Analysis of wind energy potential and Weibull parameter estimation methods: a case study from Turkey

Abstract

A detailed investigation of the wind characteristics is an indispensable process for the wind energy potential for installing of wind power plants. Choosing the wind speed distribution that provides the better fit to the data is of great advantages. The present study investigates the appropriateness of four different numerical methods for forecasting the Weibull distribution parameters using wind speed information from İzmir‒Turkey. To determine the robustness of the methods, the root-mean-square error, the coefficient of determination, and the Chi-square goodness-of-fit tests have been used. In addition, an economic analysis to represent probability of installing wind turbines ranging between 800 and 4200 kW in site has been also done. The results demonstrate that the standard deviation–mean wind speed method is the most appropriate. Moreover, the estimated cost of electricity from wind was calculated as US$0.0111/kWh.

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Acknowledgements

The authors wish to thank all who assisted in conducting this work.

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Correspondence to A. Gungor.

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The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.

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Editorial responsibility: M. Abbaspour.

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Gungor, A., Gokcek, M., Uçar, H. et al. Analysis of wind energy potential and Weibull parameter estimation methods: a case study from Turkey. Int. J. Environ. Sci. Technol. 17, 1011–1020 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13762-019-02566-2

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Keywords

  • Energy cost
  • Statistical analysis
  • Standard deviation–mean speed method
  • Weibull parameters
  • Wind energy