, Volume 45, Issue 8, pp 895–903 | Cite as

Generating an agricultural risk map based on limited ecological information: A case study using Sicyos angulatus

  • Takeshi Osawa
  • Shigenori Okawa
  • Shunji Kurokawa
  • Shinichiro Ando


In this study, we propose a method for estimating the risk of agricultural damage caused by an invasive species when species-specific information is lacking. We defined the “risk” as the product of the invasion probability and the area of potentially damaged crop for production. As a case study, we estimated the risk imposed by an invasive weed, Sicyos angulatus, based on simple cellular simulations and governmental data on the area of crop that could potentially be damaged in Miyagi Prefecture, Japan. Simulation results revealed that the current distribution range was sufficiently accurate for practical purposes. Using these results and records of crop areas, we present risk maps for S. angulatus in agricultural fields. Managers will be able to use these maps to rapidly establish a management plan with minimal cost. Our approach will be valuable for establishing a management plan before or during the early stages of invasion.


Agricultural risk Alien invasive species Management strategy Risk mapping Risk management Virtual ecology 



We would like to thank Dr. M. Akasaka for giving us good suggestions. Two anonymous reviewers gave us many constructive suggestions. We also would like to thank Dr. D. Sprague for checking English.


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Copyright information

© Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences 2016

Authors and Affiliations

  • Takeshi Osawa
    • 1
  • Shigenori Okawa
    • 2
  • Shunji Kurokawa
    • 3
  • Shinichiro Ando
    • 2
  1. 1.National Institute for Agro-environmental SciencesTsukubaJapan
  2. 2.Miyagi Prefectural Furukawa Agricultural Experiment StationFurukawaJapan
  3. 3.NARO Agricultural Research CenterTsukubaJapan

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