Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Impact of Substitution Rate on Energy Consumption Structure: A Dynamical System Approach

  • Research Article-Systems Engineering
  • Published:
Arabian Journal for Science and Engineering Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Energy structure in global terminal consumption is moving towards a direction of low carbon. This study analyzes the evolution of the share of coal in energy consumption structure by continuous dynamical systems. Based on the complex and dynamic interactions among energy sources, an n-dimensional dynamical system model is constructed where the alternative of other energy sources for coal are modeled by the linear parameters. A case study of China is performed on its terminal energy consumption structure. Three scenarios are set to analyze and compare the particular evolution paths of coal share: the substitution rate changes, the self-growth rate changes, and both the substitution rate and self-growth rate change. Results show that the improvement of renewable power in either the substitution rate or self-growth rate is the most effective to reduce the proportion of coal. As to other energy sources, raising the coal substitution rate is better than increasing their self-growth rate. It concludes that proper control of coal power, moderate development of hydropower, and active and safe development of nuclear power are likely increase the proportion of electric in terminal energy consumption. This study provides an alternative and promising approach to analyze the evolution of coal ratio in energy consumption structure and may have potential application in other areas and countries.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11
Fig. 12
Fig. 13
Fig. 14

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. Wang, Z.; Zhu, Y.S.; Zhu, Y.B.; Shi, Y.: Energy structure change and carbon emission trends in China. Energy 115, 369–377 (2016)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  2. Meng, N.; Xu, Y.; Huang, G.H.: A stochastic multi-objective optimization model for renewable energy structure adjustment management-a case study for the city of Dalian, China. Ecol. Indic. 97, 476–485 (2019)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  3. Liu, Y.H.; Ge, Q.S.; He, F.N.; Cheng, B.B.: Countermeasures against international pressure of reducing CO2 emissions and analysis on China’s potential of CO2 emission reduction. Acta. Geogr. Sin. 63(7), 675–682 (2008)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  4. Sheng, J.C.; Qiu, H.; Zhang, S.F.: Opportunity cost, income structure, and energy structure for landholders participating in payments for ecosystem services: evidence from Wolong National Nature Reserve, China. World Dev. 117, 230–238 (2019)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  5. Fan, D.C.; Wang, S.H.; Zhang, W.: Analysis of the influence factors of the primary energy consumption structure under the target of low-carbon economy. Resour. Sci. 34(4), 696–703 (2012)

    Google Scholar 

  6. Seow, Y.Y.; Goffin, N.; Rahimifard, S.; Woolley, E.: A ‘design for energy minimization’ approach to reduce energy consumption during the manufacturing phase. Energy 109, 894–905 (2016)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. Kahia, M.; Aïssa, M.S.B.; Charfeddine, L.: Impact of renewable and non-renewable energy consumption on economic growth: new evidence from the MENA Net Oil Exporting Countries (NOECs). Energy 116, 102–115 (2016)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. Capellan, P.I.; Mediavilla, M.; Castro, C.; Carpintero, O.; Miguel, L.J.: Fossil fuel depletion and socio-economic scenarios: an integrated approach. Energy 77, 641–666 (2014)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. Wu, Z.B.; Xu, J.P.: Predicting and optimization of energy consumption using system dynamics-fuzzy multiple objective programming in world heritage areas. Energy 49, 19–31 (2013)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. Vishnupriyan, J.; Manoharan, P.S.: Demand side management approach to rural electrification of different climate zones in Indian state of Tamil Nadu. Energy 138, 799–815 (2017)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. Ou, T.C.; Lu, K.H.; Huang, C.J.: Improvement of transient stability in a hybrid power multi-system using a designed NIDC (Novel Intelligent Damping Controller). Energies 10(4), 488 (2017)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  12. Deng, Z.R.; Fan, D.C.: Research on energy structure problems and solutions in China. Mod. Manag. Sci. 6, 84–85 (2009)

    Google Scholar 

  13. Deng, H.P.: Econometric analysis of economic growth and energy consumption structure in Henan province. Theor. Res. 1, 9–11 (2011)

    Google Scholar 

  14. Liu, Y.Q.; Zhao, G.H.: The evolution analysis of China’s energy consumption structure in the constraints of energy-saving and carbon emissions-reduction. Econ. Issues 1, 27–33 (2015)

    Google Scholar 

  15. Zeng, S.; Li, R.Q.: Research on the influence factors of energy consumption structure. World Sci. Technol. 36(1), 10–14 (2014)

    Google Scholar 

  16. He, H.Z.; Kua, H.W.: Lessons for integrated household energy conservation policy from Singapore-southwest Eco-living Program. Energy Policy 55, 105–116 (2013)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  17. Gao, C.X.; Sun, M.; Shen, B.; Li, R.R.; Tian, L.X.: Optimization of China’s energy structure based on portfolio theory. Energy 77, 890–897 (2014)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  18. Hu, Y.; Peng, L.; Li, X.; Yao, X.J.; Lin, H.; Chi, T.H.: A novel evolution tree for analyzing the global energy consumption structure. Energy 147, 1177–1187 (2018)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  19. Sun, J.S.; Guo, L.; Wang, Z.H.: Optimizing China’s energy consumption structure under energy and carbon constraints. Struct. Chan. Econ. Dyn. 47, 57–72 (2018)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  20. Geng, Z.Q.; Bai, J.; Jiang, D.Y.; Han, Y.M.: Energy structure analysis and energy saving of complex chemical industries: a novel fuzzy interpretative structural model. Appl. Therm. Eng. 142, 433–443 (2018)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  21. Ha, Q.; Royel, S.; Balaguer, C.: Low-energy structures embedded with smart dampers. Energy Build. 177, 375–384 (2018)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  22. Ji, Q.; Zhang, D.Y.: How much does financial development contribute to renewable energy growth and upgrading of energy structure in China? Energy Policy 128, 114–124 (2019)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  23. Lu, S.B.; Wang, J.H.; Shang, Y.Z.; Bao, H.J.; Chen, H.X.: Potential assessment of optimizing energy structure in the city of carbon intensity target. Appl. Energy 194, 765–773 (2017)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  24. Chen, Z.H.; Wei, S.: Application of system dynamics to water security research. Water Resour. Manag. 28(2), 287–300 (2014)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  25. Tang V.; Vijay S.: System dynamics: origins, development, and future prospects of a method. In: Research Seminar in Engineering Systems (2001)

  26. Simon, H.A.: Can there be a science of complex systems? In: The 2nd international conference on complex systems. NASHUA, NH (1998)

  27. Sterman, J.: System dynamics modeling: Tools for learning in a complex world. Calif. Manag. Rev. 43(4), 8–25 (2001)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  28. Han, Z.Y.; Fan, Y.; Jiao, J.L.; Yan, J.S.; Wei, Y.M.: Energy structure, marginal efficiency and substitution rate: an empirical study of China. Energy 32(6), 935–942 (2007)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  29. Lin, B.Q.; Xie, C.P.: Energy substitution effect on transport industry of China-based on trans-log production function. Energy 67, 213–222 (2014)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  30. Zhao, L.R.; Tian, L.X.: Logistic model for energy resource structure in Chinese western regional and its forecast. Chin. J. Manag. 5(5), 678–681 (2008). [in Chinese]

    Google Scholar 

  31. Peragon, C.F.; Palomar, J.M.; Casanova, P.J.; Dorado, M.P.; Agugliaro, M.F.: Characterization of solar flat plate collectors. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 16(3), 1709–1720 (2012)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  32. Beijing Institute of Technology Energy and Environmental Policy Research Center: China Energy Report–Strategy and Policy Research. Beijing (2006)

  33. Chang, K.; Zhang, C.; Chang, H.: Emissions reduction allocation and economic welfare estimation through interregional emissions trading in China: evidence from efficiency and equity. Energy 113, 1125–1135 (2016)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  34. Fang G.C.: Analysis and application of a new type of energy saving and emission reduction system. Jiangsu University: Ph.D. thesis (2014) (in Chinese)

  35. Hatzigeorgiou, E.; Polatidis, H.; Haralambopoulos, D.: CO2 emissions, GDP and energy intensity: a multivariate cointegration and causality analysis for Greece, 1977–2007. Appl. Energy 88, 1377–1385 (2011)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  36. Yang, H.L.; Wang, L.; Tian, L.X.: Evolution of competition in energy alternative pathway and the influence of energy policy on economic growth. Energy 88, 223–233 (2015)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  37. International Energy Agency: Total final consumption (TFC) by source—People’s Republic of China. https://www.iea.org/countries/china (2017)

  38. Guan, W.H.; Gu, C.L.; Lin, Z.S.: Study on the change of energy consumption structure in China. J. Nat. Resour. 21(3), 401–407 (2006). [in Chinese]

    Google Scholar 

  39. Ding, N.; Pan, J.J.; Liu, J.R.; Yang, J.X.: An optimization method for energy structures based on life cycle assessment and its application to the power grid in China. J. Environ. Manag. 238, 18–24 (2019)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  40. Zhu, B.; Huang, L.; Yuan, L.; Ye, S.; Wang, P.: Exploring the risk spillover effects between carbon market and electricity market: a bidimensional empirical mode decomposition based conditional value at risk approach. Int. Rev. Econ. Finance 67, 163–175 (2020)

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

Research is supported by the National Science Foundation of China (No. 71673116) and Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province (SBK2015021674).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Center for Energy Development and Environmental Protection Strategy Research, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang, 212013, Jiangsu, China

    Xuxia Li, Ying Zhang, Xinghua Fan & Jiuli Yin

Authors
  1. Xuxia Li
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Ying Zhang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Xinghua Fan
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Jiuli Yin
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Xinghua Fan.

Ethics declarations

Conflict of interest

The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Li, X., Zhang, Y., Fan, X. et al. Impact of Substitution Rate on Energy Consumption Structure: A Dynamical System Approach. Arab J Sci Eng 46, 1603–1615 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13369-020-04694-1

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13369-020-04694-1

Keywords

Search

Navigation