Editorial Notes

Dear Reader,

I frequently check in with the smart people at Tech Insights (formerly known as Strategy Analytics) to get insights into the stories I'm working on. I recently compared notes with Mark Fitzgerald, director, autonomous vehicle service at Tech Insights, on the lidar market and the lidar supplier, Luminar, which I wrote about in this issue.

"At 1000 US dollars each, the price to carmakers, lidar is absurdly expensive," Fitzgerald declared. "In the near term, lidar will be limited to L2+ vehicles and above, primarily luxury vehicles. It will not soon migrate to mid- and low-segment vehicles." His forecast sees lidar shipments growing quickly, from 395.000 units in 2022 to 18 million units in 2030, a 61.2 % CAGR. Still, compared with 400 million or so cameras sold each year, lidar's sales numbers are small.

"The high cost of lidar will, in theory, be offset by subscription fees paid by the consumer for ADAS safety features and for highway autonomy. But the OEMs will have to pay big bucks for lidar upfront with the expectation that enough subscribers will sign on to pay the bill. That's a big gamble," Fitzgerald observed.

Best,

Paul Hansen

Editor

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