Abstract
The long-term spatio-temporal variability in twelve rainfall indices across Tapi basin are investigated for period 1944–2013. The temporal trends in aforesaid indices, representing magnitude, intensity, frequency and duration of rainfall, are analysed using non-parametric tests. The total annual rainfall exhibit uniformly increasing trends over Lower Tapi basin (LTB), while heterogeneous trends are observed across Upper (UTB) and Middle (MTB) Tapi basins. The rainy days portrays decreasing trends at 75% stations in the basin, while rainfall intensity displays increasing trends across LTB and UTB. On other hand, LTB and Purna sub-catchment (in UTB) show coherent increasing trends in extreme rainfall, while decreasing trends are observed over Burhanpur sub-catchment (in UTB) and MTB. A considerable increase in duration of dry spells is reported at 92.5% stations in the basin, indicating a marked shift towards drier climatic regime. Further, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is carried out to address the space-time variability of rainfall indices. The results of PCA were adopted in cluster analysis to identify the stations exhibiting similar characteristic variations in rainfall trends. The hydroclimatic teleconnections between rainfall indices and large-scale oceanic-atmospheric circulations of the tropical Pacific Ocean (viz., El Niño-Southern Oscillation) revealed the prevalence of wet conditions in the basin during moderate to strong La-Niña, while dry conditions were encountered during moderate to strong El-Niño and weak La-Niña events. The spatial estimates of rainfall indices are derived corresponding to 2-, 10- and 50-year return periods which would be helpful in hydrologic design and risk assessment of rainfall-induced disasters in near future.
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Acknowledgements
The authors would like to acknowledge the financial support received from Indian National Committee on Climate Change (INCCC) sponsored research project ‘Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources of Tapi Basin’, under Ministry of Jal Shakti, Department of Water Resources, River Development & Ganga Rejuvenation (DoWR,RD&GR), Government of India vide their letter no. 16/22/2016-R&D/3059-3076 dated November 7, 2016. The authors would also appreciate the infrastructural support provided by Centre of Excellence (CoE) on ‘Water Resources and Flood Management’, TEQIP-II, Ministry of Human Resources Development (MHRD), Government of India and project "Identification of Trend in Future Daily Precipitation in Tapi Basin due to Climate Change" funded by Institute Seed Research Grant, SVNIT, Surat. The third author wishes to acknowledge the financial support received from Department of Science and Technology (DST), Ministry of Science and Technology, Government of India vide their letter no. DST/INSPIRE Fellowship/2015/IF150634 dated January 11, 2016. The authors express their gratitude towards India Meteorological Department (IMD), Pune for the rainfall data reported in present study. The contribution from the anonymous reveiwers and editor in improving quality of this manuscript is higly acknowledged.
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Gehlot, L.K., Jibhakate, S.M., Sharma, P.J. et al. Spatio-Temporal Variability of Rainfall Indices and their Teleconnections with El Niño-Southern Oscillation for Tapi Basin, India. Asia-Pacific J Atmos Sci 57, 99–118 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13143-020-00179-1
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13143-020-00179-1