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AMBIO

, Volume 42, Issue 5, pp 577–586 | Cite as

Modeling Past and Future Acidification of Swedish Lakes

  • Filip Moldan
  • Bernard J. Cosby
  • Richard F. Wright
Report

Abstract

Decades of acid deposition have caused acidification of lakes in Sweden. Here we use data for 3000 lakes to run the acidification model MAGIC and estimate historical and future acidification. The results indicate that beginning in about 1920 a progressively larger number of lakes in Sweden fell into the category of “not naturally acidified” (∆pH > 0.4). The peak in acidification was reached about 1985; since then many lakes have recovered in response to lower levels of acid deposition. Further recovery from acidification will occur by the year 2030 given implementation of agreed legislation for emissions of sulphur (S) and nitrogen (N) in Europe. But the number of catchments with soils being depleted in base cations will increase slightly. MAGIC-reconstructed history of acidification of lakes in Sweden agrees well with information on fish populations. Future acidification of Swedish lakes can be influenced by climate change as well as changes in forest harvest practices.

Keywords

Sweden Lake Acidification Model 

Notes

Acknowledgments

This work is based on re-calibration of MAGIC to Swedish lakes for revision of the “MAGIC-bibliotek” with contribution from Climate Change and Environmental Objectives (CLEO) program, both financed by the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency. We thank Jens Fölster and colleagues at SLU for help with the data for specific runoff, land use, lake chemistry and soil chemistry. We thank Maximilian Posch of the Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE) for assistance with deposition data. We thank Karin Hansen, IVL, for working up the estimates of past, present, and future forest harvest practices.

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Copyright information

© Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences 2012

Authors and Affiliations

  • Filip Moldan
    • 1
  • Bernard J. Cosby
    • 2
  • Richard F. Wright
    • 3
  1. 1.IVL Swedish Environmental Research InstituteGothenburgSweden
  2. 2.Department of Environmental SciencesUniversity of VirginiaCharlottesvilleUSA
  3. 3.Norwegian Institute for Water ResearchOsloNorway

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