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A Bayesian Belief Network Decision Support Tool for Watering Wetlands to Maximise Native Fish Outcomes

  • Murray Darling Basin
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Abstract

Wetlands are productive and diverse habitats for native fish but can be highly degraded, particularly in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB), south-eastern Australia. Wetland management requires tools and processes that facilitate the synthesis and application of knowledge for decisions concerning the allocation of environmental water to wetlands to improve environmental outcomes. This paper describes the development of a Decision Support Tool (DST), based on a Bayesian Network designed to provide the best available science and support adaptive management of environmental flows into wetlands. The DST predicts the probability of improvements in fish population health as defined by abundance, population structure and fish condition for introduced common carp and three native species of fish: carp gudgeon, Australian smelt, and golden perch. Model sensitivity and validation showed that fish response varied depending on model inputs, but that responses from the DST were an accurate reflection of fish responses in wetlands based on field data. Ultimately, the success of this DST is dependent on its adoption by wetland managers. Throughout the entire development process, adoption of the DST has been promoted through engagement with managers and subsequently, through initiatives to integrate it into current management initiatives.

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Acknowledgments

The authors would like to thank the managers who contributed to the development of the DST, especially the members of the project steering committee; Deb Nias, Keith Ward, Mark Lintermans, Jack Chubb, Fern Hames, Wayne Tennant and Janet Pritchard and two anonymous manuscript reviewers. The authors also thank Drs Darren Baldwin and Clayton Sharpe for contributing to the development of the DSS in areas of their expertise. The project was funded by the Australian National Water Commission through their Raising National Water Standards Program. This Australian Government program supports the implementation of the National Water Initiative by funding projects that are improving Australia’s national capacity to measure, monitor and manage its water resources

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Murray-Darling Freshwater Research Centre, PO Box 991, Wodonga, Vic., 3689, Australia

    Ben Gawne, Amina Price, Daryl L. Nielsen, Shaun Meredith & Lorenzo Vilizzi

  2. La Trobe University, Wodonga, Vic., 3689, Australia

    Ben Gawne, Amina Price & Lorenzo Vilizzi

  3. Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental Research, 123 Brown St., Heidelberg, 3084, Australia

    John D. Koehn, Alison J. King & Leah Beesley

  4. CSIRO Land and Water, PO Box 991, Wodonga, Victoria, 3689, Australia

    Daryl L. Nielsen

Authors
  1. Ben Gawne
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  2. Amina Price
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  3. John D. Koehn
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  4. Alison J. King
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  5. Daryl L. Nielsen
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  6. Shaun Meredith
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  7. Leah Beesley
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  8. Lorenzo Vilizzi
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Correspondence to Ben Gawne.

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Gawne, B., Price, A., Koehn, J.D. et al. A Bayesian Belief Network Decision Support Tool for Watering Wetlands to Maximise Native Fish Outcomes. Wetlands 32, 277–287 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13157-011-0255-7

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