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Influence of Strong Tropical Volcanic Eruptions on Daily Temperature and Precipitation Extremes Across the Globe

Abstract

This study investigates the influences of strong tropical volcanic eruptions (SVEs) on daily temperature and precipitation extreme events using long-term simulations from the Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3 (HadCM3) and the Community Earth System Model version 1.1 (CESM1). The results indicate that the occurrences of daily hot extremes and daily heavy precipitation extremes decrease over most parts of the world in the peak forcing years of SVEs. Due to the volcanic cooling effect, the average probability of daily hot extremes decreases by approximately 50% across the globe. The decrease in intensity is stronger for midlatitude land regions and tropical South America. In contrast, daily cold extremes occur more frequently over most parts of continental regions. Globally, a cold extreme event expected once every 3 years under non-volcanic conditions can be expected every 1.5 years on average in the peak forcing years. Overall, the SVE-induced cooling effect plays a dominant role in regulating daily cold and hot extremes. Over high-latitude Eurasian regions, in contrast to other continental regions, the probability and intensity of daily cold extremes decrease due to an SVE-strengthened polar vortex and the associated temperature advection anomalies. With regard to daily heavy precipitation extremes, the probability and intensity both decrease over most monsoon areas. Further analysis suggests that the reduced probability and intensity of daily heavy precipitation extremes are mainly due to the SVE-induced global decrease in the water-holding capacity.

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Acknowledgments

We thank three anonymous reviewers and the editor for their valuable comments and suggestions, which have helped improve the quality of this paper significantly.

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Correspondence to Tao Wang.

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Supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2016YFA0600701), National Natural Science Foundation of China (41822502 and 41661144005), and Joint Programming Initiative Climate—Belmont Forum Project InterDec.

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Wang, T., Miao, J., Wang, H. et al. Influence of Strong Tropical Volcanic Eruptions on Daily Temperature and Precipitation Extremes Across the Globe. J Meteorol Res 35, 428–443 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-021-0160-9

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-021-0160-9

Key words

  • strong tropical volcanic eruption (SVE)
  • daily extremes
  • temperature
  • precipitation