Abstract
An application of stochastic modeling by means of diffusion processes to the forecasting of fruit size and caliber is presented in the present paper. In a first phase, a diffusion process that adequately fits the available data on the time of fruit growth is constructed and estimated. Then, a proposal is made for a procedure employing the probability transition distributions of the fitted process for the allocation of caliber to each fruit. Tables are constructed with the values that discriminate between calibers at the time of harvest, which allow us to make a prediction from each previous time instant. Finally, the mean conditional functions to predict the percentages of each size (fruit size distribution) at the time of harvest are considered. A practical application is presented to Valencia late oranges through a modified version of the Bertalanffy process. Such a process is modified by including in its trend a time-dependent function used to model the observed deviations in the data about the evolution of the diameter of oranges with respect to the trajectories of the original process.
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Román-Román, P., Torres-Ruiz, F. Forecasting Fruit Size and Caliber by Means of Diffusion Processes. Application to “Valencia Late” Oranges. JABES 19, 292–313 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13253-014-0172-3
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13253-014-0172-3