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Decadal Prediction of Temperature: Achievements and Future Prospects

  • Decadal Predictability and Prediction (T Delworth, Section Editor)
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Abstract

Decadal prediction refers to predictions on annual, multi-year, and decadal time scales. This paper reviews major developments in decadal prediction that have occurred in the past few years, including attribution of temperature anomalies in northern latitudes, the recent slowdown in the rate of global warming (the “hiatus”), and mechanisms of decadal predictability that do not involve interactive ocean circulations. In addition, this paper discusses certain advances that, in the opinion of the author, have not been given the attention they deserve in previous reviews, including a unified framework for quantifying decadal predictability, empirical models for decadal prediction, defining improved indices of decadal predictability, and clarification of the relation between power spectra and predictability.

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Acknowledgements

I thank the anonymous reviewers for very helpful comments that lead to improvements in the presentation of this paper, and discussions with Michael K. Tippett and Jagadish Shukla that helped clarify some of the ideas presented in this paper. This work was supported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NA14OAR4310160, NA16OAR4310175), the National Science Foundation (AGS1338427), and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NNX14AM19G). The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of these agencies. The author states that there is no conflict of interest.

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    Timothy DelSole

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DelSole, T. Decadal Prediction of Temperature: Achievements and Future Prospects. Curr Clim Change Rep 3, 99–111 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-017-0066-x

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