Abstract
Anthropogenic influences on regional climate and water resources over East Asia are simulated by using a regional model nested to a global model. The changes of land use/land cover (LULC) and CO2 concentration are considered. The results show that variations of LULC and CO2 concentration during the past 130 years caused a warming trend in many regions of East Asia. The most remarkable temperature increase occurred in Inner Mongolia, Northeast and North China, whereas temperature decreased in Gansu Province and north of Sichuan Province. LULC and CO2 changes over the past 130 years resulted in a decreasing trend of precipitation in the Huaihe River valley, Shandong Byland, and Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, but precipitation increased along the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, the middle reaches of the Yellow River, and parts of South China. This pattern of precipitation change with changes in surface evapotranspiration may have caused a more severe drought in the lower reaches of the Yellow River and the Huaihe River valley. The drought trend, however, weakened in the mid and upper reaches of the Yellow River valley, and the Yangtze River valley floods were increasing. In addition, changes in LULC and CO2 concentration during the past 130 years led to adjustments in the East Asian monsoon circulation, which further affected water vapor transport and budget, making North China warm and dry, the Sichuan basin cold and wet, and East China warm and wet.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Anders, I., and B. Rockel, 2009: The influence of prescribed soil type distribution on the representation of present climate in a regional climate model. Climate Dyn., 33, 177–186.
Cha, D. H., Lee D. K., and Hong S. Y., 2008: Impact of boundary layer processes on seasonal simulation of the East Asian summer monsoon using a Regional Climate Model. Meteor. Atmos. Phys., 100, 53–72.
Chang, H. I., A. Kumar, D. Niyogi, et al., 2009: The role of land surface processes on the mesoscale simulation of the July 26, 2005 heavy rain event over Mumbai, India. Glob. Planet. Change, 12, doi: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2008.005.
Chen, F., and J. Dudhia, 2001: Coupling an advanced land—surface/hydrology model with the Penn State/NCAR MM5 modeling system. Part II: Preliminary model validation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 129, 587–604.
Cherchi, A., and A. Navarra, 2007: Sensitivity of the Asian summer monsoon to the horizontal resolution: differences between AMIP-type and coupled model experiments. Climate Dyn., 28, 273–290.
Christensen, J. H., B. Hewitson, A. Busuioc, et al., 2007: Regional Climate Projections, Chapter 11 of Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, et al., Eds. Contribution of WGI to the IPCC AR4. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 996 pp.
Diaconescu, E. P., R. Laprise, and L. Sushama, 2007: The impact of lateral boundary data errors on the simulated climate of a nested regional climate model. Climate Dyn., 28, 333–350.
Ding Yihui, 2002: The Evaluation of Environment Variations in West of China. Science Press, Beijing, 239. (in Chinese)
Fu, C. B., 2003: Potential impacts of human-induced land cover change on East Asian monsoon. Glob. Planet. Change, 37, 219–229.
Gao, X. J., Luo Y., Lin W. T., et al., 2003: Simulation of effects of land use change on climate in China by a regional climate model. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 20, 583–592.
—, Xu Y., Zhao Z. C., et al., 2006: On the role of resolution and topography in the simulation of East Asian precipitation. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 86, 173–185, doi: 10.1007/s00704-005-0214-4.
Guo, Y. F., Yu Y. Q., Liu X. Y., et al., 2001: Simulation of climate change induced by CO2 increasing for East Asia with IAP/LASG GOALS model. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 18, 53–66.
Hansen, J., M. Sato, R. Ruedy, et al., 2007: Climate simulations for 1880–2003 with GISS model. Climate Dyn., 29, 661–696.
Hegerl, G. C., T. J. Crowley, W. T. Hyde, et al., 2007: Detection of human influence on a new, validated 1500-year temperature reconstruction. J. Climate, 20, 650–666.
Jiao, Y. J., and C. Jones, 2007: Comparison studies of cloud- and convection-related processes simulated by the Canadian regional climate model over the Pacific Ocean. Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 4168–4186.
Leung, L. R., and S. J. Ghan, 1995: A subgrid parameterization of orographic precipitation. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 52, 95–118.
Li, H., Feng L., and Zhou T., 2010: Changes of July–August climate extremes over China under CO2 doubling scenario projected by CMIP3 models for IPCC AR4. Part I: Precipitation. Adv. Atmos. Sci., doi:10.1007/s00376-010-0013-4.
Liang, X. Z., and E. K. Kenneth, 2001: Development of a regional climate model for U.S. Midwest applications. Part I: Sensitivity to buffer ozone treatment. J. Climate, 14, 4363–4378.
Liu Chunzhen, Ying Aiwen, and Yan Kai, 1996: The research of sensitivity and fragibility in water resource of China. The Global Changes and the Future Survival Environments in China. Fu Congbin and Yan Zhongwei, Eds., China Meteorological Press, Beijing, 335 pp. (in Chinese)
Liu, H., 1997: Impacts of land surface on climate of July and onset of summer monsoon: A study with an AGCM plus SSiB. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 14, 290–308.
Liu Guowei, 1997: The Atmosphere Process in Hydrologic Cycle. China Science Press, Beijing, 245 pp. (in Chinese)
O’ishi, R., and A. Abe-Ouchi, 2009: Influence of dynamic vegetation on climate change arising from increasing CO2. Climate Dyn., 33, 645–663.
Qian, Y. F., Zheng Y. Q., Zhang Y., et al., 2003: Responses of China’s summer monsoon climate to snow anomaly over the Tibetan Plateau. Int. J. Climatol., 23, 593–613.
Qin Dahe and Chen Yiyu, 2005: The climate system and its evolutions. The Evolutions of Climate and Environment in China. Qin Dahe and Chen Yiyu, Eds., Science Press, Beijing, 959 pp. (in Chinese)
Shindell, D. T., I. I. Hiram Levy, and M. D. Schwarzkopf, 2008: Multi-model projections of climate change from short-lived emissions due to human activities. J. Geophys. Res., 113, D11109.
Solman, S. A., M. N. Nunez, and M. F. Cabre, 2007: Regional climate change experiments over southern South America. Part I: present climate. Climate Dyn., doi: 10.1007/s00382-007-0304-3.
Song, C. Q., and Leng S. Y., 2000: The important science problems for regional development. Adv. Natural Sci., 10, 763–767.
Steiner, A. L., J. S. Pal, and S. A. Rauscher, 2009: Land surface coupling in regional climate simulations of the West African monsoon. Climate Dyn., doi: 10.1007/s00382-009-0543-6.
Tang Jianping, Su Bingkai, and Zhao Ming, 2003: The combination simulations of multi-parameter schemes in MM5v3 for regional simulation in East Asia. Journal of Nanjing University, 39, 871–880. (in Chinese)
Tett, S. F. B., R. Betts, and T. J. Crowley, 2007: The impact of natural and anthropogenic forcings on climate and hydrology since 1550. Climate Dyn., 28, 3–34.
Trusilova, K., M. Jung, and G. Churkina, 2008: Urbanization impacts on the climate in Europe: numerical experiments by the PSU-NCAR mesoscale model (MM5). J. Appl. Meteor. Climatal., 47, 1442–1455.
Wang Shaowu and Dong Guangrong, 2002: The features and evolutions of environments in west of China. The Evaluation of Environment Variations in West of China. Wang Shaowu and Dong Guangrong, Eds., Science Press, Beijing, 248 pp. (in Chinese)
Watson, R. T., 2001: IPCC, Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report. Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 86 pp.
Willett, K. M., N. P. Gillett, and P. D. Jones, 2007: Attribution of observed surface humidity changes to human influence. Nature, 449, 710–712.
Xie, P. P., Chen M. Y., Yang S., et al., 2007: A gaugebased analysis of daily precipitation over East Asia. J. Hydrometeorology, 8(3), 607–626.
Xu, Y., Gao X. J., Shen Y., et al., 2009: A daily temperature dataset over China and its application in validating a RCM simulation. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 26(4), 763–772.
Xue, Y., 1996: The impact of desertification in the Mongolian and the Inner Mongolian grassland on the regional climate. J. Climate, 9, 2173–2189.
Yu Ge, Xue Bin, Liu Jian, Cheng Xing, et al., 2001: Lake Records from China and the Palaeoclimate Dynamics. China Meteorological Press, Beijing, 228 pp. (in Chinese)
Zhang, H. Q., and Gao X. J., 2009: On the atmospheric dynamical responses to land-use change in East Asian monsoon region. Climate Dyn., 33, 409–426.
Zhang, J. C., 1999: Water recycling and climate background. Advances of Water Sciences, 10, 265–300.
Zheng, Y. Q., Qian Y. F., Yu G., et al., 2002a: Simulations of the effects of soil temperature and humidity disturbances on regional climate of China. Meteor. Atmos. Phy., 81, 85–102.
—, Yu G., and Qian Y. F., 2002b: Simulations of regional climatic effects of vegetation change in China. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 128, 2089–2115.
—, —, Wang S. M., et al., 2003: Simulations of LGM climate of East Asia by a regional climate model. Sci. China (Series D), 46(8), 753–764.
—, —, Wang S. M., et al., 2004: Simulation of Palaeoclimates over East Asia at 6 ka and 21 ka B.P. by a regional climate model. Climate Dyn., 23, 513–529.
—, Qian Z. C., He H. R., et al., 2007: Simulations of water resource environmental changes in China during the last 20000 years by a regional climate model. Glob. Planet. Change, 55, 284–300.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Supported by the National Key Basic Research and Development (973) Program of China (2010CB428505) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (40875067).
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Zheng, Y., Long, T., Zeng, X. et al. Simulations of water resource changes in eastern and central China in the past 130 years by a regional climate model. Acta Meteorol Sin 25, 593–610 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-011-0505-x
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-011-0505-x