Characterization of the cohort
Patient characteristics and oncological treatment are presented in Table 1 and the flowchart of the cohort with included and excluded patients in Fig. 1.
There was no gender difference between the main cohort and subcohort I and II (p = 0.964). There was a difference in gender distribution between controls and the main cohort (p = 0.02), and the controls were younger than the CLM patients (p = 0.01).
The majority of the patients received oncological treatment for their CLM prior liver surgery (neoadjuvant or conversion therapy) (n = 53, 56 %, Table 2). Standard regimens with intravenous FLOX (5-fluorouracil, leucovorin and oxaliplatin), FLV (5-fluorouracil, leucovorin) and FLIRI (5-fluorouracil, irinotecan) were used and in some cases also combined with antibody-based targeted treatment (bevacizumab, cetuximab and panitumumab). The majority of patients with rectal cancer were given radiotherapy (n = 27, 61 %). Rectal cancer with locally advanced primary tumours were usually treated with neoadjuvant oral capecitabine or intravenous FLOX in combination with radiotherapy (n = 19, 20 %). Fifteen patients underwent liver surgery before the removal of the primary tumour (“liver first”). The median follow-up time was 26.4 months for the study cohort.
Table 2 Oncological treatment
High preoperative circulating levels of type IV collagen in patients with CLM
Patients with CLM (n = 94) had significantly higher preoperative levels of circulating type IV collagen (170.2 ± 72.5 ng/ml) when compared to healthy controls (n = 118) (104.3 ± 33 ng/ml) (p = 0.001) (Fig. 2a). There were no significant correlations between the circulating levels of type IV collagen in the CLM group and gender (p = 0.89), age (p = 0.32), the localization of the primary CRC (p = 0.48), T stage (p = 0.69), N stage (p = 0.13), CEA levels (p = 0.14), size of the largest CLM (p = 0.14), number of CLM (p = 0.075) and time interval from CRC to CLM (p = 0.09). There was no relation between CEA and age (p = 0.10) or gender (p = 0.35) in the CLM group.
In the control group, there was a small but significant difference in the circulating type IV collagen levels related to age (p = 0.001), but not correlation between CEA and age (p = 0.46). Neither CEA nor type IV collagen levels were related to gender in the control group (p = 0.76 and p = 0.98, respectively). Levels of the two tumour markers in relation to age and gender for both groups are shown in Supplementary Table 2a, b.
High levels of collagen IV in patients with recurrent CLM
The 27 patients with a long-term follow-up postoperative sample (subcohort I) were divided into a group with recurrent disease (n = 17) and patients with no evidence of recurrent disease (n = 10). Patient characteristics are found in Table 1. All measured values of type IV collagen, recurrent disease and the site of recurrence for subcohort II are shown in Supplementary Table 3. Patients with recurrent disease (n = 17), including all types of recurrences, had significantly higher levels of type IV collagen (200.1 ± 136.9 ng/ml), compared to the patients with no recurrent disease (n = 10) (82.3 ± 13.7 ng/ml) (p = 0.001) (Fig. 2b).
Fourteen (83 %) of the patients with recurrent disease had CLM and presented with high collagen levels (214 ± 145 ng/ml) compared to the group with no recurrent disease (82.3 ± 13.7 ng/ml) (p = 0.001). The three patients (18 %) with a non-liver recurrence had a local rectal recurrence with a lymph node metastasis, unclassified ovarian mass or lung metastasis only (Fig. 2b).
Preoperative circulating type IV collagen versus CEA levels in patients with CLM
The ROC analysis revealed that type IV collagen is not superior to CEA alone in detecting CLM (Fig. 3a). When combining both markers as independent variables in a logistic regression, the AUC was significantly increased when compared to either CEA or type IV collagen alone (p = 0.001 and p < 0.001, respectively) (Fig. 3a, Table 3). Values of sensitivity, specificity and accuracy for type IV collagen and CEA are presented in Table 4. The calculated optimal cutoff for type IV collagen and CEA in the ROC was 115 and 2.8 ng/ml, respectively. This cutoff for CEA differs from the clinical cutoff of 5 ng/ml.
Table 3 Area under the curve (AUC) for collagen IV, CEA and the combination of collagen IV + CEA
Table 4 Specificity, sensitivity, cutoff and accuracy for the calculated values based on the cohort for type IV collagen (COL IV) and the responding values when using the clinically recommended cutoff for CEA
The type IV collagen levels in the preoperative samples of patients with CLM (n = 94) were more frequently elevated (n = 76, 80.9 %) than the CEA level (n = 53, 56.4 %) (Fig. 3b), when using a calculated optimal cutoff value of 115 ng/ml for type IV collagen and the clinically recommended cutoff of 5 ng/ml for CEA. Of the patients, 93.6 % (n = 88) presented with at least one marker above these cutoff levels of 115 ng/ml for collagen IV and the clinical cutoff of 5 ng/ml (Fig. 3b). For CEA, six (6.4 %) patient samples were missing. These six patients all had collagen IV levels above the cutoff.
Low levels of type IV collagen and CEA are related to high survival
To study the prognostic value of a combination of tumour markers, a survival analysis based on both the IV collagen levels and CEA was performed. In this analysis, patients were grouped based on both markers being below the median value, one marker above median or both markers above the median (Fig. 4a). The correlation between the levels of circulating type IV collagen and CEA in relation to mortality revealed that patients with low levels of both markers (n = 18) had the best survival (92 %), patients with one marker above median (n = 44) displayed a survival of 70 % and patients with both markers elevated (n = 17) had the poorest survival of 47 % three years after surgery (Fig. 4a).
Circulating type IV collagen levels are not related to metastatic pattern of CLM
Two independent observers classified the metastatic growth pattern of the CLM, with an inter-rater agreement of 0.86. The different metastatic growth patterns are illustrated in Supplementary Fig. 1. For 27 patients, no tissue sample was available for analysis due to substantial tumour regression caused by chemotherapy and no viable cancer cells left (n = 16), the use of radiofrequency ablation (RFA) (n = 4), aborted surgery due to disseminated disease (n = 3) or missing samples (n = 4). The CLM growth pattern was thus classified in 67 patients (Fig. 1b).
The dominant pattern in each CLM was used for classification, and for the majority of cases (n = 58, 87 %), only one pattern was present. In some cases, the CLM were classified as mixed due to features of pushing, desmoplastic and replacement growth pattern (n = 9, 13 %). Several of the 67 patients included in the histological analysis had received some form of chemotherapy prior to liver surgery (n = 39, 58 %, Table 2). However, the metastatic pattern was still easy to define for most of these patients.
There was no relationship between the major types of CLM (desmoplastic and pushing) and the circulating collagen IV levels. The replacement type of CLM presented with normal type IV collagen levels, but this group was too small to allow for statistical analysis.
To eliminate the possible effects of preoperative oncological treatment on CLM growth pattern, patients that had not received any kind of chemotherapy at least 3 months prior to liver surgery (n = 28) were analysed separately (subcohort II). Patient characteristics of subcohort II are shown in Table 1. There was no significant difference in type IV collagen levels between the pushing and the desmoplastic group in subcohort II. The number of patients within the replacement and the mixed group were too small to allow for statistical comparison. Thus, there were no significant differences in the type IV collagen levels between desmoplastic and pushing type of CLM, regardless of whether they had received chemotherapy prior to surgery or not (p = 0.632 and p = 0.144, respectively).
The pushing type of CLM is related to poor survival
A Kaplan-Meier analysis of the patients with pushing (n = 36) and desmoplastic (n = 20) type of CLM revealed that patients with the pushing type had a poorer survival compared to the desmoplastic type of CLM (Fig. 4b). Sixteen patients (44 %) in the pushing group had died compared to two patients (10 %) in the desmoplastic group (p = 0.011). Due to few cases of the other metastatic patterns (replacement n = 2; mixed n = 9), they could not be statistically analysed.