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Near-Term Projections of Global and Regional Land Mean Temperature Changes Considering Both the Secular Trend and Multidecadal Variability

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Abstract

Near-term climate projections are needed by policymakers; however, these projections are difficult because internally generated climate variations need to be considered. In this study, temperature change scenarios in the near-term period 2017–35 are projected at global and regional scales based on a refined multi-model ensemble approach that considers both the secular trend (ST) and multidecadal variability (MDV) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations. The ST and MDV components are adaptively extracted from each model simulation by using the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) filter, reconstructed via the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) method for the historical period 1901–2005, and validated for 2006–16. In the simulations of the “medium” representative concentration pathways scenario during 2017–35, the MDV-modulated temperature change projected via the refined approach displays an increase of 0.44°C (90% uncertainty range from 0.30 to 0.58°C) for global land, 0.48°C (90% uncertainty range from 0.29 to 0.67°C) for the Northern Hemispheric land (NL), and 0.29°C (90% uncertainty range from 0.23 to 0.35°C) for the Southern Hemispheric land (SL). These increases are smaller than those projected by the conventional arithmetic mean approach. The MDV enhances the ST in 13 of 21 regions across the world. The largest MDV-modulated warming effect (46%) exists in central America. In contrast, the MDV counteracts the ST in NL, SL, and eight other regions, with the largest cooling effect (220%) in Alaska.

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Acknowledgments

The authors thank the reviewers and the Editor for their comments and suggestions to help improve the manuscript. We also thank the Met Office Hadley Center and Climate Research Unit for providing the observed HadCRUT4 data used in this work and the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) for collecting and archiving the model data.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. CAS Key Laboratory of Regional Climate–Environment for Temperate East Asia, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing, 100029, China

    Yajie Qi, Zhongwei Yan & Cheng Qian

  2. Institute of Urban Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, 100089, China

    Yajie Qi

  3. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China

    Zhongwei Yan & Cheng Qian

  4. Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, 100081, China

    Ying Sun

  5. Joint Center for Global Change Studies, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China

    Ying Sun

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  1. Yajie Qi
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Correspondence to Cheng Qian.

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Supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2016YFA0600404), Youth Innovation Promotion Association of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (2016075), and Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Climate Change.

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Qi, Y., Yan, Z., Qian, C. et al. Near-Term Projections of Global and Regional Land Mean Temperature Changes Considering Both the Secular Trend and Multidecadal Variability. J Meteorol Res 32, 337–350 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-018-7136-4

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