Abstract
Due to that participation of energy storage in wind power dispatch can improve scheduling reliability of Grid-accessed, the effectiveness depends on energy storage capacity and feasible energy management. Daily economic dispatch model is proposed firstly under the consideration of scheduling reliability and working characteristics of energy storage. Secondly, the Time–Sequence Rolling Optimal Ultra-short-term scheduling algorithm of energy storage is developed based on dynamic deviation estimation update. To deal with the problems caused by unforeseen prediction error of wind power or energy storage SOC (state-of-charge), relaxation factor of the allowable Grid-accessed power deviation range is introduced either in the scheduling algorithm to ensure reliability of established energy storage capacity. Finally, GA (Genetic Algorithm) and EMD (Empirical Mode Decomposition) are used in reference value setting of hybrid energy storage power distribution. The feasibility of the dispatch model and energy management strategy are verified by the wind/storage simulation platform.
Similar content being viewed by others
Abbreviations
- ARMA:
-
Autoregressive moving average model
- ARIMA:
-
Autoregressive integrated moving average model
- BP:
-
Back-propagation
- BA:
-
Bat algorithm
- PSO:
-
Particle swarm optimization
- OPRC:
-
Optimization power regression curve
- DWT:
-
Discrete wavelet transform
- SVM:
-
Support vector machines
- SBL:
-
Sparse Bayesian learning
- EDM:
-
Empirical dynamic modeling
- KDE:
-
Kernel density estimation
- GP:
-
Gaussian Process
- DYGP:
-
Dynamic GP
- DIGP:
-
Direct GP
- STGP:
-
Static GP
- IDGP:
-
Indirect GP
- G_RQ:
-
Gaussian process regression with the rational quadratic kernel
- G_SE:
-
Gaussian process regression with the squared exponential kernel
- G_M52:
-
Gaussian process regression with the matern 5/2 kernel
- G_Exp:
-
Gaussian process regression with the exponential kernel
- GMR:
-
Generalized mapping regressor
- RF:
-
Random forest
- O2O:
-
One to one
- GRF:
-
Generalized random forest
- XGB:
-
Extreme gradient boosting
- EMD:
-
Empirical mode decomposition
- EEMD:
-
Ensemble empirical mode decomposition
- CEEMDAN:
-
Complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise
- ELM:
-
Extreme learning machine
- KELM:
-
kernel extreme learning machine
- IELM:
-
Improved extreme learning machine
- GA:
-
Genetic algorithm
- ADQPSO:
-
Adaptive disturbance quantum PSO
- LLE:
-
Local linear embedding
- PCA:
-
principal component analysis
- LZC:
-
Lempel-Ziv complexity
- SSA:
-
Salp swarm algorithms
- WPD:
-
Wavelet packet decomposition
- VMD:
-
Variable mode decomposition
- IGWO:
-
Improved gray wolf optimization
- OS-ELM:
-
Online sequential-ELM
- TMD:
-
Two-layer mode decomposition
- NN:
-
Neural network
- ICA:
-
Imperialistic competitive algorithm
- MWNN:
-
Morlet wavelet neural network
- T-SFNN:
-
T-S fuzzy neural network
- WNN:
-
Wavelet-based neural network
- NNWT:
-
Neural network with wavelet transform
- k-NN:
-
k-Nearest neighbor
- SGNN:
-
Superposition graph neural network
- ANN:
-
Artificial neural network
- MTS:
-
Memory tabu search
- SNN:
-
Spiking neural network
- WNF:
-
Wavelet neuro fuzzy
- HPA:
-
Hybrid PSO–ANFIS
- CNN:
-
Convolutional neural network
- GRU:
-
Gated recurrent unit
- MIV:
-
Mean impact value
- GRNN:
-
Generalized regression neural network
- D.E:
-
Dilation and erosion
- DPK:
-
Differential privacy protection
- K-mean:
-
k-means clustering algorithm
- FNN:
-
Feed-forward neural network
- ANFIS:
-
Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System
- PER:
-
Persistence
- DSN:
-
Double-Stage neural network
- DSA:
-
Double-Stage ANFIS
- DSHGN:
-
Double-Stage Hybrid GA-NN
- DSHPN:
-
Double-Stage Hybrid PSO-NN
- BPNN:
-
Back-Propagation Neural Network
- AM:
-
Adaptive Mutation
- WPD:
-
Wavelet packet decomposition
- GMDH:
-
Group method data handling
- RBF:
-
Radial basis function
- ACFOA:
-
Adaptive chaos fruit fly optimization algorithm
- T2FNN:
-
Type-2 Fuzzy neural network
- KNEA:
-
kernel-based nonlinear extension Arps
- LSSVM:
-
Least squares support vector machines
- IGSA:
-
Improved gravitational search algorithm
- BN:
-
Beveridge-Nelson
- ALO:
-
Ant lion optimization
- S_C:
-
Support Vector with the Cubic kernel
- S_CG:
-
Support Vector with the Coarse Gaussian kernel
- S_FG:
-
Support Vector with the Fine Gaussian kernel
- S_L:
-
Support Vector with the Linear kernel
- S_MG:
-
Support Vector with the Medium Gaussian kernel
- S_Q:
-
Support Vector with the quadratic kernel
- SVR:
-
Support vector regression
- CS:
-
Cuckoo search
- LSTM:
-
Long short-term memory
- DLSTM:
-
Deep long short-term memory
- EFG:
-
Enhanced forget-gate
- MLP:
-
Multi-layer perceptron
- CRPSO:
-
Cooperative random particle swarm optimization
- DE:
-
Differential evolution
- SSO:
-
Simplified swarm optimization
- QR:
-
Quantile regression
Reference
Harlow, F.H.; Fromm, J.E.: Computer experiments in fluid dynamics. Sci. Am. 212(3), 104–110 (1965)
Alvarez Estrada, R.F.; Ramos, J.J.: Renormalization properties of a nonrelativistic persistent model. Nuovo Cimento A Ser. 50(3), 323–337 (1967)
Wang, Y.; Liu, Y.; Li, L., et al.: Short-term wind power forecasting based on clustering pre-calculated CFD method. Energies. 11(4), 854–866 (2018)
Yongxia, L., Yanyan, Z.: A rolling ARMA method for Ultra-short term wind power prediction. 13th IEEE Conference on Automation Science and Engineering. China, Xi-An, 20-23 Aug 2017.
Box, G.E.P.; Pierce, D.A.: Distribution of residual autocorrelations in autoregressive-integrated moving average time series models. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 65(332), 1509–1527 (1970)
Shi, Y.; Eberhart, R.C.: Parameter selection in particle swarm optimization. Lect. Notes Computer Sci. 1447(1), 591–600 (1998)
Yang, X.: A new metaheuristic Bat-Inspired algorithm. Nature Inspired Cooperative Strategies Optim. 284, 65–74 (2010)
Tang, L.; Dong, Y.: Wind power forecasting based on improved grid algorithm and BA-BP-ARMA Model. Water Resour. Power. 36(7), 211–214 (2018)
Wang, Y.; Wang, D.; Tang, Y.: Clustered hybrid wind power prediction model based on ARMA PSO-SVM and clustering methods. IEEE Access. 8, 7071–17079 (2020)
Peng, L.; Lin, Y.; Yong, T., et al.: Ultra-short-term combined prediction approach based on Kernel function switch mechanism. Renew. Energy 25, 842–866 (2021)
Tomek, I.: A generalization of the k-NN rule. Syst., Man Cybern. 6(2), 121–126 (1976)
Ahmed, A.; Khalid, M.: Multi-step ahead wind forecasting using nonlinear autoregressive neural networks. Energy Procedia. 134(1), 192–204 (2017)
Sun, W.; Wang, Y.: Short term wind speed forecasting based on fast ensemble empirical mode decomposition, phase space reconstruction, sample entropy and improved back propagation neural network. Energy Conv. Manage. 18, 1–12 (2018)
Hur, S.-H.: Short-term wind speed prediction using Extended Kalman filter and machine learning. Energy Rep. 451, 1046–1054 (2021)
Malevič, T.L.: The empirical spectral distribution of a Gaussian process in linear regression schemes. IZV AKAD NAUK FIZ. 1964(6), 31–37 (1964)
MaYang, J.M.; Lin, Y.: Ultra-short-term probabilistic wind turbine power forecast based on empirical dynamic modeling. IEEE Trans. Sustain. Energy. 11(2), 906–915 (2020)
Junho Lee, W.; Wang, F.H., et al.: Wind power prediction using ensemble learning-based models. IEEE Access. 8, 61517–61527 (2020)
Marvuglia, A.; Messineo, A.: Monitoring of wind farms’ power curves using machine learning techniques. Appl. Energy. 98, 574–583 (2012)
Breiman, L.: Random forests. Mach. Learn. 45(1), 5–32 (2001)
Xue, H.; Jia, Y.; Wen, P., et al.: Using of improved models of Gaussian Processes in order to regional wind power forecasting. J. Cleaner Prod. 262, 121391–121400 (2020)
Hongfang, L.; Ma, X.; Huang, K., et al.: Prediction of offshore wind farm power using a novel two-stage model combining kernel-based nonlinear extension of the Arps decline model with a multi-objective grey wolf optimizer. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 127, 109856–109872 (2020)
Torrésani, B.: Time-frequency representations: wavelet packets and optimal decomposition. ANN I H POINCARE-PR. 56(2), 215–234 (1992)
Zhu, Q.Y.; Qin, A.K.; Suganthan, P.N., et al.: Evolutionary extreme learning machine. Pattern Recogn. 38(10), 1759–1763 (2005)
Seyedali, M.; Gandomi Amir, H.; Zahra, M.S.: Salp swarm algorithm: a bio-inspired optimizer for engineering design problems. Adv. Eng. Softw. 114, 163–191 (2017)
Zhang, C.; Ding, M.; Wang, W., et al.: An improved ELM model based on CEEMD-LZC and manifold learning for short-term wind power prediction. IEEE Access. 7, 121472–121481 (2019)
Boyang, Q.; Lisi, F.: Research on short-term wind power prediction model based on ADQPSO-KELM. Int. J. Hydroelectr. Energy. 37(12), 190–193 (2019)
Yin, H.; Zuhong, O.; Chen, D., et al.: Ultra-short-term wind power prediction based on two-layer mode decomposition and cascaded deep learning. Power Syst. Technol. 44(2), 445–453 (2020)
Tan, L.; Han, J.; Zhang, H.: Ultra-short-term wind power prediction by salp swarm algorithm-based optimizing extreme learning machine. IEEE Power Energy Soc. Sect. 8, 44470–44484 (2020)
Mishra, S.P.: Short-term forecasting of wind power generation using extreme learning machine and its variants. Int. J. Power Energy Conv. 8(1), 68–89 (2017)
Kennedy, D.; Selverston, A.I.; Remler, M.P.: Analysis of restricted neural networks. Science. 164(3887), 1448–1496 (1969)
Kais B.: Neuro-fuzzy Inferenz-systeme. Fuzzy Logic. 1993.
Mottaghi, H.; Zandyeh, M.; Ayough, A.: Designing GA and ICA approaches to solve an originative job rotation scheduling problem regarding bordem costs. Allameh Tabataba’i University Press 6(16), 29–54 (2007)
Ghadi, M.J.; Gilani, S.H.; Afrakhte, H., et al.: A novel heuristic method for wind farm power prediction: a case study. Int. J. Electr. Powre Energy Syst. 63, 962–970 (2014)
Jahangir, H.; Golkar, M.A.; Alhameli, F., et al.: Short-term wind speed forecasting framework based on stacked denoising auto-encoders with rough ANN. Sustain. Energy Technol. Assess. 38, 100601–100613 (2020)
Wang, K.; Qi, X.; Liu, H., et al.: Deep belief network based K-means cluster approach for short term wind power forecasting. Energy. 165, 840–852 (2018)
Saoud, L.S.; Al-Marzouqi, H.; Deriche, M.: Wind speed forecasting using the stationary wavelet transform and quaternion adaptive-gradient methods. IEEE Access. 9, 127356–127367 (2021)
Mei, Y.; Zhang, Z.; Li, Xu., et al.: Superposition graph neural network for offshore wind power prediction. Fut. Gener. Computer Syst. 113, 145–157 (2020)
Swaroop, R.P.; Apurv, Y.; Harsha, Y., et al.: Predicting the output of a wind mill using ANN modelling. Recent Adv. Mech. Eng. 25, 207–215 (2021)
Wang, Z.; Feng, G.; Zhi, R., et al.: Seasonal division of 850 hPa South China Sea based on multi-element atmospheric condition similarity. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 139(3–4), 995–1006 (2020)
Hao, Y.; Dong, L.; Liao, X., et al.: A novel clustering algorithm based on mathematical morphology for wind power generation prediction. Renew. Energy. 136, 572–585 (2019)
İnan, T., Baba. A. F.: Prediction of Wind Speed Using Artificial Neural Networks and ANFIS Method. Innovations in Intelligent Systems and Applications Conferenc. 2020:1-5.
Li, F.; Liao, H.-Y.: An intelligent method for wind power forecasting based on integrated power slope events prediction and wind speed forecasting. IEEE Trans. Electr. Electron. Eng. 13(8), 1099–1105 (2018)
Abinet Tesfaye, E., Zhang, J., Zheng, D.: et al. A double-stage hierarchical hybrid PSO-ANN model for short-term wind power prediction. 2017 2nd IEEE International Conference on Cloud Computing and Big Data Analysis. China, Chengdu, 28-30 Apr 2017.
Li, H., Abinet Tesfaye, E., Zhang, J.: et al. A double-stage hierarchical hybrid PSO-ANFIS model for short-term wind power forecasting. 2017 9th Annual IEEE Green Technologies Conference. USA, Denver, 29-31 Mar 2017.
Biswas, N.N.; Kumar, R.: A new algorithm for learning representations in boolean neural networks. Curr. Sci. 59(12), 595–600 (1990)
Zeng, G.; Ye, S.: A grey model for river water qualification and its grey parameters’ optimal estimation. J. Grey Syst. 1(1), 53–64 (1989)
Li, L.; Li, Y.; Zhou, B., et al.: An adaptive time-resolution method for ultra-short-term wind power prediction. Int. J. Electr. Power Energy Syst. 118, 105814–105824 (2020)
M. Groch, J. Vermeulen. Short-Term Ensemble NWP wind speed forecasts using Mean-Variance Portfolio Optimization and Neural Networks. EEEIC / I&CPS. Europe, 2019:1-6.
Pengchao, X.; Li, Y.; Zhao, Y.: Short-term wind power forecasting based on adaptive mutant bat optimized BP neural network. Electr. Measure. Instrumentation. 58(4), 97–104 (2021)
Han, Y.; Tong, X.: Multi-step short-term wind power prediction based on three-level decomposition and improved grey wolf optimization. IEEE Access. 8, 67124–67136 (2020)
Billingsley, F.P.; Shillady, D.D.: A discussion of integral transform radial basis functions. Chem. Phys. Lett. 5(2), 97–100 (1970)
Yang, X.; Deb, S.: Engineering optimisation by cuckoo search. Mathematics. 1(5), 330–343 (2010)
Wang, X.; Liu, J.; Bing, H., et al.: Short-term wind power prediction based on CS-SVR model. Computer Measure. Control. 28(1), 152–155 (2020)
Zhang, J.; Yan, J.; David, I., et al.: Short-term forecasting and uncertainty analysis of wind turbine power based on long short-term memory network and Gaussian mixture model. Appl. Energy. 241, 229–244 (2019)
Zhenghua, X.; Liu, S.; Wang, Z.: Wind power prediction based on kNN-SVR model. J. Electr. Power. 34(5), 411–416 (2019)
Xiang, L.; Deng, Z.; Hu, A.: Forecasting short-term wind speed based on IEWT-LSSVM model optimized by bird swarm algorithm. IEEE Access. 7, 59333–59345 (2019)
Hochreiter, S.; Schmidhuber, J.: Long short-term memory. Neural Comput. 9(8), 1735–1780 (1997)
Cui, S.; Peng, D.; Qian, Y.: Short-term wind power prediction based on the optimization of radial basis function by adaptive chaos fruit fly optimization algorithm. Renew. Energy. 35(1), 80–85 (2017)
Sharifian, A.; Ghadi, M.J.; Ghavidel, S., et al.: A new method based on Type-2 fuzzy neural network for accurate wind power forecasting under uncertain data. Renew. Energy. 120, 220–230 (2018)
Müller, K.R.; Smola, A.J.; Rätsch, G., et al.: Predicting time series with support vector machines. Artif. Neural Netw. 1327, 999–1004 (1997)
Suykens, J.A.K.; Vandewalle, J.: Least squares support vector machine classifiers. Neural Process. Lett. 9(3), 293–300 (1999)
Peng, L.; Ye, L.; Sun, B., et al.: A new hybrid prediction method of Ultra-Short-Term wind power forecasting based on EEMD-PE and LSSVM optimized by the GSA. Energies. 11(4), 697–709 (2018)
Jiang, Y.; Yang, X.; He, F., et al.: Super-short-time wind power forecasting based on EEMD-IGSA-LSSVM. J. Hunan University. 43(10), 70–78 (2016)
Guo, S.: Wind power forecasting based on BN decomposition and LSSVM model optimized by ALO. Smart Power. 45(7), 92–99 (2017)
Zhang, X.; Li, G.: Multi-step prediction method of short-term wind power based on the IEEMD and LS-SVM. Electr. Measure. Instrumentation. 57(6), 52–60 (2020)
Ji, G.; Yuan, Y.; Huang, J., et al.: Combined model based on EEMD-HS-SVM for short-term wind power prediction. Renew. Energy. 35(8), 1221–1228 (2017)
Kai, T.; Dinghui, W.: Short-term wind power forecasting based on VMD-JAYA-LSSVM. Control Eng. China 25, 7 (2019)
Support vector machines for classification and regression. University of Southampton: S.R. Gunn. 1998.
Baobin, Z., Bo, S., Xiao, G.: et al. Ultra-short-term prediction of wind power based on EMD and DLSTM. Proceedings of the 14th IEEE Conference on Industrial Electronics and Applications. China, Xi-An, 19-21 June 2019.
Wang, Y.; Xie, D.; Wang, X., et al.: Prediction of interaction between grid and wind farms based on PCA-LSTM Model. Proc. CSEE. 39(14), 4070–4081 (2019)
Ruiguo, Y.; Gao, J.; Mei, Y., et al.: LSTM-EFG for wind power forecasting based on sequential correlation features. Fut. Gener. Computer Syst. 93, 33–42 (2019)
Ikedaa, S.; Fujishigea, S.; Sawaracla, Y.: Non-linear prediction model of river flow by self-organization method. Int. J. Syst. Sci. 7(2), 165–176 (1976)
Holl John, H.: Genetic algorithms and the optimal allocation of trials. SIAM J. Comput. 2(2), 88–105 (1973)
Changseok, B.; Wei Chang, Y.; Yuk Ying, C.: Simplified swarm optimization for life log data mining. IT Converg. Serv. 107, 583–589 (2011)
Yan, J.; Guoqing, H.: Short-term wind speed prediction: hybrid of ensemble empirical mode decomposition, feature selection and error correction. Energy Conv. Manage. 144(17), 340–350 (2017)
Yang, J.; Wang, X.; Luo, X., et al.: Intelligent combined prediction of wind power based on numerical weather prediction and fuzzy clustering. IFAC - Papers Online. 48(28), 538–543 (2015)
Hua, Y.; Zhengping, W.: A Hybrid Short-Term wind power prediction model combining data processing, multiple parameters optimization and Multi-Intelligent models apportion strategy. IEEE Access. 25, 227126–227140 (2020)
Lin, L.; Xia, D.; Dai, L., et al.: Chaotic analysis and prediction of wind speed based on Wavelet Decomposition. Processes. 9(1793), 1793–1805 (2021)
Ye, L.; Zhu, Q.; Zhao, Y.: Dynamic optimal combination model considering adaptive exponential for ultra-short term wind power prediction. Autom. Electr. Power Syst. 39(20), 12–18 (2015)
Yi, J.; Lin, W.; Jianxiong, H., et al.: An integrated Model-driven and Data-driven method for on-line prediction of transient stability of power system with wind power generation. IEEE Access. 8, 83472–83482 (2020)
Longbo, X.; Wang, W.; Zhang, T., et al.: Ultra-short-term wind power prediction based on neural network and mean impact value. Autom. Electr. Power Syst. 41(21), 40–45 (2017)
Chen, X.; Zhang, X.; Dong, M., et al.: Deep learning-based prediction of wind power for Multi-turbines in a wind farm. Front. Energy Res. 9, 723775–723781 (2021)
Rui, F., Min, Z., Yin, X.: et al. A Multi-level Two-stage optimal dispatch model for Wind-storage hybrid System. 39th Chinese Control Conference (CCC). 27-29 July 2020, Shenyang, China
Jian, X.; Wang, B.; Sun, Y., et al.: A Day-ahead economic dispatch method considering extreme scenarios based on wind power uncertainty. CSEE J. Power Energy Syst. 5(2), 224–232 (2019)
Peter Praveen, J., Mahaboob, B. Donthi, R.: et al. On stochastic linear regression model selection. AIP Conference Proceedings. 2019; 2192(1):020068-020089.
Ryabtseva, V.; Skomorokhov, A.: Critical power prediction using SVM algorithms. Procedia Computer Science. 169, 198–202 (2020)
Zhou, Y.; Zhou, N.; Lihua, G., et al.: Prediction of photovoltaic power output based on similar day analysis, genetic algorithm and extreme learning machine. Energy. 204, 117894–117903 (2020)
Dehua, Z.; Semero, Y.K.; Jianhua, Z., et al.: Short-term wind power prediction in microgrids using a hybrid approach integrating genetic algorithm, particle swarm optimization, and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems. IEEJ Trans. Electr. Electron. Eng. 13(11), 1561–1567 (2018)
National Energy Commission. Interim measures for the administration of wind farm power prediction and prediction. Solar Energy. 2011; 5(14): 6-7.(Chinese)
East China Electricity Regulatory Bureau. Rules for the implementation of auxiliary service management and grid-connected operation management of power scheduling in East China Region (Power Regulatory Market [2018] No.53) [Z]. 2018.(Chinese)
National Commercial Electricity Prices-General Commercial Electricity Charges, State Grid Peak and Valley Electricity Price Period - Electricity Peak and Valley Time Period and Electricity Price, http://www.gklaser.com/yqkk/36959.html
Paliwal Navin, K.: A day-ahead optimal scheduling operation of battery energy storage with constraints in hybrid power system. Procedia Computer Sci. 167, 2140–2152 (2020)
Antelis, J.M.; Rivera, C.A.; Galvis, E., et al.: Detection of SSVEP based on empirical mode decomposition and power spectrum peaks analysis. Biocybern. Biomed. Eng. 40(3), 1010–1021 (2020)
Acknowledgements
This work is a part of the National Natural Science Research Programs of China (No. 61673226, U2066203, 61973178)), considerable Natural Science Research Projects of Colleges and Universities in Jiangsu Province of China (No. BE2021063), Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province (BK20200969), Nantong Science and Technology Bureau Project (JC2018116), and Jiangsu Province's fifth ‘333 high-level talent training objects’ Project. The authors would like to thank for the supports from both the Ministry of Science and Technology and National Natural Science Foundation of China.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
Springer Nature or its licensor holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
About this article
Cite this article
Zhu, Jh., Xu, R., Gu, J. et al. Wind/Storage Power Scheduling Based on Time–Sequence Rolling Optimization. Arab J Sci Eng 48, 6219–6236 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13369-022-07220-7
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13369-022-07220-7