Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Impact of rainfed and irrigated agriculture systems on soil carbon stock under different climate scenarios in the semi-arid region of Brazil

  • Research article
  • Published:
Journal of Arid Land Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Understanding the dynamics of soil organic carbon (SOC) is of fundamental importance in land use and management, whether in the current researches or in future scenarios of agriculture systems considering climate change. In order to evaluate SOC stock of the three districts (Delmiro Gouveia, Pariconha, and Inhapi districts) in the semi-arid region of Brazil in rainfed and irrigated agriculture systems under different climate scenarios using the Century model, we obtained RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios derived from the Eta Regional Climate Model (Eta-HadGEM2-ES and Eta-MIROC5) from the National Institute for Space Research, and then input the data of bulk density, pH, soil texture, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and rainfall into the soil and climate files of the Century model. The results of this study showed that the Eta-HadGEM2-ES model was effective in estimating air temperature in the future period. In rainfed agriculture system, SOC stock under the baseline scenario was lower than that under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, while in irrigated agriculture system, SOC stock in the almost all climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and models (Eta-HadGEM2-ES and Eta-MIROC5) will increase by 2100. The results of this study will help producers in the semi-arid region of Brazil adopt specific agriculture systems aimed at mitigating greenhouse gas emissions.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Aguilera E, Lassaletta L, Gattinger A, et al. 2013. Managing soil carbon for climate change mitigation and adaptation in Mediterranean cropping systems: A meta-analysis. Agriculturexxx Ecosystems and Environment, 168: 25–36.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Althoff T D, Menezes R S C, Carvalho A L, et al. 2016. Climate change impacts on the sustainability of the firewood harvest and vegetation and soil carbon stocks in a tropical dry forest in Santa Teresinha Municipality, Northeast Brazil. Forest Ecology and Management, 360: 367–375.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Althoff T D, Menezes R S C, Pinto A S, et al. 2018. Adaptation of the century model to simulate C and N dynamics of Caatinga dry forest before and after deforestation. Agriculturexxx Ecosystems and Environment, 254: 26–34.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Álvaro-Fuentes J, López M V, Arrúe J L, et al. 2009. Tillage and cropping effects on soil organic carbon in Mediterranean semiarid agroecosystems: Testing the Century model. Agriculturexxx Ecosystems and Environment, 134: 211–217.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Álvaro-Fuentes J, Paustian K. 2011. Potential soil carbon sequestration in a semiarid Mediterranean agroecosystem under climate change: Quantifying management and climate effects. Plant and Soil, 338: 261–272.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Araújo Neto R A. 2019. Use of the Century model in soil carbon dynamics in the semiarid region of Alagoas: future climate scenarios in irrigated and rainfed environments. PhD Dissertation. Rio Largo: Federal University of Alagoas, 1–113. (in Portuguese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Araújo Neto R A, Maia S M F, Althoff T D, et al. 2021. Simulation of soil carbon changes due to conventional systems in the semi-arid region of Brazil: adaptation and validation of the century model. Carbon Management, 12(4): 399–410.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bordin I, Neves C S V J, Medina C C, et al. 2008. Dry matter, carbon and nitrogen of soybean and maize roots in no-tillage and conventional tillage. Brazilian Agricultural Research, 43(12): 1785–1792. (in Portuguese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Bortolon E S O, Mielniczuk J, Tornquist C G, et al. 2011. Validation of the Century model to estimate the impact of agriculture on soil organic carbon in Southern Brazil. Geoderma, 167-168: 156–166.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bortolon E S O, Mielniczuk J, Tornquist C G, et al. 2012. Potential to use the century model and GIS to assess the impact of agriculture on regional soil organic carbon stocks. Brazilian Journal of Soil Science, 36(3): 831–850. (in Portuguese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Brandani C B, Abbruzzini T F, Williams S, et al. 2015. Simulation of management and soil interactions impacting SOC dynamics in sugarcane using the CENTURY model. Global Change Biology Bioenergy, 7(4): 646–657.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Carvalho A L, Menezes R S C, Nóbrega R S, et al. 2015. Impact of climate changes on potential sugarcane yield in Pernambuco, northeastern region of Brazil. Renewable Energy, 78: 26–34.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Carvalho A L, Santos D V, Marengo J A, et al. 2020. Impacts of extreme climate events on Brazilian agricultural production. Sustainability in Debate, 11(3): 197–210.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Castro C N. 2011. Transposition of the São Francisco River: project opportunity analysis. [2021-10-25]. https://www.ipea.gov.br/portal/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=9749. (in Portuguese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Castro C N. 2018. On irrigated agriculture in the semiarid region: a historical and current analysis of different policy options. [2021-10-25]. https://www.ipea.gov.br/portal/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=32607:td-2369-sobre-aagricultura-irrigada-no-semiarido-uma-analise-historica-e-atual-de-diferentes-opcoes-de-politica&catid=411:2018&directory=1. (in Portuguese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Cavalcanti E P, Silva V P R, Souza F A S. 2006. Computer program for the estimation of air temperature for the Northeast region of Brazil. Brazilian Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Engineering, 10(1): 140–147. (in Portuguese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Cerri C E P, Paustian K, Bernoux M, et al. 2004. Modeling changes in soil organic matter in Amazon forest to pasture conversion with the Century model. Global Change Biology, 10(5): 815–832.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chou S C, Lyra A, Mourão C, et al. 2014. Assessment of climate change over South America under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 downscaling scenarios. American Journal of Climate Change, 3(5): 512–527.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cidin A C M. 2016. Carbon stock in Brazilian soils and potential contribution to the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions. MSc Thesis. Araras: Federal University of São Carlos. (in Portuguese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Costa C A L. 2021. Semiarid Region of Paraíba: A Territorial Review. Areia: Federal University of Paraíba, 1–45. (in Portuguese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Barreto O W. 1997. Manual of Soil Analysis Methods. Rio de Janeiro: Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation. (in Portuguese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Barros H C B. 2012. Research and Development Bulletin (Climatology of the State of Alagoas). Recife: Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation. (in Portuguese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Ferreira J G. 2019. The transposition of the waters of the São Francisco River in the response to the drought in the Brazilian Northeast: Chronology of the transformation of the idea into a work. Latin American Journal of International Relations, 1(2): 53–72. (in Portuguese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Ghannoum O, Von Caemmerer S, Ziska L H, et al. 2000. The growth response of C4 plants to rising atmospheric CO2 partial pressure: a reassessment. Plant, Cell and Environment, 23: 931–942.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gois G, Souza J L, Silva P R T, et al. 2005. Characterization of desertification in the state of Alagoas using climatic variables. Brazilian Journal of Meteorology, 20(3): 301–314. (in Portuguese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Guareschi R F, Pereira M G. 2013. Carbon, light organic matter and oxidizable fractions of organic carbon under alley systems. Brazilian Forest Research, 33(74): 109–114. (in Portuguese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Hargreaves G H. 1974. Estimation of potential and crop evapotranspiration. Transactions of the ASAE, 17(4): 701–704.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hempel S, Frieler K, Warszawski L, et al. 2013. A trend-preserving bias correction-the ISI-MIP approach. Earth System Dynamics, 4(1): 219–236.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • IPCC. 2014. Mitigation of Climate Change. Working Group III Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In: Edenhofer O, Pichs-Madruga R, Sokona Y, et al. Cambridge and New York: Cambridge University Press, 151.

  • Keesstra S D, Bouma J, Wallinga J, et al. 2016. The significance of soils and soil science towards realization of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. Soil, 2(2): 111–128.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Keesstra S D, Mol G, De Leeuw J, et al. 2018. Soil-related Sustainable Development Goals: Four concepts to make land degradation neutrality and restoration work. Land, 7(4): 133, doi: https://doi.org/10.3390/land7040133.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Leakey A D B. 2009. Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and the future of C4 crops for food and fuel. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 276(1666): 2333–2343.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Leite L F C, Mendonça E S. 2003. Century model of soil organic matter dynamics: Equations and assumptions. Rural Science, 33(4): 679–686. (in Portuguese)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lima L G, Miranda A R, Lima E F S, et al. 2019. Pesticides in the semiarid region of Alagoas: chemical-dependent agriculture and its contradictions. Diversitas Journal, 4(3): 829–847. (in Portuguese)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Linacre E T. 1977. A simple formula for estimating evapotranspiration rates in various climates, using temperature data alone. Agricultural Meteorology, 18(6): 409–424.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Machado P L O A. 2005. Soil carbon and the mitigation of global climate change. New Chemistry, 28(2): 329–334. (in Portuguese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Marengo J A. 2014. Brazil's future climate. Journal of University of São Paulo, 103(1): 25–32. (in Portuguese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Marengo J A, Cunha A P M A, Alves L M. 2016. The 2012-2015 drought in the semiarid region of Northeast Brazil in the historical context. [2021-05-16]. https://http://climanalise.cptec.inpe.br/~rclimanl/revista/pdf/30anos/marengoetal.pdf. (in Portuguese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Meinshausen M, Smith S J, Calvin K, et al. 2011. The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300. Climatic Change, 109(1-2): 213–241.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ministry of National Integration. 2017a. Technical and scientific criteria for delimiting the Brazilian semiarid region and procedures for reviewing its scope. [2020-12-01]. https://www.in.gov.br/materia/-/asset_publisher/Kujrw0TZC2Mb/content/id/19287874/do1-2017-09-13-resolucao-n-107-de-27-de-julho-de-2017-19287788. (in Portuguese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Ministry of National Integration. 2017b. Deliberative Council of the Northeast Development Superintendence. [2020-12-01]. https://www.in.gov.br/materia/-/asset_publisher/Kujrw0TZC2Mb/content/id/739568/do1-2017-12-05-resolucao-n-115-de-23-de-novembro-de-2017-739564. (in Portuguese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Monteiro J M G, Angelotti F, Santos M M O. 2017. Adaptation and mitigation to climate change: contribution of soil ecosystem services. Newsletter of the Brazilian Soil Science Society, 43(2): 31–36. (in Portuguese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Moriasi D N, Arnold J G, Van Liew M W, et al. 2007. Model evaluation guidelines for systematic quantification of accuracy in watershed simulations. American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers, 50(3): 885–900.

    Google Scholar 

  • Moura M S B, Galvíncio J D, Brito L T L, et al. 2007. Climate and rainwater in the semiarid. In: Brito L T L, Moura M S B, Gama G F B. Rainwater Potential in the Brazilian Semiarid Region. Petrolina: Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation, 37–59. (in Portuguese)

    Google Scholar 

  • National Water Agency. 2017. Atlas Irrigation: Water Use in Irrigated Agriculture. Brasília: National Water Agency, 85. (in Portuguese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Novara A, Sarno M, Pereira P, et al. 2018. Straw uses trade-off only after soil organic carbon steady-state. Italian Journal of Agronomy, 13(3): 216–220.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Novara A, Pulido M, Rodrigo-Comino J, et al. 2019. Long-term organic farming on a citrus plantation results in soil organic carbon recovery. Cuadernos de Investigación Geográfica, 45(1): 271–286.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Parton W J, Scurlock J M O, Ojima D S, et al. 1993. Observations and modeling of biomass and soil organic matter dynamics for the grassland biome worldwide. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 7(4): 785–809.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pivetta M. 2019. Land Use and Climate Change. [2020-09-01]. https://revistapesquisa.fapesp.br/o-uso-do-solo-e-as-mudancasclimaticas. (in Portuguese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Rossato L, Alvalá R C S, Marengo J A, et al. 2017. Impact of soil moisture on crop yields over Brazilian semiarid. Frontiers in Environmental Science, 5: 73, doi: https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2017.00073.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sales R P, Portugal A F, Moreira J A A, et al. 2016. Physical quality of a Latosol under no-tillage and conventional tillage in the semi-arid region. Revista Ciência Agronômica, 47(3): 429–438. (in Portuguese)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Silva-Olaya A M, Cerri C E P, Williams S, et al. 2017. Modelling SOC response to land use change and management practices in sugarcane cultivation in South-Central Brazil. Plant and Soil, 410(1-2): 483–498.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Smith P, Smith J U, Powlson D S, et al. 1997. A comparison of the performance of nine soil organic matter models using datasets from seven long-term experiments. Geoderma, 81(1-2): 153–225.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Smith P, Adams J, Beerling D J, et al. 2019. Impacts of land-based greenhouse gas removal options on ecosystem services and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 44(4): 12–54.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sobocká J, Balkovic J, Lapin M. 2007. A Century 5 model using for estimation of soil organic matter behaviour at predicted climate change. Soil and Water Research, 2(1): 25–34.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tavares V C, Arruda I R P, Silva D G. 2019. Desertification, climate change and droughts in the Brazilian semiarid region: a literature review. Geosul, 34(70): 385–405. (in Portuguese)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Visser S, Keesstra S, Maas G, et al. 2019. Soil as a basis to create enabling conditions for transitions towards sustainable land management as a key to achieve the SDGs by 2030. Sustainability, 11(23): 6792, doi: https://doi.org/10.3390/su11236792.

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

This study was supported by the the National Council for Scientific and Technological Development of Brazil and Ministry of Science, Technology, Innovation (MCTI) of Brazil (383697/2015-8). We are grateful for the Federal University of Pernambuco and the University of So Paulo. We also thank the Brazilian Research Network on Global Climate Change (Rede Clima), which provided the scholarship to Renato Américo ARAÚJO-NETO.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Center for Agrarian Sciences, Federal University of Alagoas, Rio Largo, 57072-900, Brazil

    André L Carvalho, Renato A Araújo-Neto & Guilherme B Lyra

  2. Luiz de Queiroz College of Agriculture, The University of São Paulo, Piracicaba, 13418-900, Brazil

    Carlos E P Cerri

  3. Federal Institute of Alagoas, Marechal Deodoro, 57160-000, Brazil

    Stoécio M F Maia

Authors
  1. André L Carvalho
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Renato A Araújo-Neto
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Guilherme B Lyra
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Carlos E P Cerri
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Stoécio M F Maia
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to André L Carvalho.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Carvalho, A.L., Araújo-Neto, R.A., Lyra, G.B. et al. Impact of rainfed and irrigated agriculture systems on soil carbon stock under different climate scenarios in the semi-arid region of Brazil. J. Arid Land 14, 359–373 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40333-022-0092-y

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Revised:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40333-022-0092-y

Keywords

Search

Navigation