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A North Sea and Baltic Sea Model Ensemble Eutrophication Assessment

AMBIO volume 39, pages 59–69 (2010)Cite this article

Abstract

A method to combine observations and an ensemble of ecological models is suggested to produce a eutrophication assessment. Using threshold values and methodology from the Oslo and Paris Commissions (OSPAR) and the Helsinki Commission (HELCOM), four models are combined to assess eutrophication for the Baltic and North Seas for the year 2006. The assessment indicates that the entire southeastern part of the North Sea, the Kattegat, the Danish Straits, the Gulf of Finland, and the Gulf of Riga as well as parts of the Arkona Basin, the Bornholm Basin, and the Baltic proper may be classified as problem areas. The Bothnian Bay and parts of the Baltic proper, the Bornholm Basin, and the Arkona Basin are classified as potential problem areas. This method is a useful tool for the classification of eutrophication; however, the results depend on the threshold values, and further work is needed within both OSPAR and HELCOM to harmonize these values.

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Acknowledgments

The authors wish to thank Tapani Stipa (FIMR) and Ian Sehested Hansen (DHI) for providing the BalEco and MIKE III model results, and Kari Eilola (SMHI) for good ideas, discussions, and support in the development of the method used in this study. This study was supported by the Nordic Councils Air and Sea group through the BANSAI project.

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Affiliations

  1. Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Oceanografiska enheten, Sven Källfelts gata 15, 426 71, Västra Frölunda, Sweden

    Elin Almroth

  2. Institute of Marine Research, Pb1870 Nordnes, 5817, Bergen, Norway

    Morten D. Skogen

Authors
  1. Elin Almroth
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  2. Morten D. Skogen
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Correspondence to Elin Almroth.

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Almroth, E., Skogen, M.D. A North Sea and Baltic Sea Model Ensemble Eutrophication Assessment. AMBIO 39, 59–69 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-009-0006-7

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-009-0006-7

Keywords

  • Eutrophication
  • OSPAR CP
  • Assessment
  • Modelling
  • North Sea
  • Baltic Sea