Skip to main content

World War III analysis using signed social networks

Abstract

In the recent period of time with a lot of social platforms emerging, the relationships among various units can be framed with respect to either positive, negative or no relation. These units can be individuals, countries or others that form the basic structural component of a signed network. These signed networks picture a dynamic characteristic of the graph so formed allowing only few combinations of signs that brings the structural balance theorem in picture. Structural balance theory affirms that signed social networks tend to be organized so as to avoid conflictual situations, corresponding to cycles of unstable relations. The aim of structural balance in networks is to find proper partitions of nodes that guarantee equilibrium in the system allowing only few combination triangles with signed edges to be permitted in graph. Most of the works in this field of networking have either explained the importance of signed graph or have applied the balance theorem and tried to solve problems. Following the recent time trends with each nation emerging to be superior and competing to be the best, the probable doubt of happening of World War III (WW III) comes into every individuals mind. Nevertheless, our paper aims at answering some of the interesting questions on WW III. In this paper, we have worked with the creation of a signed graph picturing the WW III participating countries as nodes and have predicted the best possible coalition of countries that will be formed during war. Also, we have visually depicted the number of communities that will be formed in this war and the participating countries in each communities. Our paper involves extensive analysis on the various parameters influencing the above predictions and also creation of a new dataset of World War III that contains the pairwise relationship data of countries with various parameters influencing prediction. This paper also validates and analyzes the predicted result.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution.

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4

Notes

  1. https://tradingeconomics.com/about-te.aspx, Y1 (online). Available: https://tradingeconomics.com/about-te.aspx

  2. https://oec.world/en/resources/about, Y2 (online). Available: 3.https://oec.world/en/resources/about

  3. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_diplomatic_missions_of_India, Y3 (online). Available: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_diplomatic_missions_of_India

  4. https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries, Y9 (online). Available: https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries

  5. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buddhism_and_violence, Y11 (online). Available: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buddhism_and_violence

  6. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vvyn\(_8\)mpqYg, Y12 (online). Available: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vvyn_8mpqYg

  7. https://www.cfr.org/interactives/sunni-shia-divide, Y13 (online). Available: https://www.cfr.org/interactives/sunni-shia-divide#/

  8. https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/fikraforum/view/religion-and-the-israel-palestinian-conflict-cause-consequence-and-cure, Y15 (online). Available: https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/fikraforum/view/religion-and-the-israel-palestinian-conflict-cause-consequence-and-cure

  9. https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/moral-equivalence-is-our-new-religion, Y16 (online). Available: https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/moral-equivalence-is-our-new-religion

  10. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catholic_Church_and_Judaism, Y17 (online). Available: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catholic_Church_and_Judaism

  11. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindu, Y18 (online). Available: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindu%E2%80%93Islamic_relations#Hindu-Islamic_relations_in_India

  12. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_involving_India, Y4 (online). Available: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_involving_India

  13. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Open_border, Y5 (online). Available: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Open_border

  14. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_treaties, Y6 (online). Available: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_treaties

  15. https://fixer.io/about, Y7 (online). Available: https://fixer.io/about

  16. https://www.icj-cij.org/en/list-of-all-cases, Y8 (online). Available: https://www.icj-cij.org/en/list-of-all-cases

  17. https://github.com/worldWarIII-scomp/WorldWarIII_Scomp

References

  • Liu H, Qu C, Niu Y, Wang G (2020) The evolution of structural balance in time-varying signed networks. Future Gener Comput Syst 102:403–408. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.future.2019.08.023

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Aref S (2019) Signed network structural analysis and applications with a focus on balance theory. CoRR, vol abs/1901.06845 (online). Available: arXiv: 1901.06845

  • Richards W (2011) Social network models. In: 2011 IEEE third international conference on privacy, security, risk and trust and 2011 IEEE third international conference on social computing, pp 564–567

  • Aarstad J, Ness H, Haugland SA (2013) In what ways are small-world and scale-free networks interrelated?. In: 2013 IEEE international conference on industrial technology (ICIT), pp 1483–1487

  • Amati V, Lomi A, Mira A (2018) Social network modeling. Annu Rev Stat Appl 5(1):343–369. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-statistics-031017-100746

    MathSciNet  Article  Google Scholar 

  • David E, Jon K (2010) Networks, crowds, and markets: reasoning about a highly connected world. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Du H, He X, Feldman MW (2016) Structural balance in fully signed networks. Complex 21(S1):497–511. https://doi.org/10.1002/cplx.21764

    MathSciNet  Article  Google Scholar 

  • Doreian P, Mrvar A (2015) Structural balance and signed international relations. J Soc Struct 16:1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Galimberti E, Madeddu C, Bonchi F, Ruffo G (2019) Visualizing structural balance in signed networks. In: Complex networks and their applications VIII—volume 2 proceedings of the eighth international conference on complex networks and their applications complex networks 2019, Lisbon, Portugal. 10–12 Dec 2019. Cherifi H, Gaito S, Mendes JF, Moro E, Rocha LM (eds) Series Studies in computational intelligence, vol 882, pp. 53–65. Springer (online). Available: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-36683-4_5

  • Tzeng R-C, Ordozgoiti B, Gionis A (2020) Discovering conflicting groups in signed networks. Adv Neural Inf Process Syst, vol 33

  • Aref S, Neal Z (2020) Detecting coalitions by optimally partitioning signed networks of political collaboration. Sci Rep 10(1):1–10

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Doreian P, Mrvar A (2009) Partitioning signed social networks. Social Netw 31(1):1–11

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang S, Liu J, Jin Y (2020) Robust structural balance in signed networks using a multiobjective evolutionary algorithm. IEEE Comput Intell Mag 15(2):24–35

    MathSciNet  Article  Google Scholar 

  • Morrison M, Gabbay M (2019) Community detectability and structural balance dynamics in signed networks. CoRR, vol abs/1912.07772, 2019 (online). Available: arXiv: 1912.07772

  • Fang L, Yang Q, Wang J, Lei W (2016) Signed network label propagation algorithm with structural balance degree for community detection. In Inclusive smart cities and digital health—14th international conference on smart homes and health telematics, ICOST 2016, Wuhan, China, 25–27 May 2016. Proceedings. Chang CK, Chiari L, Cao Y, Jin H, Mokhtari M, Aloulou H (eds) series Lecture Notes in Computer Science, vol 9677. Springer, 2016, pp 427–435 (online). Available: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-39601-9_38

  • Anchuri P, Magdon-Ismail M (2012) Communities and balance in signed networks: a spectral approach. In: 2012 IEEE/ACM international conference on advances in social networks analysis and mining, IEEE, 2012, pp 235–242

  • Chu L, Wang Z, Pei J, Wang J, Zhao Z, Chen E (2016) Finding gangs in war from signed networks. In Krishnapuram B, Shah M, Smola AJ, Aggarwal CC, Shen D, Rastogi R (eds) Proceedings of the 22nd ACM SIGKDD international conference on knowledge discovery and data mining, San Francisco, CA, USA, 13–17 Aug 2016, ACM, 2016, pp 1505–1514 (online). Available: https://doi.org/10.1145/2939672.2939855

  • Reuveny R (2001) Bilateral import, export, and conflict/cooperation simultaneity. Int Stud Q 45(1):131–158 (online). Available: http://www.jstor.org/stable/3096104

  • Murthy RS, Lakshminarayana R (2006) Mental health consequences of war: a brief review of research findings. World Psychiatry 5(1):25

    Google Scholar 

  • Cohen S P, Azar EE (1981) From war to peace: the transition between Egypt and Israel. J Conflict Resol 25(1):87–114 (online). Available: http://www.jstor.org/stable/173749

  • Sanjuán A M (2005) Venezuela and the Colombian conflict: tensions, problems, and uncertainties. Elusive Peace Int Nation Local Dimen Conflict Colombia. Springer, pp 97–116

  • Boutellis A (2013) Chad and the Central African Republic. Respond Conflict Africa. Springer, pp 121–144

  • Wang B (2007) The Iraq war and the new Iran–Iraq relations. J Middle East Islamic Stud Asia 1(1):66–77. https://doi.org/10.1080/19370679.2007.12023104

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fulton J (2020) China-Saudi Arabia relations through the cooperation pattern. Asian J Middle East Islamic Stud 14(4):516–527. https://doi.org/10.1080/25765949.2020.1841991

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

This work has been done as a part of the coursework at IIT Ropar. We would like to thank our instructor, “Dr. Sudarshan Iyengar,” for his unique teaching methodology and motivation behind this paper.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Shivam Gupta.

Additional information

Publisher's Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Chowdhury, R.R., Gupta, S. & Chede, S. World War III analysis using signed social networks. Soc. Netw. Anal. Min. 11, 107 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13278-021-00822-3

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Revised:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13278-021-00822-3