Abstract
A new analog error correction (AEC) scheme based on the moving North Pacific index (MNPI) is designed in this study. This scheme shows obvious improvement in the prediction skill of the operational coupled general circulation model (CGCM) of the National Climate Center of China for the rainy season rainfall (RSR) anomaly pattern correlation coefficient (ACC) over the mid-to-lower reaches of the Yangtze River (MLRYR). A comparative analysis indicates that the effectiveness of the new scheme using the MNPI is better than the system error correction scheme using the North Pacific index (NPI). A Euclidean distanceweighted mean rather than a traditional arithmetic mean, is applied to the integration of the analog year’s prediction error fields. By using the MNPI AEC scheme, independent sample hindcasts of RSR during the period 2003–2009 are then evaluated. The results show that the new scheme exhibited a higher forecast skill during 2003–2009, with an average ACC of 0.47; while the ACC for the NPI case was only 0.19. Furthermore, the forecast skill of the RSR over the MLRYR is examined. In the MNPI case, empirical orthogonal function (EOF) was used in the degree compression of the prediction error fields from the CGCM, whereas the AEC scheme was applied only to its first several EOF components for which the accumulative explained variance accounted for 80% of the total variance. This further improved the ACC of the independent sample hindcasts to 0.55 during the 7-yr period.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Barnett, T. P., and R. W. Preisendorfer, 1978: Multifield analog prediction of short-term climate fluctuations using a climate state vector. J. Atmos. Sci., 35, 1771–1787.
Cao Hongxing, 1993: Self-memory equation for atmospheric motion. Sci. China (Ser. B), 23, 104–112.
Chen Longxun, 1984: East Asian monsoon circulation system structure and its medium range changes. Acta Oceanol. Sinica, 6, 744–758.
Chou Jifan, 1974: A problem of using past data in numerical weather porecasting. Scientia Sinica, 17, 814–825.
Chou Jifan, 1986: Why and how to combine dynamics and statistics. Plateau Meteor., 5, 367–372. (in Chinese)
Feng Guolin, Cao Hongxing, Wei Fengying, et al., 2001: On area rainfall ensemble prediction and its application. Acta Meteor. Sinica, 59, 206–212. (in Chinese)
Feng Guolin and Dong Wenjie, 2003: Evaluation of the applicability of a retrospective scheme based on comparison with several difference schemes. Chinese Physics, 12, 1076–1086.
Feng Guolin, Dong Wenjie, and Jia Xiaojing, 2004: Application of a retrospective time integration scheme to the prediction of torrential rain. Chinese Physics, 13, 413–422.
Gu Zhenchao, 1958: On use of historical data in numerical weather prediction. Acta Meteor. Sinica, 29, 176–184. (in Chinese)
Guo Ling, He Jinhai, and Zhu Congwen, 2012: Evaluations of prior potential predictors for the summer rainfall in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. Chinese J. Atmos. Sci., 36, 337–349. (in Chinese)
Huang Jianping, Yi Yuhong, Wang Shaowu, et al., 1993: An analogue-dynamical long-range numerical weather prediction system incorporating historical evolution. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 119, 547–565.
Huang Ronghui and Sun Fengying, 1994: Impacts of the thermal state and the convective activities in the tropical western warm pool on the summer climate anomalies in East Asia. Scientia Atmos. Sinica, 18, 141–151. (in Chinese)
Jia Xiaolong, Chen Lijuan, Li Weijing, et al., 2010: Statistical downscaling based on BP-CCA: Predictability and application to the winter temperature and precipitation in China. Acta Meteor. Sinica, 68, 398–410. (in Chinese)
Liu Yunyun and Ding Yihui, 2009: Influence of the western North Pacific summer monsoon on summer rainfall over the Yangtze River basin. Chinese J. Atmos. Sci., 33, 1225–1237. (in Chinese)
Ren Hongli and Chou Jifan, 2005: An analogue error correction scheme combining statistics and dynamics. Acta Meteor. Sinica, 63, 988–993. (in Chinese)
Ren Hongli, Zhang Peiqun, Li Weijin, et al., 2006: A new method of dynamical analogue prediction based on multi-reference-state updating and its application. Acta Physica Sinica, 55, 4388–4396. (in Chinese)
Ren Hongli and Chou Jifan, 2007: Study on the strategy and methodology for dynamic-analogue prediction. Sci. China (Ser. D), 37, 1101–1109.
Ren Hongli and Chou Jifan, 2007: Study progress in prediction strategy and methology numerical model. Progress in Earth Science, 22, 376–385. (in Chinese)
Tao Shiyan, Zhao Sixiong, Zhou Xiaoping, et al., 2003: The research progress of the synoptic meteorology and synoptic forecast. Chinese J. Atmos. Sci., 27, 451–467. (in Chinese)
Tao Shiyan and Wei Jie, 2006: The westward, northward advance of the subtropical high over West Pacific in summer. J. Appl. Meteor. Sci., 17, 513–525. (in Chinese)
Trenberth, K. E., and J. W. Hurrell, 1994: Decadal atmosphere-ocean variations in the Pacific. Climate Dyn., 9, 303–319.
Trenberth, K. T., and T. J. Hoar, 1996: The 1990–1995 El Ni˜no-Southern Oscillation event: Longest on record. Geophys. Res. Lett., 23, 57–60.
Wang Huijun and Fan Ke, 2009: A new scheme for improving the seasonal prediction of summer precipitation anomalies. Wea. Forecasting, 24, 548–554.
Wang Zunya and Ding Yihui, 2008: Climatic characteristics of summer intraseasonal oscillations in wet/dry years over the mid-lower reaches of Yangtze River. J. Appl. Meteor. Sci., 19, 710–715. (in Chinese)
Wei Jie, Zhang Qingyun, and Tao Shiyan, 2005: The ensemble seasonal climate prediction for 2004 summer and its verification. Climatic Environ. Res., 10, 19–31. (in Chinese)
Wu Guoxiong and Liu Huanzhu, 1995: Neighbourhood response of rainfall to tropical sea surface temperature anomalies. Part I: Numerical experiment. Scientia Atmos. Sinica, 19, 422–434. (in Chinese)
Yu Haipeng, Huang Jianping, Li Weijing, et al., 2014: Development of the analogue-dynamical method for error correction of numerical forecasts. J. Meteor. Res., 28, 934–947, doi: 10.1007/s13351-014-4077-4.
Zhao Ping and Zhou Xiuji, 2006: Decadal variability of rainfall persistence time and rainbelt shift over eastern China in recent 40 years. J. Appl. Meteor. Sci., 17, 548–556. (in Chinese)
Zhao Zhenguo, 2001: The development of short-pange climate prediction technique in China. Shandong J. Meteor., 21, 4–7. (in Chinese)
Zhao Zhenguo and Liu Haibo, 2003: Progress in the operational technology of short-term climate prediction in China. Zhejiang J. Meteor., 24, 1–6, 46. (in Chinese)
Zheng Zhihai, Huang Jianping, and Ren Hongli, 2009: Analogue correction of errors based on seasonal climatic predictable components and numerical experiments. Acta Physica Sinica, 58, 7359–7367.
Zheng Zhihai, Feng Gulin, Chou Jifan, et al., 2010: Compression for freedom degree in numerical weather prediction and the error analogy. Chinese J. Appl. Meteor., 21, 139–148. (in Chinese)
Zhi Rong, Gong Zhiqiang, Zheng Zhihai, et al., 2009: Scale analysis of global temperature based on correlation matrix theory. Acta Physica Sinica, 58, 2113–2120. (in Chinese)
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Supported by the National (Key) Basic Research and Development (973) Program of China (2013CB430204), National Natural Science Foundation of China (41305100 and 41105055), and China Meteorological Administration Special Public Welfare Research Fund (GYHY201306021).
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Zhi, R., Wang, Q., Feng, G. et al. Using moving North Pacific index to improve rainy season rainfall forecast over the Yangtze River basin by analog error correction. J Meteorol Res 29, 627–638 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-015-4019-9
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-015-4019-9