Abstract
We explore the ability of a process-based space–time model to decompose 8-hour ozone on a given day and site into parts attributable to local emissions and regional transport, to provide space–time predictions, and to assess the efficacy of past and future emission controls. We model ozone as created plus transported plus an error with seasonally varying spatial covariance parameters. Created ozone is a function of the observed NO x concentration, the latent VOC concentration, and solar radiation surrogates. Transported ozone is a weighted average of the ozone observed at all sites on the previous day, where the weights are a function of wind speed and direction. The latent VOC process mean includes emissions, temperature, and a workday indicator, and the error has seasonally varying spatial covariance parameters. Using likelihood methods, we fit the model and obtain one set of predictions appropriate for prediction backward in time, and another appropriate for predicting under hypothetical emission scenarios. The first set of predictions has a lower root-mean-squared error (RMSE) when compared to point observations than do the 36 km gridcell averages from the Community Mesoscale Air Quality Model (CMAQ) used by the EPA; the second set has the same RMSE as CMAQ, but under-predicts high ozone values.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Berrocal, V. J., Gelfand, A. E., and Holland, D. M. (2010), “A Spatio-Temporal Downscaler for Output from Numerical Models,” Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics, 15(2). doi:10.1198/jabes.2009.08075.
Bloomfield, P., Royle, J. A., Steinberg, L. J., and Yang, Q. (1996), “Accounting for Meteorological Effects in Measuring Urban Ozone Levels and Trends,” Atmospheric Environment, 30, 3067–3077.
Carroll, R., Chen, R., George, E., Li, T., Newton, H., Schmiediche, H., and Wang, N. (1997), “Ozone Exposure and Population Density in Harris County, Texas,” Journal of the American Statistical Association, 92, 392–404.
Cressie, N. A. C. (1993), Statistics for Spatial Data (revised ed.), New York: Wiley.
Davis, J. M., and Speckman, P. (1999), “A Model for Predicting Maximum and 8 h Average Ozone in Houston,” Atmospheric Environment, 33, 2487–2500.
Davis, J., Eder, B., Nychka, D., and Yang, Q. (1998), “Modelling the Effects of Meteorology on Ozone in Houston Using Cluster Analysis and Generalized Additive Models,” Atmospheric Environment, 32, 2505–2520.
Eder, B. K., Davis, J. M., and Bloomfield, P. (1993), “A Characterization of the Spatiotemporal Variability of Non-urban Ozone Concentrations Over the Eastern United States,” Atmospheric Environment, 27A, 2645–2668.
Eder, B., Davis, J., and Bloomfield, P. (1994), “An Automated Classification Scheme Designed to Better Elucidate the Dependence of Ozone on Meteorology,” Journal of Applied Meteorology, 33, 1182–1199.
EPA (2004), “The Ozone Report: Measuring Progress Through 2003,” Technical Report EPA 454/K-04-001, Environmental Protection Agency.
EPA (2006), “Air Quality Criteria for Ozone and Related Photochemical Oxidants,” Technical Report EPA 600/R-05/004aF, Environmental Protection Agency.
Gilleland, E., and Nychka, D. (2005), “Statistical Models for Monitoring and Regulating Ground-Level Ozone,” Environmetrics, 16, 535–546.
Guenther, A., Geron, C., Pierce, T., Lamb, B., Harley, P., and Fall, R. (2000), “Natural Emissions of Non-Methane Volatile Organic Compounds, Carbon Monoxide, and Oxides of Nitrogen from North America,” Atmospheric Environment, 34, 2205–2230.
Guttorp, P., Meiring, W., and Sampson, P. D. (1994), “A Space-Time Analysis of Ground-Level Ozone Data,” Environmetrics, 5, 241–254.
Huang, H.-C., and Hsu, N.-J. (2004), “Modeling Transport Effects on Ground-Level Ozone Using a Non-Stationary Space-Time Model,” Environmetrics, 15, 251–268.
Huerta, G., Sansó, B., and Stroud, J. R. (2004), “A Spatiotemporal Model for Mexico City Ozone Levels,” Applied Statistics, 53, 231–248.
Lehman, J., Swinton, K., Bortnick, S., Hamilton, C., Baldridge, E., Eder, B., and Cox, B. (2004), “Spatio-Temporal Characterization of Tropospheric Ozone Across the Eastern United States,” Atmospheric Environment, 38, 4357–4369.
McMillan, N., Bortnick, S. M., Irwin, M. E., and Berliner, L. M. (2005), “A Hierarchical Bayesian Model to Estimate and Forecast Ozone Through Space and Time,” Atmospheric Environment, 39, 1373–1382.
McNider, R. T., Norris, W. B., Song, A. J., Clymer, R. L., Gupta, S., Banta, R. M., Zamora, R. J., White, A. B., and Trainer, M. (1998), “Meteorological Conditions During the 1995 Southern Oxidants Study Nashville/Middle Tennessee Field Intensive,” Journal of Geophysical Research, 103, 22225–22243.
Meiring, W., Guttorp, P., and Sampson, P. D. (1998), “Space-Time Estimation of Grid-Cell Hourly Ozone Levels for Assessment of a Deterministic Model,” Environmental and Ecological Statistics, 5, 197–222.
Nail, A. J. (2007), “Quantifying Local Creation and Regional Transport Using a Hierarchical Space-Time Model of Ozone as a Function of Observed NOx, a Latent Space-Time VOC Process, Emissions, and Meteorology,” Dissertation, North Carolina State University. http://www.lib.ncsu.edu/theses/available/etd-08092007-123658.
National Research Council (1991), “Rethinking the Ozone Problem in Urban and Regional Air Pollution,” Technical Report, National Academy of Sciences, Washington, DC.
Porter, P., Rao, S., Zalewsky, E., Zurbenko, I., Henry, R., and Ku, J. (1996), “Statistical Characteristics of Spectrally-Decomposed Ambient Ozone Time Series Data,” Ozone Transport Assessment Group, Center for Air Pollution Impact and Trend Analysis. http://capita.wustl.edu/otag/reports/StatChar/otagrep.htm.
Rao, S. T., Zalewsky, E., and Zurbenko, I. G. (1995), “Determining Temporal and Spatial Variations in Ozone Air Quality,” Journal of the Air and Waste Management Association, 45, 57–61.
Rao, S., Zurbenko, I., Neagu, R., Porter, P., Ku, J., and Henry, R. (1997), “Space and Time Scales in Ambient Ozone Data,” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 78, 2153–2166.
Reynolds, J. H., Das, B., Sampson, P. D., and Guttorp, P. (1998), “Meteorological Adjustment of Western Washington and Northwest Oregon Surface Ozone Observations with Investigation of Trends,” Technical Report 015, National Research Center for Statistics and the Environment.
Reynolds, J. H., Caccia, D., Sampson, P. D., and Guttorp, P. (1999), “Meteorological Adjustment of Chicago, Illinois Regional Surface Ozone Observations with Investigation of Trends,” Technical Report 025, National Research Center for Statistics and the Environment.
Ryerson, T., Buhr, M. P., Frost, G. J., Goldan, P. D., Holloway, J. S., Hübler, G., Jobson, B. T., Kuster, W. C., McKeen, S. A., Parrish, D. D., Roberts, J. M., Sueper, D. T., Trainer, M., Williams, J., and Fehsenfeld, F. C. (1998), “Emissions Lifetimes and Ozone Formation in Power Plant Plumes,” Journal of Geophysical Research, 103, 22569–22583.
Ryerson, T., Buhr, M. P., Frost, G. J., Goldan, P. D., Holloway, J. S., Hübler, G., Jobson, B. T., Kuster, W. C., McKeen, S. A., Parrish, D. D., Roberts, J. M., Sueper, D. T., Trainer, M., Williams, J., and Fehsenfeld, F. C. (2001), “Observations of Ozone Formation in Power Plant Plumes and Implications for Ozone Control Strategies,” Science, 292, 719–723.
Sahu, S. K., Gelfand, A. E., and Holland, D. M. (2007), “High-Resolution Space-Time Ozone Modeling for Assessing Trends,” Journal of the American Statistical Association, 102, 1221–1234.
Zheng, J., Swall, J. L., Cox, W. M., and Davis, J. M. (2007), “Interannual Variation in Meteorologically Adjusted Ozone Levels in the Eastern United States: A Comparison of Two Approaches,” Atmospheric Environment, 41, 705–716.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Nail, A.J., Hughes-Oliver, J.M. & Monahan, J.F. Quantifying Local Creation and Regional Transport Using a Hierarchical Space–Time Model of Ozone as a Function of Observed NO x , a Latent Space–Time VOC Process, Emissions, and Meteorology. JABES 16, 17–44 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13253-010-0028-4
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13253-010-0028-4