Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Prediction of wintertime Northern Hemisphere blocking by the NCEP Climate Forecast System

  • Published:
Journal of Meteorological Research Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Daily output from the hindcasts by the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) is analyzed to understand CFSv2’s skill in forecasting wintertime atmospheric blocking in the Northern Hemisphere. Prediction skills of sector blocking, sector-blocking episodes, and blocking onset/decay are assessed with a focus on the Euro-Atlantic sector (20°W–45°E) and the Pacific sector (160°E–135°W). Features of associated circulation and climate patterns are also examined.

The CFSv2 well captures the observed features of longitudinal distribution of blocking activity, but underestimates blocking frequency and intensity and shows a decreasing trend in blocking frequency with increasing forecast lead time. Within 14-day lead time, the Euro-Atlantic sector blocking receives a higher skill than the Pacific sector blocking. Skillful forecast (taking the hit rate of 50% as a criterion) can be obtained up to 9 days in the Euro-Atlantic sector, which is slightly longer than that in the Pacific sector (7 days). The forecast skill of sector-blocking episodes is slightly lower than that of sector blocking in both sectors, and it is slightly higher in the Euro-Atlantic sector than in the Pacific sector. Compared to block onset, the skill for block decay is lower in the Euro-Atlantic sector, slightly higher in the Pacific sector during the early three days but lower after three days in lead time. In both the Euro-Atlantic and the Pacific sectors, a local dipole pattern in 500-hPa geopotential height associated with blocking is well presented in the CFSv2 prediction, but the wave-train like pattern that is far away from the blocking sector can only maintain in the forecast of relative short lead time. The CFSv2 well reproduces the observed characteristics of local temperature and precipitation anomalies associated with blocking.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Barnes, E. A., J. Slingo, and T. Woollings, 2012: A methodology for the comparison of blocking climatologies across indices, models, and climate scenarios. Climate Dyn., 38, 2467–2481.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Barriopedro, D., R. G. Herrera, and A. R. Lupo, 2006: A climatology of Northern Hemisphere blocking. J. Climate, 19, 1042–1063.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Berggren, R., B. Bolin, and C. G. Rossby, 1949: An aerological study of zonal motion, its perturbations, and break-down. Tellus, 2, 14–37.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Buehler, T., C. C. Raible, and T. F. Stocker, 2011: The relationship of winter season North Atlantic blocking frequencies to extreme cold or dry spells in the ERA-40. Tellus A, 63, 212–222.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cheung, H. N., W. Zhou, Y. Shao, et al., 2013: Observational climatology and characteristics of wintertime atmospheric blocking over Ural-Siberia. Climate Dyn., 41, 63–79.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Colucci, S. J., and D. P. Baumhefner, 1998: Numerical prediction of the onset of blocking: A case study with forecast ensembles. Mon. Wea. Rev., 126, 773–784.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Croci-Maspoli, M., C. Schwierz, and H. C. Davies, 2007: Atmospheric blocking: Space-time links to the NAO and PNA. Climate Dyn., 29, 713–725.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • D’Andrea, F., et al., 1998: Northern Hemisphere atmospheric blocking as simulated by 15 atmospheric general circulation models in the period 1979-1988. Climate Dyn., 14, 385–407.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Diao, Y. N., J. P. Li, and D. H. Luo, 2006: A new blocking index and its application: Blocking action in the Northern Hemisphere. J. Climate, 19, 4819–4839.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dole, R., et al., 2011: Was there a basis for anticipating the 2010 Russian heat wave? Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, doi: 10.1029/2010GL046582.

  • Giacomo, M., B. J. Hoskins, T. Woollings, 2013: Winter and summer Northern Hemisphere blocking in CMIP5 models. J. Climate, 26(18), 7044–7059.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • He Jinhai and Zhou Xueming, 1995: Numerical study of Ural blocking high’s effect upon Asian summer monsoon circulation and East China flood and drought. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 12(3), 361–370.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hinton, T. J., B. J. Hoskins, and G. M. Martin, 2009: The influence of tropical sea-surface temperatures and precipitation on North Pacific atmospheric blocking. Climate Dyn., 33, 549–563.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li Chongyin and Gu Wei, 2010: An analyzing study of the anomalous activity of blocking high over the Ural mountains in January 2008. Chinese J. Atmos. Sci., 34(5), 865–874. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Li Chao, Zhang Qingyun, Ji Liren, et al., 2012: Interannual variations of the blocking high over the Ural Mountains and its association with the AO/NAO in boreal winter. Acta Meteor. Sinica, 26(2), 163–175.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Masato, G., B. J. Hoskins, and T. J. Woollings, 2011: Wave-breaking characteristics of midlatitude blocking. Quart. J. Roy. Met. Soc., doi: 10.1002/qj.990.

    Google Scholar 

  • Matsueda, M., R. Mizuta, and S. Kusunoki, 2009: Future change in wintertime atmospheric blocking simulated using a 20-km-mesh atmospheric global circulation model. J. Geophys. Res., 114, doi: 10.1029/2009JD011919.

  • Pelly, J. L., and B. J. Hoskins, 2003a: How well does the ECMWF ensemble prediction system predict blocking? Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 129, 1683–1702.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • —, and —, 2003b: A new perspective on blocking. J. Atmos. Sci., 60, 743–755.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Renwick, J., and J. Wallace, 1996: Relationships between North Pacific wintertime blocking, El Niño, and the PNA pattern. Mon. Wea. Rev., 124, 2071–2076.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rex, D. F., 1950: Blocking action in the middle troposphere and its effects upon regional climate. II: The climatology of blocking action. Tellus, 2, 275–301.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Saha, S., S. Naliga, C. Thiaw, et al., 2006: The NCEP climate forecast system. J. Climate, 19, 3483–3517.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • —, et al., 2010: The NCEP Climate Forecast System reanalysis. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 91, 1015–1057.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • —, et al., 2013: The NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2, J. Climate, doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00823.1.

    Google Scholar 

  • Scaife, A. A., and J. R. Knight, 2008: Ensemble simulations of the cold European winter of 2005/6. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 134, 1647–1659.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Scaife, A., T. J. Woollings, J. Knight, et al., 2010: Atmospheric blocking and mean biases in climate models. J. Climate, 23, 6143–6152.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shabbar, A., J. Huang, and K. Higuchi, 2001: The relationship between the wintertime North Atlantic oscillation and blocking episodes in the North Atlantic. Int. J. Climatol., 21, 355–369.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tibaldi, S., and F. Molteni, 1990: On the operational predictability of blocking. Tellus, 42A, 343–365.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • —, E. Tosi, A. Navarra, and L. Pedulli, 1994: Northern and Southern Hemisphere seasonal variability of blocking frequency and predictability. Mon. Wea. Rev., 122, 1971–2003.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • —, P. Ruti, E. Tosi, et al., 1995: Operational predictability of winter blocking at ECMWF: An update. Ann. Geophys., 13, 305–317.

    Google Scholar 

  • Tracton, M. S., 1990: Predictability and its relationship to scale interaction processes in blocking. Mon. Wea. Rev., 118, 1666–1695.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Watson, J. C., and J. C. Stephen, 2002: Evaluation of ensemble predictions of blocking in the NCEP global spectral model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 130, 3008–3021.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Webster, P. J., V. E. Toma, and H. M. Kim, 2011: Were the 2010 Pakistan floods predictable? Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L04806, doi: 10.1029/2010GL046346.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang, W., P. Xie, S. H. Yoo, et al., 2010: An assessment of the surface climate in the NCEP climate forecast system reanalysis. Climate Dyn., 37, 1601–1620.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wilks, D. S., 1995: Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences: An Introduction. Academic Press, 467 pp.

    Google Scholar 

  • Woollings, T., B. Hoskins, M. Blackburn, et al., 2008: A new Rossby wave-breaking interpretation of the North Atlantic oscillation. J. Atmos. Sci., 65, 609–626.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • —, A. Charlton-Perez, S. Ineson, et al., 2010: Associations between stratospheric variability and tropospheric blocking. J. Geophys. Res., 115, D06108, doi:10.1029/2009JD012742.

    Google Scholar 

  • Xue, Y., B. Huang, Z. Z. Hu, et al., 2010: An assessment of oceanic variability in the NCEP climate forecast system reanalysis. Climate Dyn., 37, 2511–2539.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang Qingyun, Xuan Shouli, and Peng Jingbei, 2008: Relationship between Asian circulation in the midhigh latitude and snowfall over South China during La Nina events. Climatic Environ. Res., 13(4), 385–394. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, 100081, China

    Xiaolong Jia  (贾小龙) & Wenling Song  (宋文玲)

  2. Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China

    Xiaolong Jia  (贾小龙)

  3. School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, 510275, China

    Song Yang  (杨 崧)

  4. Inner Mongolia Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Hohhot, 010051, China

    Bin He  (贺 斌)

Authors
  1. Xiaolong Jia  (贾小龙)
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Song Yang  (杨 崧)
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Wenling Song  (宋文玲)
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Bin He  (贺 斌)
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Song Yang  (杨 崧).

Additional information

Supported by the National (Key) Basic Research and Development (973) Program of China (2010CB428606 and 2014CB950900), China Meteorological Administration Special Public Welfare Research Fund (GYHY201206017), National Science and Technology Support Program of China (2009BAC51B05), and LASW State Key Laboratory Special Fund (2013LASW-A05).

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Jia, X., Yang, S., Song, W. et al. Prediction of wintertime Northern Hemisphere blocking by the NCEP Climate Forecast System. Acta Meteorol Sin 28, 76–90 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-014-3085-8

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-014-3085-8

Key words

Search

Navigation