Perceptions of risk in communities near parks in an African biodiversity hotspot
- 678 Downloads
Understanding conservation and livelihood threats in park landscapes is important to informing conservation policy. To identify threats, we examined perceived risks of residents living near three national parks in Uganda. We used cross-sectional household data to document, rank, and measure severity of perceived risks. Three risk categories, grouped into protected area, climate, and health, were cited by 80 % of respondents and received the highest severity scores. Elevation, proximity to the park, local forest loss, recent population change, and measures of poverty were the most important variables in predicting whether or not an individual identified these risks as the most or second most severe risk. Health issues were cited throughout the landscape, while problems attributed to climate (mainly insufficient rainfall) were reported to be most severe farther from the park. Increased population density was associated with increased perceived risk of health challenges, but decreased perceived risks attributed to the park and climate. Participatory risk mapping provides the opportunity to make standardized comparisons across sites, to help identify commonalities and differences, as a first step to examining the degree to which conservation management might address some of these local challenges and where mitigation techniques might be transferable between different sites or conflict scenarios.
KeywordsRisk perception Protected areas Population growth Albertine Rift Climate variability
This research was supported by the National Science Foundation (1114977) and National Geographic Committee on Research and Exploration grants. We are grateful to our Ugandan field assistants for their hard work and dedication, Irene Feretti and Brian Devine for data entry, and our study participants. The authors give a big shout out to Tim Baird for his assistance. Makerere University Biological Field Station, Uganda Wildlife Authority, Uganda National Council for Science and Technology, and many local officials provided useful assistance and granted permission for this research.
- Breiman, L. 1996. Out-of-bag estimation. Technical report, Department of Statistics, University of California, Berkeley.Google Scholar
- Brockington, D. 2002. Fortress conservation: the preservation of the Mkomazi Game Reserve, Tanzania. Bloomington: Indiana University Press.Google Scholar
- Campbell, A., S. Clark, L. Coad, L. Miles, K. Bolt, and D. Roe. 2008. Protecting the future: Carbon, forests, protected areas and local livelihoods. Cambridge: UNEP World Conservation Monitoring Centre.Google Scholar
- DFID. 1999. Sustainable Livelihoods Guidance Sheets. Retrieved November 15, 2010, from National Strategies for Sustainable Development: http://www.nssd.net/references/SustLiveli/DFIDapproach.htm#Guidance.
- Hair, J.F., R.E. Anderson, R.L. Tatham, and W.C. Black. 1995. Multivariate data analysis: with readings. Englewood Cliffs: Prentice-Hall.Google Scholar
- Hansen, M.C., P.V. Potapov, R. Moore, M. Hancher, S.A. Turubanova, A. Tyukavina, D. Thau, S.V. Stehman, S.J. Goetz, T.R. Loveland, A. Kommareddy, A. Egorov, L. Chini, C.O. Justice, and J.R.G. Tonshend. 2013. High-resolution global maps of 21st-century forest cover change. Science 342: 850–853.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Jones, Z.M., Linder, F. 2015. edarf: Exploratory data analysis using random forests. R package version 0.1.Google Scholar
- Kirtman, B., S.B. Power, J.A. Adedoyin, G.J. Boer, R. Bojariu, I. Camilloni, F.J. Doblas-Reyes, A.M. Fiore, M. Kimoto, G.A. Meehl, M. Prather, A. Sarr, C. Schär, R. Sutton, G.J. van Oldenborgh, G. Vecchi, and H.J. Wang. 2013. Near-term climate change: projections and predictability. In Climate change 2013: The physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, ed. T.F. Stocker, D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex, and P.M. Midgley. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
- Labbé, J., J.D. Ford, L. Berrang-Ford, B. Donnelly, S. Lwasa, D.B. Namanya, S. Twesigomwe, I.H.A.C.C. Research Team, and S.L. Harper. 2015. Vulnerability to the health effects of climate variability in rural southwestern Uganda. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change. doi: 10.1007/s11027-015-9635-2.Google Scholar
- Naimi, B. 2015. Usdm: Uncertainty analysis for species distribution models. R package version 1.1-15. https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=usdm.
- Neumann, R.P. 1998. Imposing wilderness: struggles over livelihood and nature preservation in Africa. Berkeley: University of California Press.Google Scholar
- Niang, I., Ruppel, O.C., Abdrabo, M.A., Essel, A., Lennard, C., Padgham, J., Urquhart, P. 2014. Africa. Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects. In Contribution of working group II to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, eds Field, C.B., Barros, V.R., Dokken, D.J., Mach, K.J., Mastrandrea, M.D., Bilir, T.E., Chatterjee, M., Ebi, K.L., Estrada, Y.O., Genova, R.C., Girma, B., Kissel, E.S., Levy, A.N., MacCracken, S., Mastrandrea, P.R., White, L.L. 1199-1265, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
- Oates, J.F. 1999. Myth and reality in the rain forest. Berkeley: University of California Press.Google Scholar
- Patz, J.A., P. Daszak, G.M. Tabor, A.A. Aguirre, A. Pearl, J. Epstein, N.D. Wolfe, A.M. Kilpatrick, J. Foufopoulos, D. Molyneux, and D.J. Bradley. 2004. Unhealthy landscapes: Policy recommendations on land use change and infectious disease emergence. Environmental Health Perspectives 112: 1092–1098.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Population Reference Bureau (PRB). 2012. 2012 World Population Data Sheet. Washington DC. http://www.prb.org/pdf09/09wpds_eng.pdf].
- R Core Team. 2015. R: A language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria. URL https://www.R-project.org/.
- Terborgh, J., and C. van Schaik. 2002. Why the World Needs Parks. In Making parks work: Strategies for preserving tropical nature, ed. T. Terborgh, C. van Schaik, L. Davenport, and M. Rao, 3–14. Washington D.C.: Island Press.Google Scholar
- Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBoS). 2005. The 2002 Uganda population and housing census, main report. Kampala: Uganda Bureau of Statistics.Google Scholar
- Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBoS). 2014. National population and housing census 2014: Provisional results. Kampala: Uganda Bureau of Statistics.Google Scholar
- Uganda and East Africa High Commission. 1961. Uganda census, 1959, African population. Nairobi: Statistics Branch, Ministry of Economic Affairs.Google Scholar
- Uganda Wildlife Authority (UWA) 2012. UWA official website: Murchison Falls National Park: http://www.ugandawildlife.org/explore-our-parks/parks-by-name-a-z/murchisonfalls-national-park.