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Long-Term Wind Speed Analysis and Detection of its Trends Using Mann–Kendall Test and Linear Regression Method

  • Research Article - Special Issue - Mechanical Engineering
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Abstract

Exponentially growing global population, power demands, pollution levels, and on the other hand rapid advancement in means of communication have made the people aware of the complex do or die situation. Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has vast open land, abundance of fossil fuel, not much population but has always been among the front runners whereas development and utilization of clean sources of energy are concerned. Long-term wind speed trends have been studied in this study using Mann–Kendall statistical trend analysis method. Historical daily mean wind speed data measured at 8–12m above ground level at national and international airports in the Kingdom over a period of 37 years was used to obtain long-term annual and monthly mean wind speeds, annual mean wind speed trends, and energy yield using an efficient modern wind turbine of 2.75 MW rated power. Trend analysis that showed a decreasing trend of 0.01852 m/s per year was observed in annual mean wind speed values based on the algebraic average of the trend coefficient (a) of all the stations used in the present work. Based on long-term annual average wind speed of more than 4 m/s, Al-Wejh, Dhahran, Guriat, Turaif, and Yanbo are placed in the preferred category for wind power development, and AlJouf, Arar, and Qaisumah with annual average wind speed 3.75 m/s range are placed in the second list of preferred locations for wind power development. At most of the locations, the wind power can be generated with 25–35% of plant capacity factor in Saudi Arabia.

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Abbreviations

B :

Constant

f(t):

Continuous monotonic increasing or decreasing function of time

Q :

Slope

q :

Number of tied groups

S :

Statistical parameter

t p :

Number of data values in the pth group

VAR(S):

Variance

Z :

Test statistic

ε i :

Residual

α :

Confidence level

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  1. Center for Engineering Research, Research Institute, King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals, Dhahran, 31261, Saudi Arabia

    Shafiqur Rehman

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Rehman, S. Long-Term Wind Speed Analysis and Detection of its Trends Using Mann–Kendall Test and Linear Regression Method. Arab J Sci Eng 38, 421–437 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13369-012-0445-5

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