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Designing long-term scenarios for Iranian electricity sector: a novel integrated scenario planning approach based on MCDM method

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Abstract

Today, the importance of the electricity industry as a major industry and its vital role in launching and exploiting other industries cannot be ignored. Therefore, long-term planning and forecasting are needed for its development. Therefore, in this study, a novel integrated scenario planning (SP) approach based on the multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) method called I-MCDM-SP was presented. The proposed approach was applied in a case study to design scenarios for the Iranian electricity industry. In order to design the scenarios, different modes were considered for the two sectors of electricity generation and consumption. In this research, a SP method based on the cross-impact analysis and visualization methods was proposed, in which in order to design scenarios, key drivers (most important trends) should first be determined. Therefore, in this study, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) model was used to select the most important trends. The results showed that for increasing, constant and decreasing modes of electricity consumption, "failure to correct the price of energy carriers," "laying down rules and regulations," and "improving the culture of energy consumption" with the weights of 0.337, 0.434, and 0.314 were selected as the best trends, respectively. To validate the proposed model, the AHP model was also compared with BWM and SWARA methods, which the results showed the accuracy of this model. Using this approach, four scenarios were designed that improvement and energy management scenarios were the most likely scenarios and sustainable development was the most optimistic scenario.

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Acknowledgements

The authors thank Tavanir Company and Iran Ministry of Energy for provision of data and other relevant information.

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  1. Department of Industrial Engineering, University of Science and Technology of Mazandaran, Behshahr, Iran

    M. Khademi & M. Rezaei

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  1. M. Khademi
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Correspondence to M. Rezaei.

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Editorial responsibility: Dai-Viet N. Vo.

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Khademi, M., Rezaei, M. Designing long-term scenarios for Iranian electricity sector: a novel integrated scenario planning approach based on MCDM method. Int. J. Environ. Sci. Technol. 19, 9703–9718 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13762-022-04168-x

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13762-022-04168-x

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