Abstract
The movement of endemic fruit flies to new habitats represents a major biological and economic threat. Anastrepha sororcula Zucchi, 1979 is widely distributed in Brazil and also in Colombia, Ecuador, and Paraguay. Here, we present the potential distribution of A. sororcula in endemic areas and project this model into other regions such as part of sub-Saharan Africa, Central America, and Asia to show areas around the world that this species can potentially establish. We combined geographic coordinates with climate data. The models were built using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) algorithm. Many mango- and guava-producing countries exhibited climatic suitability for A. sororcula in the regions studied including the nine largest world producers: India, Brazil, Malawi, Kenya, Haiti, Cuba, Colombia, Madagascar, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Many of these countries showed ideal host plant availability and climatic conditions for the entry and establishment of A. sororcula. This study is a pioneer in the identification of representative areas in the world with climatic suitability for A. sororcula, which shows the importance of predicting areas at risk of invasion to monitor the movement and establishment of fruit fly species in new regions, which is fundamental to area-wide integrated pest management programs.
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Acknowledgements
Thanks are due to Herval A. Ramos Filho for his aid in improving the figures, Antonio Freire Carvalho for his help with the Ecological Niche Modeling, and Carter Robert Miller for revising the manuscript.
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J.G. Silva acknowledges the International Atomic Agency IAEA/FAO-UN and the Fundação de Amparo a Pesquisa do Estado da Bahia (FAPESB) for financial support and the Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq) for the research fellowship. A.V. Souza acknowledges the Coordenação Nacional de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES) for granting her a Phd scholarship. E. A. Miranda acknowledges the Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq) for his postdoctoral fellowship (154912/2016–6 and 151193/2019–3 PDJ-CNPq).
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All authors contributed to the study conception and design. Data collection was carried out by Adriane Vieira Souza and Elder Assis Miranda. Material preparation and data analysis were performed by all authors. The first draft of the manuscript was written by all authors, which commented on previous versions. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.
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Souza, A.V., Miranda, E., Passos, J.F. et al. Predicting the Invasion Risk by Anastrepha sororcula (Diptera: Tephritidae) in Distinct Geographic Regions. Neotrop Entomol 50, 989–998 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13744-021-00907-w
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13744-021-00907-w