Abstract
Land is the most important natural resource critical to agriculture in Africa. Out of 54 countries in Africa, Nigeria is the most populous (> 190 million) and the seventh largest in the world in 2017 with an annual population growth rate of 2.7%. Nigeria is the largest oil producer in Africa and the revenue from oil is not properly channeled towards the development of the nation’s agriculture and non-oil sectors. Oil exploration comes with its attendant problems. Consequently, the country drifted into the status of lower-middle-income status in 2014 far behind other oil-exporting countries with about 110 million (57%) of the population living below the poverty line. About 36.4% of the population is experiencing moderate-severe food insecurity. The population of the country had been predicted to reach 800 million in 2100 with the implication that there will be more demand for food to be produced on limited crop land (Rahmann et al. Org Agric 10:9–21, 2019). The projected land area to be available per person for farming in 2100 under medium assumption is only 504 m2 as against 2,100 m2 in 2019. In a bid to start addressing the impending food crisis, this paper discusses Nigeria’s population dynamics, available land per person to produce food, vegetables and fruits, and strategies to attain sustainable food and nutrition security in 2100.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Abii TA, Nwosu PC (2009) The effect of oil spillage on the soil of Elem in Rivers State of the Niger-Delta area of Nigeria. Res J Environ Sci 3:316–320
Adelana SO, Adeosun TA, Adesina AO, Ojuroye MO (2011) Environmental pollution and remediation: challenges and management of oil spillage in the Nigerian coastal areas. Am J of Sci and Ind Res 2:834–845. https://doi.org/10.5251/ajsir.2011.2.6.834.845
African Development Report (ADR) (2007) Natural resources for sustainable development in Africa. Published for the African Development Bank by Oxford University Press. Available at https://www.afdb.org/sites/default/files/documents/publications/african_development_report_2007.pdf checked 3/31/2020
African Development Report (ADR) (2013) African development report 2012. Towards Green Growtrh in Africa. https://afdb-org.jp/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/ADR_2012_Summary_Report_English.pdf checked 3/31/2020
Anonymous (2019a) Hunger relief in Africa. Nigeria action against hunger Available online at https://www.actionagainsthunger.org/countries/africa/nigeria checked on 8/6/2019
Anonymous (2019b) Nigeria – agriculture. Nigeria Country Commercial Guide Available online https://www.export.gov/article?1d+Nigeria+Agriculture checked on 8/6/2019
Anonymous (2019c) Nigeria- vegetables primary production quantity. Available online at https://knoema.com/atlas/Nigeria/topics/Agriculture/Crops-Production-Quantity-tonnes/Vegetables-primary-production-quantity(tonnes). checked on 12/8/19
Binswanger-Mkhize HP (2009) Challenges and opportunities for African agriculture and food security: high food prices, climate change, population frowth and HIV and Aids. Expert meeting on How to feed the world in 2050. Food and Agriculture of the United Nations Economic and Social Development. Available at www.fao.org/3/ak542e16.pdf checked 4/11/2020
Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) (2017) Statistical bulletin: external sector statistics. CBN, Abuja Retrieved from https://www.cbn.gov.ng/documents/Statbulletin.asp checked 4/13/2020
Diao X (2010) Economic importance of agriculture for sustainable development and poverty reduction: findings from a case study of Ghana. Paper presented at the Global Forum on Agriculture between 29 and 30 November 2010 On policies for agricultural development, poverty reduction and food security. Paris
Ebi BO, Amaraihu OC (2018) Agricultural expenditure, Maputo declaration target and agricultural output: a case study of Nigeria. Int J of Econ, Com and Man 6:516–531
FAO/WHO (2004) Fruit and vegetables for Health. A joint report by FAO/WHO on a workshop on 1–3 September, 2004, Kobe, Japan, p 39
FAOSTAT (2018) FAOSTAT database. Edited by food and agriculture organization of the United Nations. FAO. Rome. Available online at http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data,checked on 10/31/2018
Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (2015) National Agriculture Resilience Framework (NARF). In: Adegoke J, Ibe C, Araba A (eds) A report by the advisory committee on agricultural resilience in Nigeria. Retrieved from https://data.gov.ng/search/download-file?file=15-05-2019_6824_National+Agricultural+Resilience+Framework.pdf checked 4/10/2020
Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (2016a) The agricultural promotion policy (2016–2020). Building on the Successes of the ATA, Closing Key Gaps, p 59. Retrieved from https://ifpri.info/files/2017/12/2016-Nigeria-Agric-Sector-Policy-Roadma_June-15-2016_Final.pdf checked 2/4/2020
Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (2016b) PPP transaction for 33 silo complexes in Nigeria. Business case, p 124. Retrieved from https://ppp.icrc.gov.ng/media/384 checked 2/4/2020
Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (2020) Agricultural Policy for Nigeria, p 39. Retrieved from https://extwprlegs1.fao.org/docs/pdf/nig149296.pdf. Reprint. checked 4/10/2020
Fertilizer Suppliers’ Association of Nigeria (FESAN) and Federal Fertilizer Department (FDD) (2014). A study on consumption and fertilizer use by crops in Nigeria, p 53
FMARD (2012) Agricultural Transformation Agenda (ATA): Repositioning agriculture to drive Nigeria’s economy. Retrieved from https://queenscompany.weeby.com/uploads/3/8/2/5/38251671/agric-nigeria.pdf checked on 4/4/2020
Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO) (2019) The state of food security and nutrition in the world: safeguarding against economic slowdowns and downturns. Rome, p 239
Gwaambuka T (2018) Nigeria, Worlds’s 6th largest oil producer, Now World’s Largest Petrol Importer. The African Exponent. Retrieved from https://www.africanexponent.com/post/8882-nigeria-is-now-wrolds-largest-petrol-importer checked 3/30/2020
Hawkes C (2009) Identifying innovative interventions to promotehealthy eating using consumption-oriented food supply chain analysis. J Hunger Environ Nutr 4:336–356
Hoornweg D, Pope K (2017) Population predictions for the world’s largest cities in the 21st century. Environ Urban 29(1):195–216. https://doi.org/10.1177/0956247816663557
Ibeawuchi II, Okoli NA, Alagba RA, Ofor MO, Emma-Okafor LC, Peter-Onoh CA, Obiefuna JC (2015) Fruit and vegetable production in Nigeria: the gains, challenges and the way forward. J of Bio, Agric and Healthcare 5:194–208
Iwuchukwu JC, Igbokwe EM (2012) Lessons from agricultural policies and programmes in Nigeria. J of Law, Policy and Globalization 5:11–21
Mba IC, Mba EI, Ogbuabor JE, Arazu WO (2019) Causes and terrain of oil spillage in Niger Delta region of Nigeria: the analysis of variance approach. Int J Energy Econ Policy 9:283–287
Metu AG, Okeyika KO & Maduka OD (2016) Achieving sustainable food security in Nigeria: challenges and way forward. Paper presented at the 3rd international conference on African development issues (CU-ICADI 2016)
Ministry of Budget and National Planning (MBNP) (2016) National policy on food and nutrition in Nigeria, p 50. Retrieved from https://nigeria.savethechildren.net/sites/nigeria.savethechildren.net/files/library/NPFN%20manual%20design%20%20v13.pdf checked 4/10/2020
Mofeke ALE, Ahmada A, Mudiane OJ (2003) Relationship between yield and seasonal water use for tomatoes, onions and potatoes grown under fadama irrigation. ASSET Series A 3:33-46
Mohamadi B, Liu F, Xie Z (2016) Oil spill influence on vegetation in Nigeria and its determinants. Pol J Environ Stud 26:2522–2540
Nigeria Vision 20:2020 (2010) Nigeria Vision 20:2020. Abridged version, p 31. Retrieved from https://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/pdfuploads/Abridged_Version_of_Nigeria%20Vision%202020.pdf checked 4/6/2020
Nuga BO, Asimiea AO (2015) SWOT analysis of the Nigerian sector. J of Agric and Vet Sci 8:51–53
Nwokoye ES (2009) Population growth and distribution in Nigeria. In Ezenwa MO. Ed. Social Sciences at a glance 69-75
Obayelu AR, Obayelu OA (2014) Strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats (SWOT) analysis of the Nigerian agricultural transformation agenda (ATA). Nig J of Agric Econ 4:25–43
Ogbole ER (2015) Tax incentives in the agricultural industry. Being a term paper presented to the School of Post Graduate. Faculty of Law, Nasarawa State University, Keffi. Retrieved from https://www.academia.edu/17924202/tax_incentives_in_the_Agricultural_sector_in_Nigera checked 4/10/2020
Olasantan FO (1996) Meeting future vegetable needs in Nigeria: the potential role of out-of-season vegetables. Outlook on Agriculture 25:95–105
Olomola A, Nwafor M (2018) Nigeria agriculture sector performance review. A Background report for the Nigeria 2017 Agriculture Joint Sector Review, p 81. Retrieved from https://www.researchgate.net/punlication/327666294 checked 4/2/2020
Onwula EC (2006) Another look at the impact of Nigeria’s growing population on the country’s development. Afr Popul Stud 21:1–18
Onyekwena C (2019) Efficiency of food reserves in enhancing food security in developing countries: the Nigerian experience. Food Reseves Working Paper No. 7. Retrieved from https://www.africaportal.org/documents/19179/Food-Reserves-Working -Paper-No7.pdf checked 4/9/2020
Oyebanji MA, Mba CI (2014) Effects of oil spillage on community development in the Niger Delta Region: implications for the eradication of poverty and hunger (Millenium Development Goal 1) in Nigeria. World J of Soc Sci 1:27–33. http://wjss.sciedupress.com
PricewaterhouseCooper (PwC) (2019) Feeding 398 million people in Africa’s largest economy by 2050: food security challenges and agricultural innovations
Rahmann G, Reza AM, Bàrberi P, Boehm H, Canali S, Chander M et al (2017) Organic agriculture 3.0 is innovation with research. Org Agric 7(3):169–197. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13165-016-0171-5
Rahmann G, Grim D, Kuenz A, Hesel E (2019) Combining land-based organic and landless food production: a concept for a circular and sustainable food chain for Africa in 2100. Org Agric 10:9–21. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13165-019-00247-5
Sabo E, Zira DY (2009) Awareness and effectiveness of vegetable technology information packages by vegetable farmers in Adamawa state, Nigeria. Afr J of Agric Res 4:65–70
Thibiebi L (2018) An evaluation of Nigeria’s food import bill. Available online at https;//shipsandports.com.ng/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/AuduOgbeh. Checked on 8/11/2019
Tilman D, Balzer C, Hill J, Befort BL (2011) Global food demand and the sustainable intensification of agriculture. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 108(50):20260–20264. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1116437108
Uduor M (2016) Nigeria needs strategic reserves to curtail critical food shortages. Retrieved from https://www.africanews.com/2016/06/03/tomato-prices-soaring-in-nigeria-moth-invades-farms/ checked 4/9/2020
United Nations (2017a) World population prospects: the 2017 revision. Key findings & advance tables. Edited by United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. United Nations. New York
United Nations (2017b) “World population projected to reach 9.8 billion in 2050 and 11.2 billion in 2100” UN DESA United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs 21 June 2017
Vaughan IS, Afolami CA, Oyekale TO, Ayegbokiki AO (2014) An analysis of Nigeria food imports and bills. Int J of Econ, Com and Man 2:1–14
World Food Programme (2019) WFP emergency operations in Nigeria help people affected by the conflict. Country Brief, Nigeria https://www1.wfp.org/countries/nigeria checked 8/6/2019
Worldometer (2020) Nigeria population (live). Retrieved from https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/nigeria-population/ checked 4/14/2020
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Publisher’s note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Olowe, V. Africa 2100: how to feed Nigeria in 2100 with 800 million inhabitants. Org. Agr. 11, 199–208 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13165-020-00307-1
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13165-020-00307-1