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Table 4 Historical analysis: comparison of annual incidence (per 100,000) between observed data and predicted results for a PCV10 switch or continuing PCV13, 2016–2018

From: Validation of a Novel Forecasting Method for Estimating the Impact of Switching Pneumococcal Conjugate Programs: Evidence from Belgium

Parameter 2015 (observed) 2016 2017 2018
Ages 0–15 years
 All serotypes
  Observed 9.77 8.69 10.77 13.53
  Scenario 1 (PCV10) 9.77 9.42 9.81 10.21
  Scenario 2 (PCV13) 9.77 9.46 9.56 9.73
 Serotype 19A
  Observed 0.23 0.17 1.06 2.74
  Scenario 1 (PCV10) 0.23 0.31 0.40 0.56
  Scenario 2 (PCV13) 0.23 0.19 0.16 0.14
Ages < 2 years
 Overall IPD
  Observed 45.41 42.75 54.61 61.77
  Scenario 1 (PCV10) 45.41 47.01 49.63 52.25
  Scenario 2 (PCV13) 45.41 46.53 48.79 51.20
 Serotype 19A
  Observed 1.02 1.02 7.57 16.77
  Scenario 1 (PCV10) 1.02 1.37 1.71 2.06
  Scenario 2 (PCV13) 1.02 0.75 0.58 0.46
Ages 2–4 years
 All serotypes
  Observed 11.45 9.64 15.45 13.27
  Scenario 1 (PCV10) 11.45 8.74 8.69 8.69
  Scenario 2 (PCV13) 11.45 8.50 8.31 8.27
 Serotype 19A
  Observed 0.18 0.00 0.73 3.64
  Scenario 1 (PCV10) 0.18 0.25 0.29 0.31
  Scenario 2 (PCV13) 0.18 < 0.01 < 0.01 < 0.01
Ages 5–15 years
 All serotypes
  Observed 2.86 2.42 1.94 5.44
  Scenario 1 (PCV10) 2.86 2.65 2.58 2.58
  Scenario 2 (PCV13) 2.86 2.58 2.49 2.50
 Serotype 19A
  Observed 0.10 0.06 0.03 0.13
  Scenario 1 (PCV10) 0.10 0.09 0.09 0.09
  Scenario 2 (PCV13) 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.08
  1. Scenario 1 represents the modeled incidence for the switch to PCV10 in 2015. Scenario 2 represents the modeled incidence for a hypothetical scenario in which Belgium did not switch to PCV10 in 2015. Observed incidence was based on data from Desmet et al. [2]. Projected PCV10 estimates were based on model projections from 2016 to 2018, assuming trendline equations based on Finland data. Projected PCV13 estimates were based on model projections from 2016 to 2018, assuming trendline equations based on UK data. Trendline equations can be seen in Supplemental Table 1
  2. IPD invasive pneumococcal disease, PCV10 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine, PCV13 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine