Excess mortality in 2015: a time series and cause-of-death analysis in Northern Italy



To investigate the excess mortality registered in the Veneto Region (Northern Italy) in 2015.


A Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model was applied to predict overall mortality expected in 2014–2015 based on that observed in 2000–2013. The annual percent change in age-standardized rates (APC) was estimated for specific causes of death in 2007–2015.


Compared to 2014, the number of deaths and the overall age-standardized mortality increased in 2015 by 7.8 and 4.5%, respectively. When accounting for time trends, the observed mortality was lower than expected in 2014 (−4.5%) and slightly higher in 2015 (+1.1%). In 2015, mortality increased especially for causes with an already rising trend: neurologic/psychiatric (APC = 1.2; 95% Confidence Interval 0.3–2.0%) and infectious diseases (APC = 5.9; 3.6–8.2%).


Short-term changes and long-term trends in mortality must be interpreted within the frame of a rapid growth in the population of elderly subjects affected by multiple comorbidities.

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Correspondence to Ugo Fedeli.

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The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.

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All procedures performed were in accordance with the ethical standards of the institutional and/or national research committee and with the 1964 Helsinki declaration and its later amendments or comparable ethical standards.

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All analyses were carried out on routinely collected anonymous mortality records; therefore, informed consent was not applicable.

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Fedeli, U., Capodaglio, G., Schievano, E. et al. Excess mortality in 2015: a time series and cause-of-death analysis in Northern Italy. Aging Clin Exp Res 29, 1291–1294 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40520-017-0773-0

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  • Mortality
  • Causes of death
  • Time series