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Mapping the current and future distributions of Onosma species endemic to Iran

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Abstract

Climate change may cause shifts in the natural range of species especially for those that are geographically restricted and/or endemic species. In this study, the spatial distribution of five endemic and threatened species belonging to the genus Onosma (including O. asperrima, O. bisotunensis, O. kotschyi, O. platyphylla, and O. straussii) was investigated under present and future climate change scenarios: RCP2.6 (RCP, representative concentration pathway; optimistic scenario) and RCP8.5 (pessimistic scenario) for the years 2050 and 2080 in Iran. Analysis was conducted using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model to provide a basis for the protection and conservation of these species. Seven environmental variables including aspect, depth of soil, silt content, slope, annual precipitation, minimum temperature of the coldest month, and annual temperature range were used as main predictors in this study. The model output for the potential habitat suitability of the studied species showed acceptable performance for all species (i.e., the area under the curve (AUC)>0.800). According to the models generated by MaxEnt, the potential current patterns of the species were consistent with the observed areas of distributions. The projected climate maps under optimistic and pessimistic scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively) of 2050 and 2080 resulted in reductions and expansions as well as positive range changes for all species in comparison to their current predicted distributions. Among all species, O. bisotunensis showed the most significant and highest increase under the pessimistic scenario of 2050 and 2080. Finally, the results of this study revealed that the studied plant species have shown an acute adaptability to environmental changes. The results can provide useful information to managers to apply appropriate strategies for the management and conservation of these valuable Iranian medicinal and threatened plant species in the future.

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Acknowledgements

Our special thanks are given to Dr. Roozbeh VALAVI for his considerable support in the modeling section, Ms. Sadaf SAYADI for her assistance in collecting of data and running of models, and two anonymous reviewers for their many helpful comments. We also thank Mrs. Andrea GHANNADIAN for editing this article.

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  1. Department of Plant Sciences and Biotechnology, Faculty of Life Sciences and Biotechnology, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, 1983969411, Iran

    Farzaneh Khajoei Nasab & Ahmadreza Mehrabian

  2. Department of Biodiversity and Ecosystems Management, Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, 1983969411, Iran

    Hossein Mostafavi

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  1. Farzaneh Khajoei Nasab
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Correspondence to Ahmadreza Mehrabian.

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Khajoei Nasab, F., Mehrabian, A. & Mostafavi, H. Mapping the current and future distributions of Onosma species endemic to Iran. J. Arid Land 12, 1031–1045 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40333-020-0080-z

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