–115. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00212.1.
Hirabayashi Y, Mahendran R, Koirala S, Konoshima L, Yamazaki D, Watanabe S, et al. Global flood risk under climate change. Nat Clim Change. 2013;3:816–21. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1911.
Hobbins M, Wood A, McEvoy D, Huntington J, Morton C, Anderson M, Hain C (2016). The evaporative demand drought index. Part I: linking drought evolution to variations in evaporative demand. J Hydrometeorol, 17(6), 1745–1761. doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-15-0121.1
Hoerling M, Hurrell J, Eischeid J, Phillips A. Detection and attribution of twentieth-century northern and southern African rainfall change. J. Climate. 2006;19:3989–4008. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3842.1.
Hoerling MP, Eischeid J, Perlwitz J. Regional precipitation trends: distinguishing natural variability from anthropogenic forcing. J. Climate. 2010;23:2131–45. https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI3420.1.
Hoerling MP, Eischeid J, Kumar A, Leung R, Mariotti A, Mo K, et al. Causes and predictability of the 2012 Great Plains drought. Bull Amer Meteor Soc. 2014;95:269–82.
Hu Q, Feng S. AMO- and ENSO-driven summertime circulation and precipitation variations in North America. J Climate. 2012;25:6477–95. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00520.1.
Hu Q, Veres MC. Atmospheric responses to North Atlantic SST anomalies in idealized experiments. Part II: North Am Precipitation J Climate. 2016;29(2):659–71.
Huang J, Y. Li, C. Fu, F. Chen, Q. Fu, A. Dai, M. Shinoda, Z. Ma, W. Guo, Z. Li, L. Zhang, Y. Liu, H. Yu, Y. He, Y. Xie, X. Guan, M. Ji, L. Lin, S. Wang, H. Yan, and G. Wang (2017) Dryland climate change: recent progress and challenges. Rev Geophys 55: 719–778.
Huang, D., A. Dai, et al. (2018) Are the transient and equilibrium climate change patterns different in response to increased CO2? To be submitted to Climate Dynamics.
Kam J, Sheffield J, Wood EF. Changes in drought risk over the contiguous United States (1901–2012): the influence of the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. Geophys Res Lett. 2014;41:5897–903.
Katul G, Manzoni S, Palmroth S, Oren R. A stomatal optimization theory to describe the effects of atmospheric CO2 on leaf photosynthesis and transpiration. Ann Botany. 2010;105:431–42.
Keyantash J, Dracup JA. The quantification of drought: an evaluation of drought indices. Bull Am Met Soc. 2002;83:1167–80.
Leuning R. A critical appraisal of a combined stomatal-photosynthesis model for C3 plants. Plant Cell Environ. 1995;18(4):339–55.
Liu ZY. Dynamics of interdecadal climate variability: a historical perspective. J Clim. 2012;25:1963–95.
McGee D, Broecker WS, Winckler G. Gustiness: the driver of glacial dustiness? Quat Sci Rev. 2010;29:2340–50. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2010.06.009.
Medlyn BE, et al. Reconciling the optimal and empirical approaches to modelling stomatal conductance. Glob Change Biol. 2011;2134–2144(2011):17.
Meehl, G.A., T.F. Stocker, W.D. Collins, P. Friedlingstein, A.T. Gaye, J.M. Gregory, A. Kitoh, R. Knutti, J.M. Murphy, A. Noda, S.C.B. Raper, I.G. Watterson, A.J. Weaver and Z.-C. Zhao (2007): Global climate projections. In: Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
Milly PCD, Dunne KA. Potential evapotranspiration and continental drying. Nat Clim Change. 2016;6:946–9. https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE3046.
Mishra AK, Singh VP. A review of drought concepts. J Hydrol. 2010;391:202–16. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.07.012.
Mo KC, Lettenmaier DP. Heat wave flash droughts in decline. Geophys Res Lett. 2015;42:2823–9. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL064018.
Mo KC, Lettenmaier DP. Precipitation deficit flash droughts over the United States. J Hydrometeorol. 2016;17:1169–84.
Muhs DR. The geologic records of dust in the Quaternary. Aeolian Res. 2013;9:3–48. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aeolia.2012.08.001.
Namias J. Some causes of United States drought. J Clim Appl Meteor. 1983;22:30–9.
Novick K, et al. The increasing importance of atmospheric demand for ecosystem water and carbon fluxes. Nat Clim Chang. 2016;6(11):1023–7. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3114.
Palmer WC (1965) Meteorological drought. Research Paper No. 45, US Dept. of Commerce, pp. 58 . [Available from http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/drought/palmer.pdf].
Petit JR, et al. Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok ice core, Antarctica. Nature. 1999;399:429–36. https://doi.org/10.1038/20859.
Prentice IC, et al. Mid-Holocene and glacial-maximum vegetation geography of the northern continents and Africa. J. Biogeogr. 2000;27:507–19. https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-2699.2000.00425.x.
Prentice IC, Harrison SP, Bartlein PJ. Global vegetation and terrestrial carbon cycle changes after the last ice age. New Phytol. 2011;189:988–98. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1469-8137.2010.03620.x.
Prudhomme C, et al. Hydrological droughts in the 21st century, hotspots and uncertainties from a global multimodel ensemble experiment. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. 2014;111(9):3262–7.
Qian T, Dai A, Trenberth KE, Oleson KW. Simulation of global land surface conditions from 1948-2004 Part I: forcing data and evaluation. J Hydrometeorol. 2006;7:953–75.
Rasmussen K L, Prein A F, Rasmussen R M, Ikeda K, and Liu C (2017) Changes in the convective population and thermodynamic environments in convection-permitting regional climate simulations over the United States. Climate Dynamics, doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-4000-7.
Routson CC, Woodhouse CA, Overpeck JT, Betancourt JL, McKay NP. Teleconnected ocean forcing of Western North American droughts and pluvials during the last millennium. Quaternary Science Reviews. 2016;146:238–50.
Scheff J, Frierson DMW. Robust future precipitation declines in CMIP5 largely reflect the poleward expansion of model subtropical dry zones. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2012;39:L18704. https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL052910.
Scheff J, Frierson DMW. Scaling potential evapotranspiration with greenhouse warming. J Clim. 2014;27:1539–58. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00233.1.
Scheff J, Frierson DMW. Terrestrial aridity and its response to greenhouse warming across CMIP5 climate models. J Clim. 2015;28:5583–600.
Scheff J, Seager R, Liu H, Coats S. Are glacials dry? Consequences for paleoclimatology and for greenhouse warming. J. Climate. 2017;30:6593–609. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0854.1.
Schubert SD, Gutzler D, Wang HL, Dai A, Delworth T, et al. A US CLIVAR project to assess and compare the responses of global climate models to drought-related SST forcing patterns: overview and results. J Clim. 2009;22:5251–72.
Schubert SD, et al. Global meteorological drought: a synthesis of current understanding with a focus on SST drivers of precipitation deficits. J Clim. 2016;29:3989–4019.
Sheffield J, Wood EF. Projected changes in drought occurrence under future global warming from multi-model, multi-scenario, IPCC AR4 simulations. Clim Dyn. 2008;31:79–105.
Sheffield J, Wood EF, Roderick ML. Little change in global drought over the past 60 years. Nature. 2012;491(7424):435–8.
Seager R, Kushnir Y, Herweijer C, Naik N, Velez J. Modeling of tropical forcing of persistent droughts and pluvials over western North America: 1856–2000. J Clim. 2005;18:4068–91.
Seager R, Hoerling M. Atmosphere and ocean origins of North American droughts. J Clim. 2014;27(12):4581–606.
Seager R, Ting M. Decadal drought variability over North America: mechanisms and predictability. Curr Clim Change Rep. 2017;3:141–9.
Sun Y, Solomon S, Dai A, Portmann R. How often will it rain? J Climate. 2007;20:4801–18.
Sun Q, Miao C, AghaKouchak A, Duan Q. Century-scale causal relationships between global dry/wet conditions and the state of the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. Geophys Res Lett. 2016;43(12):6528–37. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL069628.
Swann ALS, Hoffman FM, Koven CD, Randerson JT. Plant responses to increasing CO2 reduce estimates of climate impacts on drought severity. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. 2016;113:10019–10,024. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1604581113.
Trenberth KE. Changes in precipitation with climate change. Clime Res. 2011;47:123–38. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00953.
Trenberth, K. E., A. Dai, R. M. Rasmussen, and D. B. Parsons (2003) The changing character of precipitation. Bull Amer Meteorol Soc., 84, 1205–1217.
Trenberth KE, Branstator GW, Arkin PA. Origins of the 1988 North American drought. Science. 1988;242:1640–6.
Trenberth KE, Dai A, van der Schrier G, Jones PD, Barichivich J, Briffa KR, et al. Global warming and changes in drought. Nature Climate Change. 2014;4:17–22.
van der Schrier G, Jones PD, Briffa KR. The sensitivity of the PDSI to the Thornthwaite and Penman-Monteith parameterizations for potential evapotranspiration. J Geophys Res Atmos. 2011;116:D03106. https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD015001.
van der Schrier G, Barichivich J, Briffa KR, Jones PD. A scPDSI-based global data set of dry and wet spells for 1901–2009. J Geophys Res Atmos. 2013;118:4025–48. https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50355.
Vicente-Serrano SM, Beguería S, López-Moreno JI. A multi-scalar drought index sensitive to global warming: the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index—SPEI. J Clim. 2010;23:1696–718.
Xie S, Deser C, Vecchi GA, Ma J, Teng H, Wittenberg AT. Global warming pattern formation: sea surface temperature and rainfall. J Clim. 2010;23:966–86. https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI3329.1.
Zhao T, Dai A. The magnitude and causes of global drought changes in the 21st century under a low–low-moderate emissions scenario. J Clim. 2015;28:4490–512.
Zhao T, Dai A. Uncertainties in historical changes and future projections of drought. Part II: model-simulated historical and future drought changes. Clim Change. 2017;144:535–48. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1742-x.
Zhao S, Deng Y, and Black RX (2017) Observed and simulated spring and summer dryness in the United States: the impact of the Pacific Sea surface temperature and beyond. J Geophys Res, 122. doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JD027279
Wang GL. Agricultural drought in a future climate: results from 15 global climate models participating in the IPCC 4th assessment. Clim Dyn. 2005;25:739–53.
Wang L, Yuan X, Xie Z, Wu P, Li Y. Increasing flash droughts over China during the recent global warming hiatus. Sci Rep. 2016;6:30571. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep30571.
Wilhite DA (2000) Drought as a natural hazard: concepts and definitions. In Droughts: a global assessment, Wilhite DA (Ed.), Routledge, pp.3–18.
Willett KM, Jones PD, Gillett NP, Thorne PW. Recent changes in surface humidity: development of the HadCRUH dataset. J Clim. 2008;21:5364–83.
Williams AP, Seager R, Abatzoglou JT, Cook BI, Smerdon JE, Cook ER. Contribution of anthropogenic warming to California drought during 2012–2014. Geophys Res Lett. 2015;42(16):6819–28. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL064924.