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Assessment of risk factors associated with long-term mortality in nursing homes: result from the SENIOR cohort

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Abstract

Background

Previous studies on risk factors for death in nursing homes have focused on short-term observation and limited number risk factors.

Aims

This study aims to identify factors predictive of 8-year survival in nursing homes.

Methods

The study used the baseline measurements from the SENIOR cohort collected in 2013–2014. Data included clinical assessments (i.e., body composition, nutritional status, physical performance, level of dependence and cognition, frailty phenotype) as well as demographic information, number of medications and medical history. Mortality data were collected annually for 8 years. Univariate analyses were initially performed to assess potential predictive factors, followed by a Cox regression model using stepwise selection.

Results

Of the 662 participants enrolled in the cohort, 58 (8.8%) were not further assessed due to the withdrawal of 2 nursing homes and 71 (10.7%) had no mortality data available (i.e., relocation, refusal to continue the study). Among the 533 patients included, 111 (20.8%) were still alive in 2022. Median survival time was 4 years (1.93–6.94). Multivariate regression showed that younger age (HR = 1.04 (1.03–1.06)), higher body mass index (HR = 0.96 (0.94–0.98)), higher score on the Mini-Mental State-Examination (HR = 0.97 (0.94–0.99)) and higher score on the Short Physical Performance Battery (HR = 0.93 (0.90–0.97)) were protective factors against mortality.

Conclusions

This study highlights that certain modifiable factors related to physical or mental health contribute to increased survival in nursing homes. Because of its ability to improve physical performance and partly cognitive function, promoting physical activity in nursing homes appears to be a public health priority.

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Data availability

The datasets generated and analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

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This research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. WHO Collaborating Center for Epidemiologic Aspects of Musculo-Skeletal Health and Ageing, Division of Public Health, Epidemiology and Health Economics, University of Liège, Avenue Hippocrate 13, CHU Bât B23, 4000, Liège, Belgium

    Céline Demonceau, Fanny Buckinx, Jean-Yves Reginster & Olivier Bruyère

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  1. Céline Demonceau
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  2. Fanny Buckinx
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Correspondence to Céline Demonceau.

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This study has been approved by the Ethics Committee of the Teaching Hospital of the University of Liège (reference 2013/178) with an amendment related to this study in July 2022.

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Demonceau, C., Buckinx, F., Reginster, JY. et al. Assessment of risk factors associated with long-term mortality in nursing homes: result from the SENIOR cohort. Aging Clin Exp Res 35, 2997–3005 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40520-023-02579-5

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