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Modeling Past and Future Acidification of Swedish Lakes

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Abstract

Decades of acid deposition have caused acidification of lakes in Sweden. Here we use data for 3000 lakes to run the acidification model MAGIC and estimate historical and future acidification. The results indicate that beginning in about 1920 a progressively larger number of lakes in Sweden fell into the category of “not naturally acidified” (∆pH > 0.4). The peak in acidification was reached about 1985; since then many lakes have recovered in response to lower levels of acid deposition. Further recovery from acidification will occur by the year 2030 given implementation of agreed legislation for emissions of sulphur (S) and nitrogen (N) in Europe. But the number of catchments with soils being depleted in base cations will increase slightly. MAGIC-reconstructed history of acidification of lakes in Sweden agrees well with information on fish populations. Future acidification of Swedish lakes can be influenced by climate change as well as changes in forest harvest practices.

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Acknowledgments

This work is based on re-calibration of MAGIC to Swedish lakes for revision of the “MAGIC-bibliotek” with contribution from Climate Change and Environmental Objectives (CLEO) program, both financed by the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency. We thank Jens Fölster and colleagues at SLU for help with the data for specific runoff, land use, lake chemistry and soil chemistry. We thank Maximilian Posch of the Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE) for assistance with deposition data. We thank Karin Hansen, IVL, for working up the estimates of past, present, and future forest harvest practices.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute, Box 53021, 400 14, Gothenburg, Sweden

    Filip Moldan

  2. Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, P.O. Box 400123, Charlottesville, VA, 22904-4123, USA

    Bernard J. Cosby

  3. Norwegian Institute for Water Research, Gaustadalleen 21, 0349, Oslo, Norway

    Richard F. Wright

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  1. Filip Moldan
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  2. Bernard J. Cosby
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Correspondence to Filip Moldan.

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Moldan, F., Cosby, B.J. & Wright, R.F. Modeling Past and Future Acidification of Swedish Lakes. AMBIO 42, 577–586 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-012-0360-8

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-012-0360-8

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