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Hispanic-White Differences in Lifespan Variability in the United States

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Demography

Abstract

This study is the first to investigate whether and, if so, why Hispanics and non-Hispanic whites in the United States differ in the variability of their lifespans. Although Hispanics enjoy higher life expectancy than whites, very little is known about how lifespan variability—and thus uncertainty about length of life—differs by race/ethnicity. We use 2010 U.S. National Vital Statistics System data to calculate lifespan variance at ages 10+ for Hispanics and whites, and then decompose the Hispanic-white variance difference into cause-specific spread, allocation, and timing effects. In addition to their higher life expectancy relative to whites, Hispanics also exhibit 7 % lower lifespan variability, with a larger gap among women than men. Differences in cause-specific incidence (allocation effects) explain nearly two-thirds of Hispanics’ lower lifespan variability, mainly because of the higher mortality from suicide, accidental poisoning, and lung cancer among whites. Most of the remaining Hispanic-white variance difference is due to greater age dispersion (spread effects) in mortality from heart disease and residual causes among whites than Hispanics. Thus, the Hispanic paradox—that a socioeconomically disadvantaged population (Hispanics) enjoys a mortality advantage over a socioeconomically advantaged population (whites)—pertains to lifespan variability as well as to life expectancy. Efforts to reduce U.S. lifespan variability and simultaneously increase life expectancy, especially for whites, should target premature, young adult causes of death—in particular, suicide, accidental poisoning, and homicide. We conclude by discussing how the analysis of Hispanic-white differences in lifespan variability contributes to our understanding of the Hispanic paradox.

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Notes

  1. In 2010, the age-adjusted mortality rate among Hispanics (558.6 per 100,000) was 26 % lower than among whites (755.0 per 100,000) (Murphy et al. 2013).

  2. Hispanics exhibit lower lifespan variability relative to whites by roughly the same margin regardless of whether 2010 data are adjusted for ethnic misclassification. With unadjusted data (reported in this article), variability estimates for Hispanics and whites are 205.6 and 221.5, respectively. With adjusted data (Arias 2014), variability estimates for Hispanics and whites are 201.6 and 215.3, respectively.

  3. We include individuals in the open-ended age group 100+ in our variance estimates and assign them a value of 100.5 years. Our calculations may slightly underestimate the true variation of the mortality distribution by top-coding age at 100, although very small proportions of Hispanics and whites survive past age 100.

  4. We present figures plotting cause-specific age-at-death distributions for the causes of death that most substantially contribute to the Hispanic-white difference in lifespan variability. Cause-specific figures for all 18 causes of death are available in Fig. S1 of Online Supplement 1.

  5. Using the approximation of the threshold age derived by Gillespie et al. (2014), the threshold ages at age 10 are about 68 years among Hispanics and about 65 years among whites.

  6. Age-standardized mortality rates for Hispanics and whites ages 75+ are 5,582.8 and 7,357.6 per 100,000, respectively (authors’ calculation).

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Acknowledgments

An earlier draft of this article was presented at the 2013 Population Association of America meeting in New Orleans, LA. We would like to thank Vladimir Canudas-Romo for his thoughtful comments and the National Center for Health Statistics for providing a special request data file. Research for this article was supported by training grants from the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (5 T32 HD007081) and the National Institute on Aging (5 T32 AG000139). We are grateful to the Carolina Population Center and its NIH center grant (2 P2C HD050924-11) for general support.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Sociology, University of Memphis, 223 Clement Hall, Memphis, TN, 38152, USA

    Joseph T. Lariscy

  2. The Johns Hopkins Global Obesity Prevention Center, Bloomberg School of Public Health, W3508, 615 Wolfe Street, Baltimore, MD, 21205, USA

    Claudia Nau

  3. Population Research Institute and Department of Sociology and Criminology, The Pennsylvania State University, 902 Oswald Tower, University Park, PA, 16802, USA

    Glenn Firebaugh

  4. Carolina Population Center and Department of Sociology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, 206 West Franklin Street, Room 211, Chapel Hill, NC, 27516, USA

    Robert A. Hummer

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  1. Joseph T. Lariscy
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Correspondence to Joseph T. Lariscy.

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Table 3 Correspondence between ICD-10 codes and 18 cause-of-death categories
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Lariscy, J.T., Nau, C., Firebaugh, G. et al. Hispanic-White Differences in Lifespan Variability in the United States. Demography 53, 215–239 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-015-0450-x

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