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Improvement of multiple linear regression method for statistical downscaling of monthly precipitation

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Abstract

This article aims at proposing an improved statistical model for statistical downscaling of monthly precipitation using multiple linear regression (MLR). The proposed model, namely Monthly Statistical DownScaling Model (MSDSM), has been developed based on the general structure of Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM). In order to improve the performance of the model, some statistical modifications have been incorporated including bias correction using variance correction factor (VCF) to improve the computed variance pattern. We illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed model through its application to 288 rain gauge stations scattered in different climatic zones of Iran. Comparison between the results of SDSM and the proposed MSDSM has indicated superiority of the proposed model in reproducing long-term mean and variance of monthly precipitation. We found that the weakness of MLR method in estimating variance has been considerably improved by applying VCF. We showed that the proposed model provides a promising alternative for statistical downscaling of precipitation at monthly time scale. An investigation of the effects of climate change in different climatic zones of Iran by the use of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) has shown that the most significant change is an increase in precipitation in fall and that the largest share of this increase belongs to arid climate.

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Acknowledgements

This study has been carried out in the Water Institute of the University of Tehran. Authors appreciate supports of the institute for this research. Also, the authors acknowledge and appreciate the constructive comments of the anonymous reviewers.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

    H. A. Pahlavan, M. Nasseri & A. Mahdipour Varnousfaderani

  2. Center of Excellence on Infrastructure Engineering and Management, School of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

    B. Zahraie

  3. Department of Environment, Climate Change Office, Tehran, Iran

    M. Nasseri

Authors
  1. H. A. Pahlavan
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  2. B. Zahraie
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  3. M. Nasseri
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  4. A. Mahdipour Varnousfaderani
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Correspondence to H. A. Pahlavan.

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Editorial responsibility: M. Abbaspour.

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Pahlavan, H.A., Zahraie, B., Nasseri, M. et al. Improvement of multiple linear regression method for statistical downscaling of monthly precipitation. Int. J. Environ. Sci. Technol. 15, 1897–1912 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13762-017-1511-z

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13762-017-1511-z

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