Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Climate change projection using the statistical downscaling model in Modjo watershed, upper Awash River Basin, Ethiopia

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Global circulation models have been used to project future climate changes, which encourage experts to design mitigation measures. Still, it is challenging to use the raw data at a local scale without downscaling. Hence, this study applied a statistical downscaling model to downscale daily data generated from the second generation of the Canadian Earth System Model under two Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) using observed data for model calibration and validation. The downscaled results showed that the maximum temperature likely to increases in the range of 2.04–2.50 °C for RCP4.5 in the 2050s (2041–2070) and 2080s (2071–2099), respectively, and the minimum temperature indicate an increase by 0.87 °C in 2050s and 1.56 °C in 2080s averaged over the watershed level. The projected mean annual and seasonal air temperatures are likely to increase up to the end of the twenty-first century at all stations. The utmost annual rainfall change is projected to be 14.5% in the 2080s for RCP4.5 at Modjo. The highest seasonal precipitation change is projected to be 30.9% (RCP8.5) in the main rainy season (Kiremt) at Chefedonsa. Seasonal-based future projection of the precipitation shows non-significant trends, except the Kiremt season. The study revealed that the temperature was highly influenced by altitude and slightly affected by corresponding land use land cover type. In general, the increase in temperature could worsen the environmental conditions in warm seasons; and an increase in precipitation in the Kiremt season is expected to bring a likely risk of flooding.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5

Similar content being viewed by others

Data availability

The data that support the findings of this study are openly available, except observed data collected from Ethiopian National Meteorology Service Agency. The authors have no authority to openly distribute those observed data.

Code availability

Not applicable.

References

  • Abbasnia M, Toros H (2016) Future changes in maximum temperature using the statistical downscaling model (SDSM) at selected stations of Iran. Model Earth Syst Environ. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-016-0112-z

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Abebe E, Kebede A (2017) Assessment of climate change impacts on the water resources of megech river catchment, Abbay Basin Ethiopia. Open J Modern Hydrol 07(02):141–152

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Aik DHJ, Ismail MH, Muharam FM, Alias MA (2021) Evaluating the impacts of land use/land cover changes across topography against land surface temperature in Cameron Highlands. PLoS ONE 16(5):1–26

    Google Scholar 

  • Akhtar M, Ahmad N, Booij MJ (2009) Use of regional climate model simulations as input for hydrological models for the Hindukush-Karakorum-Himalaya region. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 13(7):1075–1089

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Alemayehu A, Maru M, Bewket W, Assen M (2020) Spatiotemporal variability and trends in rainfall and temperature in Alwero watershed, western Ethiopia. Environ Syst Res 9(22):15

    Google Scholar 

  • Alemu ZA, Dioha MO (2020) Climate change and trend analysis of temperature: the case of Addis Ababa Ethiopia. Environ Syst Res. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40068-020-00190-5

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Al-Mukhtar M, Qasim M (2019) Future predictions of precipitation and temperature in Iraq using the statistical downscaling model. Arab J Geosci. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-018-4187-x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Amirabadizadeh M, Ghazali AH, Huang YF, Wayayok A (2016) Downscaling daily precipitation and temperatures over the Langat River Basin in Malaysia : a comparison of two statistical downscaling approaches. Int J Water Resour Environ Eng 8(December):120–136

    Google Scholar 

  • Asfaw A, Simane B, Hassen A, Bantider A (2018) Variability and time series trend analysis of rainfall and temperature in northcentral Ethiopia: a case study in Woleka sub-basin. Weather Clim Extremes 19:29–41

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Auffhammer M, Hsiang S (2011) Global climate models and climate data: a user guide for economists. Unpublished …, 64640, 1–27

  • Ayele HS, Li MH, Tung CP, Liu TM (2016) Impact of climate change on runoff in the Gilgel Abbay Watershed, the upper Blue Nile Basin Ethiopia. Water 8(380):16

    Google Scholar 

  • Baede APM, Ahlonsou E, Ding Y, Schimel D (2001) The climate system: an Overview. In: Houghton JT, Ding Y, Griggs DJ, Noguer M, van der Linden PJ, Dai X, Maskell K, Johnson CA (eds) Climate change 2001: the scientific basis. contribution of working group I to the third assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, p. 881

    Google Scholar 

  • Bates BC, ZW Kundzewicz, S Wu, JP Palutikof (2008) Climate change and water - IPCC technical paper VI. Clim Change water, VI (978–92–9169–123–4), 210.

  • Bekele D, Alamirew T, Kebede A, Zeleke G, Melese AM (2017) Analysis of rainfall trend and variability for agricultural water management in awash river Basin, Ethiopia. J Water Clim Change 8(1):127–141

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Calow R, Bonsor H, Jones L, Meally SO, Macdonald A, Kaur N (2011) Climate change, water resources and WASH: a scoping study. In: Working paper 337 overseas development institute 111 westminster bridge road London SE1 7JD

  • Cannistra T (2016) Challenges, solutions, and future directions for statistical and dynamical downscaling of global climate models 587

  • Costanza R, de Groot R, Sutton P, van der Ploeg S, Anderson SJ, Kubiszewski I, Farber S, Turner RK (2014) Changes in the global value of ecosystem services. Glob Environ Change 26(1):152–158

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dibike YB, Coulibaly P (2005) Hydrologic impact of climate change in the Saguenay watershed: comparison of downscaling methods and hydrologic models. J Hydrol. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2004.10.012

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Eden JM, Widmann M, Grawe D, Rast S (2012) Skill, correction, and downscaling of GCM-simulated precipitation. J Clim 25(11):3970–3984

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Eshetu M (2020) Hydro-climatic variability and trend analysis of Modjo river watershed, Awash River Basin of Ethiopia. Hydrol Curr Res 11(2):1–8

    Google Scholar 

  • European Union (2018) Our planet, our future

  • FAO (2011) Climate change, water and food security. In: FAO water reports 36

  • FAO (2018) Climate-smart agriculture training manual−a reference manual for agricultural extension agents. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome

    Google Scholar 

  • Feyissa G, Zeleke G, Bewket W, Gebremariam E (2018) Downscaling of future temperature and precipitation extremes in Addis Ababa under climate change. Climate 6(3):58

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gebrechorkos SH, Hülsmann S, Bernhofer C (2019) Regional climate projections for impact assessment studies in East Africa. Environ Res Lett 14(4):14

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gebrehiwot T, Veen AVD (2013) Assessing the evidence of climate variability in the northern part of Ethiopia. J Dev Agric Econ 5(3):104–119

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gebremeskel G, Kebede A (2018) Estimating the effect of climate change on water resources: integrated use of climate and hydrological models in the Werii watershed of the Tekeze river basin Northern Ethiopia. Agric Nat Res 52(2):195–207

    Google Scholar 

  • Gedefaw M, Wang H, Yan D, Song X, Yan D, Dong G, Wang J, Girma A, Ali BA, Batsuren D, Abiyu A, Qin T (2018) Trend analysis of climatic and hydrological variables in the Awash river basin, Ethiopia. Water 10(11):1–14

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gedefaw M, Yan D, Wang H, Qin T, Wang K (2019) Analysis of the recent trends of two climate parameters over two eco-regions of Ethiopia. Water 11(161):12

    Google Scholar 

  • Gemechu T, Wakbulcho G, Rao GN, Adamu T, Box PO, Minch A, Engineering WR, Minch A, Minch A (2015) The current and future trend of rainfall and its variability in Adami-Tulu Jido-Kombolcha Woreda, Central Rift Valley of. J Environ Earth Sci 5(22):40–49

    Google Scholar 

  • Gessesse B, Bewket W, Bräuning A (2015) Model-based characterization and monitoring of runoff and soil erosion in response to land use/land cover changes in the Modjo watershed, Ethiopia. Land Degrad Dev 26(7):711–724

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gurara MA, Jilo NB, Tolche AD (2021) Modeling climate change impact on the streamflow in the upper wabe bridge watershed in wabe shebele river basin Ethiopia. Int J River Basin Manag. https://doi.org/10.1080/15715124.2021.1935978

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gurara MA, Jilo NB, Tolche AD (2021b) Impact of climate change on potential evapotranspiration and crop water requirement in Upper Wabe Bridge watershed, Wabe Shebele River basin, Ethiopia. J Afr Earth Sci 180:1–46

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hay LE, Clark MP (2003) Use of statistically and dynamically downscaled atmospheric model output for hydrologic simulations in three mountainous basins in the western United States. J Hydrol 282(1–4):56–75

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hewitson BC, Crane RG (1996) Climate downscaling: techniques and application. Clim Res 7(2):85–95

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jilo NB, Gebremariam B, Harka AE, Woldemariam GW, Behulu F (2019) Evaluation of the impacts of climate change on sediment yield from the Logiya watershed, Lower Awash Basin Ethiopia. Hydrology 6(3):81

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kabat P, Schulze RE, Hellmuth ME, Veraart J (2002) Coping with impacts of climate variability and climate change in water management: a scoping paper. Hydro Delft 92:12

    Google Scholar 

  • Kalnay E, Collins W, Deaven D, Gandin L, Iredell M, Jenne R, Joseph D (1996) The NCEP_NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 77(3):437–472

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kassie BT (2014) Climate variability and change in Ethiopia: exploring impacts and adaptation options for cereal production. In: PhD thesis, Wageningen University, Wageningen, NL

    Google Scholar 

  • Kassie BT, Rötter RP, Hengsdijk H, Asseng S, Van Ittersum MK, Kahiluoto H, Van Keulen H (2014) Climate variability and change in the central rift valley of Ethiopia: challenges for rainfed crop production. J Agric Sci 152(1):58–74

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kebede A, Diekkrüger B, Moges SA (2013) An Assessment of temperature and precipitation change projections using a regional and a global climate model for the Baro-Akobo basin. Earth Sci Clim Change 4(1):1–12

    Google Scholar 

  • Liu J, Chen S, Li L, Li J (2017) Statistical downscaling and projection of future air temperature changes in Yunnan Province, China. Adv Meteorol 2017:1–11

    Google Scholar 

  • Lu Y, Jiang S, Ren L, Zhang L, Wang M, Liu R, Wei L (2019) Spatial and temporal variability in precipitation concentration over Mainland China, 1961–2017. Water 11(881):16

    Google Scholar 

  • Mahmood R, Babel MS (2014) Future changes in extreme temperature events using the statistical downscaling model (SDSM) in the trans-boundary region of the Jhelum river basin. Weather Clim Extrem 5(1):56–66

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McSweeney C, New M, Lizcano G, Lu X (2010) The UNDP climate change country profiles. Bull Am Meteor Soc 91(2):157–166

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mearns LO, Hulme M (2001) Climate Scenario Development. Climate Change 2001: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group i to the third assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on Climate Change pp 739–768

  • Mearns LO, Giorgi F, Whetton P, Pabon D, Hulme M, Lal M (2003) Guidelines for use of climate scenarios developed from regional climate model experiments. In: IPCC task group on scenarios for climate impact assessment (TGCIA). Retrieved from the data distribution centre of the intergovernmental panel on climate change

  • Mekasha A, Tesfaye K, Duncan AJ (2014) Trends in daily observed temperature and precipitation extremes over three Ethiopian eco-environments. Int J Climatol 34(6):1990–1999

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mekonen AA, Berlie AB (2020) Spatiotemporal variability and trends of rainfall and temperature in the Northeastern highlands of Ethiopia. Model Earth Syst Environ 6(1):285–300

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mekonnen D, Disse M (2018) Analyzing the future climate change of Upper Blue Nile River basin using statistical downscaling techniques. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 22(4):2391–2408

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mengistu D, Bewket W, Lal R (2014) Recent spatiotemporal temperature and rainfall variability and trends over the Upper Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia. Int J Climatol 34(7):2278–2292

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Merryfield WJ, Lee WS, Boer GJ, Kharin VV, Scinocca JF, Flato GM, Ajayamohan RS, Fyfe JC, Tang Y, Polavarapu S (2013) The canadian seasonal to interannual prediction system. part I: models and initialization. Monthly Weather Rev 141(8):2910–2945

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Meseret Z, Belay S (2019) Spatial and temporal variability in temperature and rainfall over Mecha area, Ethiopia. Int J Sci Res Multidiscip Stud 5(12):56–65

    Google Scholar 

  • Montt P, Oscillation S, Commission NE, Environmental N (2013) Water and climate change adaptation. Water Intell Online 12:2012–2014

    Google Scholar 

  • Nandozi CS, Majaliwa JGM, Omondi P, Komutunga E, Aribo L, Isubikalu P, Tenywa M, Massa-Makuma H (2012) Regional climate model performance and prediction of seasonal rainfall and surface temperature of Uganda. Afr Crop Sci J 20(2):213–225

    Google Scholar 

  • Osman YZ, Abdellatif ME (2016) Improving accuracy of downscaling rainfall by combining predictions of different statistical downscale models. Water Sci 30(2):61–75

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Phoung DN, Doung T, Liem N, Tram VN, Cuong D, Loi N (2020) Projections of future climate change in the Vu Gia. Water 12(755):1–17

    Google Scholar 

  • Rao PVVP, Legesse SA (2013) Trend analysis and adaptation strategies of climate change ion North Central Ethiopia. Int J Agric Sci Res (IJASR) 3(1):253–262

    Google Scholar 

  • Robinson LN (2008) Water resources research progress. Water resources research progress pp 1–433

  • Sayad TA, Ali AM, Kamel AM (2016) Study the impact of climate change on maximum and minimum temperature over Alexandria, Egypt using statistical downscaling model (Sdsm). Glob J Adv Res 3(8):694–712

    Google Scholar 

  • Schoof JT, Pryor SC (2003) Evaluation of the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis in terms of synoptic-scale phenomena: a case study from the Midwestern USA. Int J Climatol 23(14):1725–1741

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Semiromi ST, Moradi HR, Moghaddam DD, Khodagholi M (2014) Future climate conditions and trend analysis of precipitation and temperature in Bar Watershed Iran. J Sci Res Rep 3(15):2037–2054

    Google Scholar 

  • Setturu B, Rajan K, Ramachandra T (2013) Land surface temperature responses to land use land cover dynamics. Geoinform & Geostat Overv Res 1(4):1–10

    Google Scholar 

  • Shitu K, Tesfaw M (2021) Downscaling future temperature and precipitation values in Kombolcha Town, South Wollo in Ethiopia. J Environ Hazards 5(4):8

    Google Scholar 

  • Smid M, Costa AC (2018) Climate projections and downscaling techniques: a discussion for impact studies in urban systems. Int J Urban Sci 22(3):277–307

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sonali P, Nagesh Kumar D (2013) Review of trend detection methods and their application to detect temperature changes in India. J Hydrol 476:212–227

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sun F, Walton DB, Hall A (2015) A hybrid dynamical-statistical downscaling technique. Part II: end-of-century warming projections predict a new climate state in the Los Angeles region. J Clim 28(12):4618–4636

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tadese M, Kumar L, Koech R (2020) Long-term variability in potential evapotranspiration, water availability and drought under climate change scenarios in the Awash River basin Ethiopia. Atmosphere 11(9):883

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Taylor KE, Stouffer RJ, Meehl GA (2012) An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull Am Meteor Soc 93(4):485–498

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tesfaye S, Taye G, Birhane E, van der Zee SE (2019) Observed and model simulated twenty-first century hydro-climatic change of Northern Ethiopia. J Hydrol Reg Stud 22(March):100595

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tessema SM (2011) Hydrological modeling as a tool for sustainable water resources management: a case study of the Awash River Basin. Trita-LWR. LIC NV - 2056

  • Trzaska S, Schnarr E (2014) A review of downscaling methods for climate change projections. United States Agency for International Development by Tetra Tech ARD, (September), 1–42.

  • UNEP, 2017. Climate Change Adaptation Technologies for Water.

  • UNFCCC (2007) Climate change: impacts. Vulnerabilities Adapt Dev Ctries 5:337–353

    Google Scholar 

  • Wagesho N, Goel NK, Jain MK (2013) Temporal and spatial variability of annual and seasonal rainfall over Ethiopia. Hydrol Sci J–J des Sci Hydrol 2(02626667):58

    Google Scholar 

  • Wei W, Wang B, Zhang K, Shi Z, Ge G, Yang X (2018) Temporal trends and spatial patterns of temperature and its extremes over the Beijing-Tianjin Sand Source Region (1960–2014). China Hindawi Adv Meteorol 10(5473105):26

    Google Scholar 

  • Wilby RL, Dawson CW (2007) SDSM 4.2— A decision support tool for th e assessment of regional climate change impacts, user manual. Department of geography, Lancaster University, UK, (August) pp 1–94

  • Wilby RL, Wigley TML, Conway D, Jones PD, Hewitson BC, Main J, Wilks DS (1998) Statistical downscaling of general circulation model output: a comparison of methods. Water Resour Res 34(11):2995–3008

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wilby RL, Charles SP, Zorita E, Timbal B, Whetton P, Mearns LO (2004) Guidelines for use of climate scenarios developed from statistical downscaling methods. Analysis.

  • Xue Y, Janjic Z, Dudhia J, Vasic R, De Sales F (2014) A review on regional dynamical downscaling in intraseasonal to seasonal simulation/prediction and major factors that affect downscaling ability. Atmos Res 147–148:68–85

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yadeta D, Kebede A, Tessema N (2020) Potential evapotranspiration models evaluation, modelling, and projection under climate scenarios, Kesem sub-basin, Awash River basin Ethiopia. Model Earth Syst Environ 6(4):2165–2176

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

The authors gratefully thank secondary data provider Ethiopian National Meteorology Service Agency (NMSA) for providing meteorological data.

Funding

This research did not receive any specific grant from any funding agencies.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Water Resources and Irrigation Engineering, Haramaya Institute of Technology (HiT), Haramaya University, Dire Dawa, Ethiopia

    M. A. Gurara

  2. Department of Hydraulic and Water Resources Engineering, Haramaya Institute of Technology (HiT), Haramaya University, Dire Dawa, Ethiopia

    N. B. Jilo & A. K. Kassa

  3. School of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering, Haramaya Institute of Technology (HiT), Haramaya University, Dire Dawa, Ethiopia

    A. D. Tolche

Authors
  1. M. A. Gurara
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. N. B. Jilo
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. A. D. Tolche
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. A. K. Kassa
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to M. A. Gurara.

Ethics declarations

Conflict of interest

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Additional information

Editorial responsibility: S. R. Sabbagh-Yazdi.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Gurara, M.A., Jilo, N.B., Tolche, A.D. et al. Climate change projection using the statistical downscaling model in Modjo watershed, upper Awash River Basin, Ethiopia. Int. J. Environ. Sci. Technol. 19, 8885–8898 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13762-021-03752-x

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Revised:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13762-021-03752-x

Keywords

Search

Navigation