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Forecasting enteric methane emission using autoregressive integrated moving average and Holt–Winters time series models in South Asian countries

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Abstract

Global warming, a worldwide issue, threatens the planet. The main reason for its increase is the surge in human activities such as the establishment of industrial facilities, as well as the establishment of livestock farms, which cause an increase in the emission of greenhouse gases that have the ability to trap the energy reflected from the earth's surface in the atmospheric layer. The main objective of this study was to predict enteric methane emissions in South Asian countries (Pakistan, Afghanistan, India, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal, and Sri Lanka). Historical data for methane emissions from 1971 to 2019 available on Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) database were collected, and nine autoregressive integrated moving averages and one Holt–Winters models were applied using R-Studio. Results showed that methane emissions from enteric fermentation by livestock in Pakistan and India will pose a significant risk on climate and global warming. Moreover, in the future, the enteric methane emission in Bangladesh, Afghanistan and Nepal is increasing annually. In contrast, the least amount of methane emissions from enteric fermentation in the future will be from Sri Lanka and Bhutan. This study concluded that enteric methane emission is increasing in South Asian countries annually and the majority of these emissions will be from Pakistan and India; thus, latest interventions should be applied to reduce methane emission from dairy industry. Moreover, region-specific policies should be devised and implemented to cope up this serious issue.

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank Dr. Muhammad Younas (Ex-Dean, Faculty of Animal Husbandry-UAF) for his valuable suggestions during the review process.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Animal and Dairy Sciences, Faculty of Animal Husbandry, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, Pakistan

    W. Dayoub, S. Ahmad & M. Riaz

  2. Center for Advanced Studies, Agriculture and Food Security, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, Pakistan

    S. Ahmad & K. Hussain

  3. Department of Parasitology, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, Pakistan

    M. S. Sajid

  4. Department of Animal Breeding and Genetics, Faculty of Veterinary and Animal Sciences, PMAS-Arid Agriculture University, Rawalpindi, Pakistan

    G. Bilal

  5. Department of Agronomy, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, Pakistan

    K. Hussain

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  1. W. Dayoub
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  2. S. Ahmad
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  3. M. Riaz
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  4. M. S. Sajid
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  5. G. Bilal
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  6. K. Hussain
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Correspondence to S. Ahmad.

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Editorial responsibility: J. Chen.

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Dayoub, W., Ahmad, S., Riaz, M. et al. Forecasting enteric methane emission using autoregressive integrated moving average and Holt–Winters time series models in South Asian countries. Int. J. Environ. Sci. Technol. 21, 4837–4846 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13762-023-05320-x

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13762-023-05320-x

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