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Predicting the impact of climate change on habitat suitability and morphological traits of Begonia aborensis Dunn in Northeastern India: an endemic taxon of Indo-Myanmar hotspot

  • Ecology & Biogeography - Original Article
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Abstract

As climate change induces habitat shifts, bioclimatic variables are used in suitable habitat modeling to predict species migration. Begonia aborensis Dunn of sect. Sphenanthera (Hassk.) Warb. (Begoniaceae), a native species to Abor hills was categorized as ‘Rare’ in India. The study aimed to generate ecological niche modeling of B. aborensis, identify the influential bioclimatic factors, and trait analysis to detect the informative morphological traits of the species by ancestral reconstruction. Maxent version 3.3.3 was employed for ENM at 30 arc-second which showed an AUC value  < 1, and highly suitable habitats in parts of Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, and Nagaland. The annual precipitation, precipitation of the driest month, elevation, and annual mean temperature were found as the most influential bioclimatic predictors. The Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios of greenhouse gas emission for 2050 and 2070 showed suitability potential as 3.62% (119,327.65 km2) and 4.29% (141,023.58 km2) by RCP 2.6, 4.41% (144,968.3 km2) and 3.98% (130,833 km2) by RCP 4.5 and 4.1% (134,777.7 km2) and 3.53% (116,040.38 km2) by RCP 8.5 respectively, compared to decline from current range 3.70% (121,765.26 km2) in the long term. The ancestral reconstruction by Mesquite v.3.70 showed bioclimatic variables linked to character states such as denticulate leaf margin, and fleshy fruits without horns or wings as ecologically informative character states in B. aborensis and as an indicator of the distribution of the species in heavy rainfall regions.

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Data availability

All the data used in the study are available in the manuscript and the supplementary materials.

Abbreviations

CCAFS:

Climate change, agriculture and food security

CEM:

Climate envelope models

CGIARP:

Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research Program

GAM:

General additive modeling

GHG:

Green house gas

IPCC:

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

ISRO:

Indian Space Research Organisation

MM:

Mechanistic model

NER:

North-eastern region

NERIST:

The herbarium of North Eastern Regional Institute of Science and Technology, Arunachal Pradesh

RCP:

Representative concentration pathway

RGU:

The herbarium of Rajiv Gandhi University, Arunachal Pradesh

SAC:

Space Applications Centre

SD:

Standard deviation

SFRI:

The herbarium of State Forest Research Institute, Arunachal Pradesh

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Acknowledgements

The study was funded by the Council of Scientific and Industrial Research, Ministry of Science & Technology, Govt. of India, New Delhi under CSIR FBR project MLP0041. All the authors acknowledge the Academy of Scientific and Innovative Research (AcSIR), Ghaziabad-201002, India for providing a platform to carry out the work, Director, Botanical Survey of India, In-charge of Itanagar Circle, BSI, Arunachal Pradesh, In-charge of Eastern Circle, BSI, Shillong, Meghalaya, In-charge of Sikkim Himalayan Circle, BSI, Gangtok for permission to consult herbarium specimens and, Director, CSIR-NEIST for the all the logistics and support; and CSIR, Govt. of India, New Delhi for overall support.

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Author notes

  1. Authors Parthapratim Konwar and Bikas Das share equally for the first authorship.

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Agrotechnology and Rural Development Division, CSIR-North East Institute of Science and Technology, Jorhat, Assam, 785006, India

    Parthapratim Konwar, Bikas Das, Manoj Kumar & Dipanwita Banik

  2. Academy of Scientific and Innovative Research (AcSIR), Ghaziabad, 201002, India

    Parthapratim Konwar, Bikas Das, Manoj Kumar & Dipanwita Banik

Authors
  1. Parthapratim Konwar
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  2. Bikas Das
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  3. Manoj Kumar
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  4. Dipanwita Banik
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Contributions

PK did the modeling, collected most of the references, and initially drafted the manuscript for most of the sections. BD prepared the morphological matrix and did the ancestral character tracing, collected the references on taxonomy, ethnobotany and drafted the manuscript in part. MK collected the distributional data and converted the geo-references. DB conceptualized and designed the whole study, corrected the tables, drafted and edited the final manuscript.

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Correspondence to Dipanwita Banik.

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Konwar, P., Das, B., Kumar, M. et al. Predicting the impact of climate change on habitat suitability and morphological traits of Begonia aborensis Dunn in Northeastern India: an endemic taxon of Indo-Myanmar hotspot. Braz. J. Bot 46, 667–680 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40415-023-00895-8

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